We opened yesterday with a winner when
VIOLET DANCER won easily at the very attractive odds of 9/4. As I wrote, if the
fav Sweet Deal was trained by anyone else other than Nicky Henderson, then
VIOLET DANCER would be odds-on – “I think odds of 6/4 are good value.“
At times, I wish I was at the races rather than at my office desk as, at 9/4
VIOLET DANCER would have been a 2pt or £80 win wager. This is why I
write a narrative behind my selections: At less than 9/4 (the minimum
odds at which I advise a wager) VIOLET DANCER was a “no-bet”, but – at 9/4 – he
was serious good value, and I hope readers took advantage.
Unfortunately, our blog selection
MERRION SQUARE was 2nd and went down by just a neck! despite
looking the most likely winner at the final fence. I was certainly expecting a
big run, and that’s what we got, but it was not enough on the day. Still, we
only lost a few quid thanks to the place wager.
I was right to side-step Foundation
Man, who looked a bit jaded and never justified being the 11/4 joint fav in the
race won by The Italian Yob. Don’t give up on Foundation Man tho’, being a half
bro’ to Captain Chris he’ll make good use of his lenient OR120 rating.
Unfortunately, Rolling Aces was undone tactically by jockey Jamie Moore on Vino
Griego. The pace was never strong enough in this 3-runner race and Vino Griego
was able to stalk Rolling Aces and pick him off on the run-in. Harry Topper was
exposed as a poor jumper of a fence. Finally yesterday, Bally Legend
scraped-home by a nose as he idled in front and was almost caught on the line.
As I wrote yesterday, Caroline Keevil’s horses don’t run well at Exeter (she’s
now only 3 wins from 61 runners there) and I’m glad I took the early 100/30 to
small money.
Onto today and what a cracking day of
racing we have ahead, with meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow and Wetherby.
Before I go on, I have written a “Guest Blog” for the website www.gallopslive.com under my blog
name of Wayward Lad, and the race I have chosen to focus on is the Becher
Chase. Please take a visit to the site via the link as there is plenty going on
there with some great bloggers and tipsters. Whatever happens with the Becher
Chase, I won’t be using the result as part of my stats record for this blog –
and I’ve tipped a runner currently at 22/1 with Stan James that I think has a
great chance that is NOT one from my alert list.
There is plenty to be getting on with
so without further ado, let’s get stuck in. The Horse Alerts:-
Aintree 1:00 - CLONDAW KAEMPFER
Aintree 2:05 – STORM SURVIVOR, JOIN
TOGETHER, WYCK HILL, and CHARTREUX
Aintree 2:40 – WAYWARD PRINCE, KATENKO,
and OUR MICK
Aintree 3:15 – MIDNIGHT APPEAL,
SHANGANI, and POOLE MASTER
Sandown 12:50 – MRS PEACHEY
Sandown 1:20 - UPSWING, and WHISPER
Sandown 1:50 – BALDER SUCCES
Sandown 2:25 – VULCANITE, and
WATERUNDER
Sandown 3:00 – VIVA COLONIA, and SIRE
DE GRUGY
Sandown 3:55 – BRADLEY, BUDDY BOLERO,
and GODSMEJUDGE
Chepstow 12:25 – ROUDOUDOU VILLE
Chepstow 12:55 – MIDNIGHT PRAYER
Chepstow 2:00 – QUARTZ DE THAIX
Chepstow 3:10 - RENARD
Wetherby 2:50 - SETTLEDOUTOFCOURT
AINTREE
I’m giving the 1:00 a miss as CLONDAW
KAEMPFER is on a recovery mission. I’ve looked at the 2:05 “Becher Chase” on
the website www.gallopslive.com under my blog
name of Wayward Lad. The 2:40 looks a better proposition as KATENKO stands head
& shoulders above these in terms of ability on last season’s form, but odds
of 9/4 currently available are borderline value. The 3:15 sees the return of
our 25/1 hero MIDNIGHT APPEAL and we should not overlook his chance. He may
have been raised 7lb by the handicapper, but that (in my opinion) is not enough
for this much underrated chaser. Current odds of 8/1 look fair value even tho’
I think he’d have taken all the beating in the 3m2f Becher Chase and would have
preferred him to go for that race instead.
SANDOWN
This meeting has lost some of its shine
with Sprinter Sacre not taking part in the Tingle Creek Chase. However, we have
what look like some good opportunities. In the 12:50 we see the useful mare MRS
PEACHEY. When you find a good mare then is pays to stick with her as mares-only
races are a bit weak The 2:25 a 2-mile hurdle handicap, looks very interesting
as I’ve been waiting for some time for VULCANITE to drop back in trip to 2-mile
as he barely stays a yard further. I was hoping he’d go for a 2-mile chase, but
we will have to make do with this hurdle. The last time he ran in a hurdle over
this sort of trip, VULCANITE won well and I think he’s a better horse now. The
ground isn’t soft enough for WATERUNDER but he should be in the shake-up. The
Tingle Creek Chase should go to SIRE DE GRUGY but I’m not prepared to have a
wager at the current odds. This 2-mile trip is too short for VIVA COLONIA and
he’s outclassed anyhow. The final race on the Sandown card is a cracker – the
London National over 3m5f & 110yards. I think all of my horse
alert runners BRADLEY, BUDDY BOLERO, and GODSMEJUDGE have good chances in this
race. and I will be combining them in 3 “swingers” on the Tote.
CHEPSTOW
When I saw the declarations for the
3-mile chase at 2:00, QUARTZ DE THAIX stood out, and with odds at 10/1 (Stan
James and Paddy Power) he has to be an eachway wager. I think RENARD has a
great chance in the 3:10, but the odds are too tight for a wager. And don’t
forget to look for ROUDOUDOU VILLE. Off the track for a very long time, this
horse was seriously talented in 2011 (gave Midnight Appeal 13lb and a 4-length
beating) and if anywhere near that level the 16/1 on offer now will look live
an early Christmas present. Well worth a couple of quid if your in the bookies.
Selections
Aintree 3:15 MIDNIGHT APPEAL, £5
eachway @ 8/1 with Bet Victor & Bet365
Sandown 2:25 VULCANITE, £5 eachway @ 16/1
with Stan James
Chepstow 2:00 QUARTZ DE THAIX, £5
eachway @ 10/1 with Stan James
Total Staked = £30
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