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Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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This blog is based on finding winners - if you want to lose your money then read another blog.
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 27 December 2011

Kauto Star the Magnificent

The 412th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Kauto the Magnificent!
In all my 50-odd years, I have never seen a horse with as much ability, bravery, resolution, and gameness all wrapped-up in one body. And I probably never will again. We will never be able to compare the relative abilities of Arkle in the 1060’s with Kauto Star today, but if you consider long-term resilience then there is no comparison. Alongside Kauto Star, a huge (and I mean huge) amount of credit has to be given to Paul Nicholls who has managed to keep the horse sound for so many years enabling Kauto Star to compete at the highest level for 7 seasons. Most horses suffer some sort of injury which curtails their career.
I rated Long Run at 168 (thru’ Nacarat in 4th) when winning the previous running of the King George, and at 170 (thru’ What A Friend in 4th) when winning the Gold Cup. Yesterday, I reckon he ran a career best of 172 and that puts Kauto Star on 173 (Racing Post have rated Kauto at 182). My ratings also put Captain Chris on 155 which was the level at which he ran for the most of last season and perhaps that is his true level of ability. I had a personal wager on Somersby at 23.0 on Betfair and laid-off at 8.0 just after the 4rd last fence when he was travelling well as any (he actually went below 5.00 in-running) but there his stamina gave out. So, Henrietta Knight was right and he is a 2½ miler at most. If Kauto can maintain this level of form then he is the one to beat in the Gold Cup no doubt but, if anything, this race showed that replacing Waley-Cohen with Barry Geraghty on Long Run might conjure up an improved performance there.
I had a decent day yesterday and placed a “yankee” based on my shorter-priced selections of Bishophill Jack (won @ 11/4), Wide Reveiver (won @ 9/4), Diereadh Re (won @ 13/8) and Shaking Hands (3rd@ 9/2). Perhaps I should have included Binocular (won @ 5/4) and of the others mentioned on the blog, Helpston ran a good 2nd (was 20/1 in the morning) but was beaten by the 7lb over-weight he was carrying, and Bless The Wings (15/2) also ran a good 2nd at Kempton.
I was very disappointed with Sarando in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, and perhaps he is not as good as I once thought. As for my other selection, Pantxoa, he was given an awful ride being held far too far off the pace and altho’ he made ground in the latter stages he had no chance of being involved. He does have ability, but how that will convert into a win is beyond me.
Onto today, and we have the Welsh National at Chepstow which is always a great pointer to the top staying chases in the new year. The heavy going there will suit only a couple of runners and watching today’s race may prove hard going for those who are not accustomed to long-distance staying chases. Le Beau Bai was my early days selection and was 14/1 on 23rd December, but now we know the state of the going he’s just 9/1 at best. The others that will relish today’s conditions are Giles Cross, Carruthers, Blazing Bailey, Galaxy Rock and the 5yo, As De Fer. It takes an exceptional horse to carry more than 11st to win these long-distance chases, and so (based on previous trends) Giles Cross and Le Beau Bai are the obvious candidates to win this. They will be there at the finish but neither have any gears, but Galaxy Rock and As De Fer do as does BLAZING BAILEY who won a tough class 2 handicap chase at Cheltenham last New Years Day with 11st. He won over 3m4f NTO, was outclassed at the Festival when the early pace of his race was too quick, and the going was again too fast for him in the Scottish National and he pulled-up. He’s had just the one run this season when not far behind Carruthers in the Hennessey. This will be his 10th chase and he’s won 3 and been placed 3 times in the other 9 chase races; he’s also won 2 from 3 on heavy. His weight of 11st 5lb will be tough for him, but I can see only a handful completing this extreme test, and he’s likely to be one of them so at 28/1 (Bet365, Corals, Stan James) he is worth a “fun” eachway wager and he’ll be carrying my money.

I’m not making any official selections today and tomorrow I’m off to see relatives for a couple of days so, hopefully, I’ll be back with the blog on New Years Day.

It’s been a great year and I hope that my regular readers will continue to visit and support the blog. For new readers, horseracing is a great spectacle and full of emotion and exhilaration, and (if you take it seriously) you can win a bit as well.

All the best and (borrowing a term from Sir Bruce) “Keep Racing!”

Monday, 26 December 2011

Boxing Day spectacular

The 411th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.

Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain so, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.

Thursday, 22 December 2011

Boxing Day lookahead

The 410th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I followed a couple I wrote about with personal wagers; unfortunately without success.

ALPHA WAY had won his last couple of starts as jockey Felix De Giles had been able to get the horse settled, yesterday tho' he had no such luck and ALPHA WAY ran away with him in the early stages burning-up his energy which was soon spent and he eventually pulled-up.  That fast early pace meant the race fell apart for most and another I was interested in, Nosecond Chance, also pulled-up.

My 2nd personal wager was on TIME FOR SPRING who I thought had a great chance when the morning fav Chapolimoss was declared a non-runner. TIME FOR SPRING was brought to challenge the leader at the last fence but failed to take the race by just half-a-length. This was disappointing, as he could well have blown what was a winning rating as he'll probably go up at few pound for this run as LTO winner Battlecry was beaten 12-lengths into 3rd. There is a possibility he may run again before a re-rating (see below).

