Welcome to the World of Horseracing
LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87
from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)
Total Staked = £609.00
Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.
Saturday, 14 March 2015
Yesterday morning, after a night of rain and with rain continuing to fall on Cheltenham, there was a slight doubt in my mind that Coneygree would be able to make-all on ground that was very likely to be soft. I truly thought that Nicholls would order that Silviniaco Conti to push on and make a move on the 2nd-circuit but, as they headed up the hill, Coneygree pushed on harder from the front and you could see some serious horses (Bobs Worth, Sam Winner, Houblon Des Obeaux) starting to struggle and lose touch. At this point, Silviniaco Conti was in 5th and tho' he did take closer order, I knew he wasn't going to win. As they reached the top-of-the-hill, Coneygree came back to the following group, and I thought he may be starting to feel the pinch, but his jockey was just giving him a breather. At that point, I thought the main danger was Many Clouds. However, as they turned the corner to come down the hill again, Coneygree picked up the pace and soon there was only the Irish pair Road To Riches and Djakadam going with him. This race certainly identified the plodders from the quality horses. Some exemplary jumping from Coneygree, who was only having his 4th chase race, kept him to the fore, and his stamina never failed him as he galloped resolutely to the line.
This was a seriously better quality Gold Cup than the 2014 renewal won by Lord Windermere (who pulled-up this time never having improved from a tailed-off last position). I've rated the race thru' Road To Riches who I thought ran a cracker. Remember, Road to Riches beat Rocky Creek (now rated OR163) by 11-lengths at level-weights last November. I reckon Road To Riches ran a career-best of 168, which is 3lbs better than I rated him when he beat Rocky Creek. That puts Coneygree on 171, which is 10lbs better than the rating I gave Lord Windermere when he won the Gold Cup last year. This works in nicely with Holywell (beaten nearly 10-lengths into 4th) who matched his highest rating in my book of 162. The surprise of the race for me was the 6yo Djakadam, who himself was only having his 6th chase race. He completely defied my opinion of him and finally showed why there was such a gamble on him for the Hennessy Gold Cup last November, a race he competed in off a rating of OR142. It was only lack of racing experience that cost him that day as he was at least 20lbs well-in.
Coneygree's win has made this jump season the best ever for me and those who follow the blog selections.
PROFIT = £337.12
Total Staked = £595.00
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Friday, 13 March 2015
The performance of the day, perhaps the meeting (we will see) was Vautour in the JLT Novices Chase over 2m4f - absolutely stunning performance.
Overnight rain may have softened the ground.
No advised wager, but worth a "tickle".
It is very likely that readers will have already formed an opinion on which horse they will be supporting in the Gold Cup. It is that sort of race, a race of strong opinions and the taking of sides. Virtually nothing that I write here will persuade anyone to alter their opinion. Last year I was solidly behind Silviniaco Conti and he looked the most likely winner jumping the 2nd-last fence. However, he's a stayer with no change of gear and was unable to withstand the challenge of others on the run-in. Even so, he wasn't beaten much, and I expect this year he will be sent on earlier and make it a real stamina test on the 2nd-circuit.
I've had an eachway wager on Coneygree at 12/1 antepost, and he could be the one that beats him as he is unexposed at this level and we've seen already this week how bold jumping front-runners can dominate chase races.
No further selections as I'll hopefully be on the Guiness aftger the Gold Cup.
Wednesday, 11 March 2015
1:30 JLT Novices Chase (2-miles & 4-furlongs)
The day opens with the 5th running of this intermediate distance championship race for novice chasers. Race trends are thin on the ground. That said,
· All 4 winners have been rated (at one time) OR142 or better meeting the same criteria of “Arkle” winners and were above average hurdlers.
- All 4 previous winners contested a hurdle at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival.
I’d stick to the tried and trusted LTO winners (certainly no worse than 2nd) selection method. This is a tough 2m4f, so your selection should have proven stamina over this trip but not, in my opinion, a win over trips in excess of 2m6f – that is a negative.
Just about the entire field meet the criteria, so looking just on chase form I'm of the opinion that PTIT ZIG is the best value in the race. I'm not convinced the form of Vautour is strong enough, and possibly trainer Mullins is of the same opinion which is why he also has Valseur Lido in the race. Odds of 7/2 don't leave much room for error.
No wager advised.
· 15 of last 22 winners carried between 10st 7lb and 11st 3lb (both of the last 2 winners carried more than 11st 3lb);
· 11 of the last 23 winners won LTO.
