The 464th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
A delayed publication of the blog today as there was a power cut here this morning and the power was only switched back on at noon. Yesterday, I benefitted from some great fortune. Firstly, I was involved in a meeting at the office which meant I was unable to be involved in the 3:10 at Chepstow, and so a losing wager on Canal Bank was avoided. The horse looked to be going well until up till the 14th fence where he dropped-out quickly, so perhaps something went amiss. With my meeting over, I was able to be involved in the 4:05 at Carlisle. It wasn't until just before the race that I knew the morning fav Blazing Diva was a non-runner. This changed the complexion of the race completely as there was unlikely to be a fast pace on from the off (which was the likelihood with Blazing Diva). As such Kaybeew was far more likely to be in contention and as I knew he stayed the trip well (see yesterday's blog) I took the 12.50 (SP 9/1) available on Betfair just seconds before the off. He drifted in-running to 20.0 on Betfair before they had gone a mile of the 3m2f, so I doubled-up my stake. The intention was always to lay-off my total stake in-running at 6.20 and then let the wager "ride". Kaybeew went into the lead 3-out, and jumped the final fence in a clear lead to win by 6-lengths.
That successful trade on Kaybeew improved my trading record since 1st January to: Trades = 48; Wins = 29; Trade-outs = 6; Losses = 13. The increase in trading "bank" = 623% and Return On Investment (ROI) = 61.70% (ie. 62.27pts profit from 100.98pts staked).
There are a couple of interesting races today, and I have already posted these up on Twitter (my id is @wayward_lad). They are:-
Newbury 2:40, OGEE @ 7/1, and in the Sedgefield 4:35, BARDOLET @ 15/2.
I've liked OGEE ever since he was just beaten in the 3m1f handicap chase on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival in 2010. I feel he just does not stay 3-mile and that he's suffered in being asked to come from off the pace over trips he does not really stay. As such, over this 2m6f & 110 yards trip, I'm hoping for a big improvement on what we've seen in the past couple of seasons, especially as with his 2nd-place LTO he showed that he's still in love with the game. There will be a good pace on in this, which is what he wants, and I can see him staying-on strong at the end. I may try and obtain odds of 10.0+ on Betfair in-running after the off.
BARDOLET looks to be in a fairly easy race. It is an extreme trip of 3m3f and most of these will struggle to stay the trip and still be effective at the business end even if they do. BARDOLET will stay this trip, as he won over 3m1f with 11st 12lb (what he carries today) on 20th Jan at Catterick. He was pulled-up lame LTO at Southwell, so draw a line thru' that run. Frontier Boy loves Sedgefield in much the same way as Everaard loves Musselburgh, but he's slow as a boat and will likely only win this race is mishaps befall the others. Noble Witness does not look like he will stay much beyond 3-mile. Of the 2 horses (OGEE and BARDOLET) I'd swing more to the latter and I am surprised that he's not favourite for this race at 5/1. Put it this way, he beat Toulouse Express a long way when he won that Catterick race and, even with a 9lb pull, I can't see the 13yo reversing the places – yet he's the 5/1 fav!
As the blog is published late (it's about 1:30pm as I write) today's selections won't count to my profit and loss – whatever happens.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
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Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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