Later on
the same card, the novice handicap chase went to Brick Red, and so provided
another winner for trainer Venetia Williams. After a period of what looked a
decline into a middle-ranking trainer from 2007 to 2012, she has bounced back
to the top rank with 90 winners last season and she’s now on 53 winners this
season. While still some way off the heady strike-rates achieved between 1997 to
2001 when she regularly hit over 26% of wins to runs, it seems (no doubt) that
her Grand National win in 2009 with Mon Mome has brought her a new influx of
owners and young horses which is now coming to fruition. BRICK RED was better
suited by Wincanton than Newbury and, as sharper tracks seem to suit this horse
best, he could be an OR145+ horse in the making. I did think the ratings
for both Tresor De Bontee (OR122) and Close House (OR138) were on the high side,
and so it proved.
Just a single
jump race meeting today at Catterick. There is a “jumpers bumper” meeting at Kempton
to give horses a racecourse outing , but I am giving that a wide berth. The
first couple of races on the card at Catterick are not my cup-of-tea being a selling
hurdle and a juvenile hurdle. Then the 5-runner novice handicap chase at 2:10
looks very tricky to solve. The novice hurdle at 2:45 looks to be a “match”
between Vice Et Vertu and Classic Move, so there’s no value to be found there.
The Class
3 handicap hurdle over 3m1f & 110 yards looks more interesting as although
the fav Campbonnais won well over 2m4f LTO, it was only a Class 5 race. He may
have been a decent 3-mile chaser a couple of years ago, but he’s lost his way
since then and was never much to write home about as a hurdler. As such, I’d be
happy to oppose him in this race, but what with? It is interesting that Duke Of
Monmouth returns to hurdles after losing interest in chasing. As far as ability
goes, he’s lost none judging by his win at Uttoxeter in November, so off a mark
of OR118 which is just 1lb above his last winning hurdle rating (07Nov12 at
Warwick over 3m1f on soft) he could be worth a wager. Add the use of 1st-time blinkers
and this could be an opportunity for DUKE OF MONMOUTH to run a lot better than
his current odds of 22/1 (Stan James).
The next
race on the card, a Class 3 handicap chase over 2m3f looks competitive.
Chicklemix did me no favours LTO when beating my selection Free World, but the
mare was hard-ridden to win that day and the 6lb hike to OR114 looks harsh. The
fav is Pearls Legend needs to improve his jumping and I’ve also a feeling that
his rating is a bit on the high side too, so he’s opposable. Billy Cuckoo ran
well here LTO over C&D, but he needs things to fall right for him so he can
win. That regular rider Dougie Costello has passed over the ride for stablemate
Qoubilai is not a positive. The mare Kykate was going well and looking like
winning when being brought-down 3-out LTO, and this slightly shorter trip will
be in her favour. Granville Island is more of a 2-mile horse and soft ground
does not bring the best out in him, and the same can be said for Arctic Ben,
tho’ he does stay 2m4f. As such, KYKATE is the horse which I think is most
likely to be in front at the finish unless the fav Pearls Legend gets his jumping
together. Not an easy race and, at odds of 4/1, there’s no real value in
KYKATE.
Selection:
Catterick
3:20 DUKE OF MONMOUTH, £5 eachway @ 22/1 with Stan James (5th odds a
place, best odds guaranteed)
Total =
£10 staked
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