A maximum field and not one to take a short price on. Even so, the Henderson horse CALL THE COPS won with a fair bit in hand LTO only 12-days ago and has just a 5lb penalty for that win.
· Winning course form at Cheltenham – 9 of the 10 winners previous winners had won at Cheltenham (Riverside Theatre in 2012 was the exception).
· Winning form in a Grade 1 chase – 6 of the last 7 winners (since the Ryanair became a Grade 1 chase) had previously won a Grade 1 chase (Imperial Commander in 2009 was the only exception).
· The Irish have yet to win the race.
The fav is Don Cossack and he has the best form going into the race, but my worry is that the ground may be a bit quick for him as his best form is on soft. I prefer the chance of the mare Ma Filleule who, if repeating last years performance here will go close (she was 2nd to Holywell in the handicap chase). Balder Succes is very consistent and he needs to improve to win this. Johns Spirit ticks a lot of boxes in this, but may not be quite good enough. Foxrock looks the type who wants 3-mile. Hidden Cyclone had his chance last year (ran 2nd) and is too old at 10yo. Both Tarquin De Seuil and Eduard aren't good enough and neither are the rest of the field. Not an easy race to fathom and, if pushed for a win wager, it would have to be Ma Filleule. However, Johns Spirit was running well in the King George when last seen until his stamina gave way and this trip is his best. At 11/1 with Paddy Power he looks the best eachway wager as he always runs a good race.
Johns Spirit, £5 eachway @ 11/1 (Paddy Power)
All bookies are quarter-odds a place 1,2,3.
· The betting market is usually good at highlighting the winner and it is unlikely that the winner will not be amongst the 1st-4 in the betting (certainly at odds less than 10/1);
· It is very likely that the winner will have run at last year’s Cheltenham Festival;
· The last horse to win this after taking part in a Champion Hurdle was Nomadic Way in 1992.
The overall quality of this years race is below the usual standard, hence we have a massive 17 runners. I feel that Zarkandar should have gone close last year if he was good enough (I had my money on him) and he's not shown that he's improved this season. I was on Cleeve Hurdle winner Saphir Du Rheu when he won here in January, and for me that is the best form in the race - and I think he's capable of better! I think Lieutenant Colonel will be outclassed, and Whisper should be close but he's never been as good as Saphir. The only other potential winner Un Temps Pour Tout will need to find about 15lb of improvement on his run LTO and I can't have him. Paddy Power go 6/1 Saphir Du Rheu and that looks great value as I think he should be the clear fav at about 7/2.
Saphir Du Rheu, £5 win AND £5 eachway @ 6/1 with Paddy Power (BOG, and quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
· 20 of the last 22 winners were rated between OR128 – OR141;
· Irish trainers have only won this race once since 1951.
You places your money and you take you chance - good luck!
As such, the overall interpretation of the long-term weight trends for this race are changing as most of the field will be carrying more than 11st.
· Only 6 of the last 35 winners was a 7yo;
· Last year Spring Heeled was the first Irish trained winner since Greasepaint in 1983.
Being amateur ridden, you need to consider the talents of the jockeys - as happened earlier in the meeting with the excellent JJ Codd winning on Cause Of Causes. I reckon the winner will be ridden be one of the followind, Codd, O'Connor, Carroll, Waley-Cohen, Bannister or Legg as the winning jockey is always one of the best amateurs. The one I like the look of is the 7yo Clondaw Knight ridden by JT Carroll as this horse was going to be my selection in the opening days handicap chase but has been diverted to this instead. He is improving, stays 3-mile, handles the ground and is usually ridden handy to the pace. Odds of 20/1 with Paddy Power and BetVictor look generous to me.
Clondaw Knight, £5 eachway @ 20/1 (Bet Victor or Paddy Power both BOG and quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Tuesday, 10 March 2015
Both selections were placed, and returned profits of £22.50 (Indian Castle) and £15.00 (Horizontal Speed) respectively making £37.50 in total. I also had a personal eachway double that paid over 15/1.
Not only that, but I gave a very strong word for the winner Cause Of Causes, who won with a fair bit in hand.
There will be a complete review of the Festival in the next week or so on the blog.
1:30 Neptune Novices Hurdle (2-miles & 5-furlongs)
A select field of 10 runners for this, perhaps the best novice hurdle on the calendar.
Essentialy, you are looking for a LTO winner with at least 3 hurdle runs. of which at least 2 have been wins.
Given the performance of horses from his stable yesterday, you have to respect the chances of his runners Nichols Canyon and Outlander in this race. NICHOLS CANYON looks the best of the Mullins pair, and they are likely to be well ahead of the English challengers. The odds of 4/1 on Nichols Canyon look very generous.
