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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives 30% of your lost wagers.
This blog is based on finding winners - if you want to lose your money then read another blog.
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 29 September 2015

Terrific 11/2 winner for the blog

A terrific result for the blog on Saturday with OSCAR ROCK – the only selection given – becoming out first winner of the 2015-16 Jumps season.   Advised at 11/2 in the morning, as expected the odds shortened to an SP of 4/1.  The advised wager of £5 eachway returned a profit of £33, which means that both advised wagers this jump season have returned a profit – totalling £38 for stakes of £20.

OSCAR ROCK won with a lot in hand, and he should be able to cope with a 7lb adjustment from the handicapper,  and the way he stayed-on suggests he may even have the stamina for 3-mile.

This is the benefit of having put together an alert list based on proven performers that look well-handicapped – it gives us the confidence to exploit their form when they reach the track.

It was a bit disappointing that there were only 40 “hits” on the blog on Saturday prior to the race being run.  After the race was run and I “bragged” about the wining advice on twitter, there were a number of messages from followers saying they hadn’t realised that I’d published a blog in the morning.  Fair enough, there have only been a few blogs since April so regular readers will have dropped the habit of visiting the blog.  So, I would be interested to know if there are any readers out there who are interested in receiving blogs sent directly to their email address?

If you are interested in receiving the blog via an email, drop me a line at idykes@btinternet.com
Also, would you be interested in making a contribution for this service? Either per week, or per month; or on a results basis; or not at all.


In the meantime, I will continue writing the blog and uploading in the usual manner as and when there is a likely wager. 

Saturday, 26 September 2015

1st blood to Wayward Lad

The first advised wager of the 2015-16 Jumps season returned a profit when CLOUDY BOB came home 3rd and well clear of the 4th horse in the opening race of the afternoon at Worcester.  My advice was to take the morning odds of 10/1 eachway (at 5th odds a place), so the advised wager returned a profit of £5.  When CLOUDY BOB gets soft ground we should see him in the winners enclosure.

The other runner from my alert list was Upswing, and he ran a confidence boosting race to be 2nd (beaten a long way) and looks likely to improve on that placing with a more positive ride.

Onto today, and we have an attractive meeting at Market Rasen over the jumps, as well as the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket on the flat. The "Listed" handicap chase at 2:50 at Market Rasen over an extended 2m5f is my focus, as I have a couple of horses in the race from my alert list. They are Oscar Rock and Valco De Touzaine; with Oscar Rock being the likely race fav at 4/1. Todays ground and trip will be perfect for Oscar Rock, so the only issue is whether there is a better handicapped horse in the race to beat him. the 2nd-fav Gray Hession pushed a decent yardstick to the limit LTO when winning at Southwell for the 2nd time in succession, but he has been raised 8lb for that narrow win and looks vulnerable. The current 3rd-fav at 5/1 is my other alert horse, Valco De Touzaine who comes here on the back of a solid performance at Newton Abbot last month and so holds no fitness issues. However, he didn't perform too well when 3rd here at Market Rasen in the Summer Plate Chase in July when 3rd in that race beaten 12-lengths and he will need to improve on that performance to win today.

Others in the race include Cloud Creeper, currently 7/1, who improved in leaps and bounds last season and ended the season rated OR152. He could well find further improvement to win today. I don't think I can say the same of Gold Futures, who looks like he'd prefer 3-mile than todays shorter trip. Edgardo Sol can occasionally throw in a cracking run, as he did at Cheltenham last December over a similar trip. But, all too often, he runs without any zip about 7lbs below the level of his current OR145 rating. If he's  on a good day, and we won't know that till the race moves into the closing stages, then he will prove hard to beat - but generally he likes a bit of "give" in the ground to show his best.

Overall, this looks a tricky race, hence the betting is 9/2 the field, and you could could wager on the 1st-3 in the market and still not have the winner. I think OSCAR ROCK is the least exposed and I have taken the 11/2 that is being offered by a number of bookies at the moment. Those odds won't last long and I expect him to start the 4/1 fav, maybe even 7/2.

Selection:
Market Rasen 2:50, OSCAR ROCK, £5 ew @ 11/2 (Bet365 and Betfred, both go 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total Staked = £10

Friday, 25 September 2015

Alert List update is completed - let battle commence!

The alert list review has been completed and is now ready for the 2015-16 Jumps season.

After a major culling, the list is down to just 99 horses (at one point last season there were over 240 on the Alert List) of which less than a handful are 9yo, with nothing older. 
The list revolves around a select bunch of 2nd-season chasers, filled with potential; and talented hurdlers which have the potential to become useful novice chasers.

Those that have been omitted from the list are either:-
- too old: there won’t be many decent handicap chases won by a 10yo or older this autumn;
- too exposed: when a horse has run more than 15 times the handicapper usually has their measure;
- too high in the handicap: some horses attract the handicappers attention early;
- have been injured too long: I can allow a horse a season off the track but, if they are off the scene any longer it is unlikely they will come back. There is no room for sentiment;
- or have been retired: those old hands that have left the scene include the likes of  Goulanes, Molotof, Nuts N Bolts, Pullyourfingerout, Sizing Santiago, and Sydney Paget; although some of these "retired" horses may end up hunter-chasing.

However, there are about 25 new additions to the alert list (that is horses that were not on the list last April) following a recent review of the form from last season.