2:05 RSA Novices Chase (3-miles & 110 yards)
Again, you are looking for a horse with at least 3 chase starts and at least 9 NH starts (don't included NH Flat races). Experience here is the key to finding the winner, but you don't want to side with a top-class hurdler - no winner in 23 years had been placed in a Graded or Listed hurdle over a trip less than 2m3f
Yet another Mullins novice, this time a chaser in Don Poli. However, I think he will come unstuck in this race due top lack or experience. It won't be The Young Master (not shown he's up to this class), nor Kings Palace (who ran a stinker here last year), but by SOUTHFIELD THEATRE. This horse was just beaten in the 3-mile Pertemps Final handicap hurdle last year, and since then he's done nothing wrong. He looks an tremendous chaser in the making and odds of 15/2 with Paddy Power are great eachway value.
2:40 Coral Cup handicap hurdle
Not a great race for me and I'll maybe come back to this later.
It is not unusual for horses carrying big weights to do well in this race.
You need to look for a horse on the upgrade, preferably with no more than 3 runs this season.
Unusually, this is a race for which a runner needs to come into off a long break, ie more than 45-days.
3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (2-miles)
Much will be written about this race, but for me I'm sticking with SPRINTER SACRE. His run LTO was on a par with the effort from Sire De Grugy, yet the manner in which they raced was very different. Of the others, there is some interest for Champagne Fever who could run them ragged if he's in the form of his Arkle 2nd last year. However, odds of 7/2 look far too big about SPRINTER SACRE.
SPRINTER SACRE, £10 win @ 7/2
Note: I have already struck an antepost wager for £20 @ 11/4 on SPRINTER SACRE
Monday, 9 March 2015
Before we get stuck into the runners & riders for Day 1 of the Festival a quick reminder that the most important Festival trends to take account of are:-
It all hinges on the performance of the race fav Douvan who is expected to win convincingly. I'm going to oppose him with QEWY, who won in impressive fashion LTO and should handle the ground. The odds of 14/1 look fairly generous for a horse who looks capable or running 10lb+ better than he did LTO. No advised wager from me on this race.
2:05pm Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, (2-miles)
2:40pm Festival Handicap Chase (3-miles & 110 yards)
INDIAN CASTLE, £5 eachway @ 22/1 (Betfred and Bet Victor who both go 5-places eachway)
3:20pm Champion Hurdle (2-miles & 110 yards)
No advised wager.
4:00pm David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (2-miles & 4-furlongs)
4:40pm National Hunt Challenge Cup for Amateur Riders (4-miles)
The top-rated are: Cause Of Causes (OR146), Return Spring (OR140), Sego Success (OR143), Thunder And Roses (OR148), Very Wood (OR147). Perfect Gentleman at 10yo is too okl to win this. The obvious candidates are LTO winners Sego Success and Very Wood who have terrific riders in Same Waley-Cohen and Nina Carberry respectively. However, I think CAUSE OF CAUSES has been aimed at this race all season and he has the excellent JJ Codd in the saddle. Unfortunately 8/1 is the best odds you will find.
5:15pm Centenary Novices Handicap Chase (2-miles & 4½-furlongs)
Two that fit the bill are Generous Ransom and Horizontal Speed.
Generous Ransom won a very exciting race at the trials meeting in January LTO and could be well handicapped on OR136. He won't be far away and neither will be Horizontal Speed who come here prepared by Phil Hobbs who knows what is required to win this race. Odds of 16/1 with Bet Victor who also goes 5-place eachway looks generous.
HORIZONTAL SPEED. £5 eachway @ 16/1 (Bet Victor who goes 5-places eachway)
Good luck all.
Saturday, 7 March 2015
My last couple of antepost wagers are on SPRINTER SACRE for the Champion Chase and CONEYGREE for the Gold Cup. I'm fairly confident about Sprinter Sacre mainly as I think the 2-mile chaser division is weak. I know that there are a lot of Sire De Grugy fans who think I will be eating my works come next Wednesday afternoon, and there are also more than a few supporters of Champagne Fever who are expecting that one to make-all under an enterprising ride. But I'm happy with 11/1 on Sprinter Sacre.
Coneygree is a tricky one, as it looks more likely that he will run in the RSA Novice Chase instead of the Gold Cup, but I think that will be a mistake. For one, he may not be fit next season, and I'm a "strike when the iron's hot" person. The ground will be in his favour, he's in tip-top form, and he has few miles on the clock.
No selections today. I'm concentrating on putting my draft blogs together for next week.