The plan is to advise readers of the blog when alert list runners are racing, and to advise whether optimum conditions exist to warrant a wager. For many on the list, optimum conditions are not a prerequisite to a wager – simply following them when they next run is the advice.


Now the alert list update is over, I can use my available time to work on my Cheltenham Festival Trends update, which forms part of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin.  If you have the time, I’d recommend taking a look at the Festival races from March again –this time, with the benefit of having the formbook open alongside.  You can pick up what are (hopefully) terrific pointers for the coming season. For instance, there is one horse in particular that I've noted that ran a terrific race over a trip that wasn’t his optimum, and that was after an interrupted preparation too.  He’s not gone up in the weights for that effort and, if he’s placed over his optimum trip and ground this autumn he could scoot in.  I reckon he has about 10lb in-hand over his current handicap rating.

There are a couple off the alert list running today at Worcester:-
CLOUDY BOB in the 1:50 at Worcester and UPSWING in the 2:20 at Worcester.

I like CLOUDY BOB as he's a genuine horse who usually gives his best. The ground isn't soft enough for him to be at his best, but this looks a weak race and he could sneak a win at long odds; he is currently 10/1 with BetVictor and Paddy Power. I do not think the race-fav Hawaii Five Nill will stay this trip, Valadom is more interesting, but he will need to improve on his debut 16-days ago to win this. He also looked like this 2m4f trip is possibly more than he wants.  CLOUDY BOB last won last November (10-months ago) off OR121, and he races off a 2lb lower rating today. Ignore his last couple of runs as they were beyond his stamina limits.  Instead, focus on his run off OR122 at Kempton last February where he was only beaten by the progressive Comeonginger in a quick time for the ground.  He's worth an eachway wager today.

Beginners chases would not be many peoples betting medium, and therefore I cannot recommend a wager on UPSWING. That said, he has the best hurdle form of this field, and he stays 3-mile. Unfortunately, he did not look like a natural jumper of a fence when we saw him last season, so it has to be hoped that he's been well schooled since. This is a race to watch.

Selection:
Worcester 1:50 CLOUDY BOB, £5 eachway at 10/1 (with Bet Victor or Paddy Power, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total Staked = £10

Tuesday, 15 September 2015

The countdown to the Jumps season

The first proper blog of the 2015-16 jumps season and I've spent a bit of time updating the results section from last season, which was one of the best since the blog started in March 2000.
For the 2010-11 season, the blog achieved a 9.19% ROI (Return on Investment);
In 2011-12, the ROI was 16.21%
In 2012-13, the ROI was a magnificent 48.0% (50.675pts profit on 105.50pts staked)
In 2013-14, the ROI was 19.19%
And, for last season, 2014-15, the ROI was 39.34%
That's 5 successive jumps seasons in profit for the season, and this blog is FREE!

The blog alert list is taking shape, and I reckon I've found some cracking handicappers - plus I've been in contact with a few trainers and checked up on the status of some old favourites of the blog. My premise is that horses do not get quicker with age, but they do get more proficient at jumping hurdles or fences, and they get better at pacing themselves.
My aim is to spot the ability and speed early in a horses career, and follow them as they become experienced through racing, gaining proficiency and stamina, and (hopefully) winning along the way as they stay ahead of the handicapper.

Last seasons winners included Foxcub @ 11/1; Brick Red @ 4/1; Annacotty @ 6/1; Balder Succes @ 4/1; Milborough @ 20/1; and the icing on the cake was a tremendous antepost wager on a horse that was added to my alert list on 2nd January 2013 after winning a 3-mile novice hurdle at Cheltenham on 12th December 2012, and turned out to be the Gold Cup winner of 2015 - CONEYGREE, advised at 12/1 after winning at Newbury in February.

You won't find me advising wagers on many horses older than 9yo, and you certainly won't find me advising wagers on horses at short odds.  I have a minimum odds cut-off of 9/4, and I do not wager over the the jumps (hurdles or fences) at shorter odds than that.  There will be some losing runs - at one point last season we were down about £120, which is equivalent to 12pts on a £10 per point staking system, but we came roaring back to be over £350 up after the Cheltenham Festival. And we were close on the opening day of the Festival to striking a major eachway double with both advised selections being placed at odds of 16/1 and 22/1.

As per last season, all wagers will be advised in cash terms, ie the advised wager is £10 win etc.  To keep things simple, the staking plan is £10 per point, however I know that there are a few of you out there who wager more than this on my selections. Myself, I wager £40 a point on my selections - but you can wager whatever you feel comfortable with. I advise wagers in cash terms as I do receive a fair few emails from readers who are not sure how to operate a points based staking system.

There was no Cheltenham Festival Bulletin last season due to the pressures of my day-job (I do work for a living), but I'm planning on publishing a Bulletin in February.  If you want that Bulletin, you have two options:-
1) During the course of this season, donate at least £10 from any winnings from successful wagers that I may advise on the blog, or
2) When the blog becomes available in February, donate £10 then.

Over the course of the season, I will be putting in over 60 hours of research (probably more like double that) into the Cheltenham Festival and if you want to benefit from that, then I think it's only fair that you make a contribution.

So then, here's to hoping that this season will be as good as the last.  Unfortunately, one long term supporter of the blog, and an old friend for nearly 30 years, won't be reading this. But he's not forgotten, and I'm sure he's looking over my shoulder now.

All the best for the jumps season, from Wayward Lad.