As luck would have it, the only other race I looked at was the extended 3-mile chase at Ffos Las  which saw KAYBEEW from my alert list running. His odds of 5/2 did not represent value and, combined with a significant move for Horsham Lad (from 5/2 in to 15/8) and the David Pipe 4yo Take Over Sivola (from 8/1 in to 4/1), that meant Mohayer - a LTO chase winner over 2m6f - drifted to 10/1 from 5/1.  

This is the main reason why I provide a narrative behind my selections on the blog. At respective odds in the morning of 5/2, 5/2 and 5/1; Kaybeew, Horsham Lad and Mohayer were not value. But, by race-time, Mohayer's drift to 10/1 meant he was in eachway wager territory at 5th odds a place. Not only that, but I did write that all those 3 held decent chances and if you had combined all 3 in 6 x 1pt straight-forecasts then you would have been rewarded with a total return of 37.98pts resulting in a 31.98pt profit.

There is a lot to be gained by reading this blog, and sometimes I wish I followed my own comments!

There will be no look at today's racing nor any selections for today as I'm winding-down at the office and I want an "early-dart". Combined with the Christmas break in the racing calendar, I spent this morning on the train to London looking thru' the Boxing Day entries and trying to find pointers to future winners. The good weather should ensure a full day's racing on Boxing Day with plenty of meetings, so here are my early observations.

At Ffos Las, there is an interesting class 3 chase over 2m3½f as well as the class 2 chase over 3m1½f - both will be worth looking at when final declarations are posted-up.

At Huntingdon, the opening novice hurdle could see  IMPERIAL CIRCUS run again. I reckon this horse has serious long-term potential. Next, at 12:45 there is a lowly class 5 chase over 3-mile which Kim Bailey has won 3 times with just 5 runners (and he had another placed) in the last 10 years stats. He has just BISHOPHILL JACK entered.

At Kempton, the opening novice hurdle has been won by some decent types over the years, and Nicky Henderson always has a strong entry even tho' he's not won it in the past 10-years. He has 6 entries but, interestingly, Paul Nicholls has just the one, PLENTY POCKET. Henderson has a much better record in the novice handicap chase at 1:25 and you should pay attention to which he chooses to run from his 6 entries. Both the Feltham novice chase, and the Christmas Hurdle are still open to entries. I wrote about the King George yesterday and I would not be scared of opposing Long Run as I reckon he's no more than OR172 at best (from what we've seen to date) so Kauto Star has the ability to beat him and he's also within range of Captain Chris and Diamond Harry. Also, don't write off Somersby for whom supporters (me included) have been crying-out for to try 3-miles. He is a rock solid OR166, 2-miler and while he has no turn-of-foot at that trip, over this 3-mile trip you just never know. The final race on the Kempton card looks a cracking 2m5f handicap hurdle and I'm hoping PANTXOA takes part.

I can't see anything at Market Rasen's meeting, so onto Towcester where the opening 2m6f Beginner's Chase could be worth watching if only for prospective notebook candidates.

Wetherby has the "Rowland Meyrick" class 3 handicap chase over 3m1f at 1:45 and this race looks a cracker. Much will depend on the going (currently soft) but there look to be some well handicapped horse entered such as Sarando (OR149), Knockara Beau (OR143), and Lackamon (OR139). If, as is likely, Midnight chase (OR161) takes part then he will keep the likes of Helpston (OR128) and Lockstown (OR126) out of the handicap "proper".

At Wincanton, there is a class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 over 3m1½f that trainer Alan King has won 3 times from just 4 runners, and he has just the one horse entered, the 10yo Rustarix. This race usually goes to a younger horse tho' and yesterday's runner, the 7yo TIME FOR SPRING has top-weight (will he run?) and David Pipe has recent Exeter 2nd SHAKING HANDS in this. Paul Nicholls has EARTH PLANET representing him.

Take note of Peter Bowen's RUN TO FLY who is entered at just about every meeting on Boxing Day.

That's it for now. If I have time then I will post another blog tomorrow, but more likely I will prepare for the Boxing Day meetings - it could be a monster blog posting.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

Wednesday, 21 December 2011

Fwd: Spring is in the air


The 409th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I was very disappointed with yesterday's selection PRINCE TOM. Firstly,
his booked jockey Harry Derham was replaced at about 11:30am as he was
declared ill and unfit to ride by Paul Nicholls (trainer of Prince Tom).
His replacement James Cowley is (like Harry Derham) a 7lb claimer, tho'
he's had fewer rides than Derham. Had I known that in the morning, then
I would not have recommended a wager at odds of 3/1.  Secondly, despite
the jockey change, the horse ran a lacklustre race. None of the market
leaders in the race was involved at the finish, so perhaps the ground
(soft side of good-to-soft) was the factor.

Overall, not a good day, and I've decided that unless I'm super
confident about a selections chances then I am going to avoid making
selections whose odds (when I post the blog) are at less than 7/2.

Onto today, and we have a couple of meetings at Ffos Las and Ludlow.

The meeting at Ffos Las is on heavy going, and that could make things
tricky there for finding winners. I was going to have an interest in the
3-mile 1f & 110 yard chase at 2:45 as KAYBEEW is on my alert list
following his win LTO, but current odds of 5/2 are silly. Horsham Lad
(5/2) and Mohayer (5/1) are both holding decent chances in this, and you
cannot rule out My Moment (8/1) either.

Ludlow has a few more from my alert list running, with 2 in the novice
chase at 1:00, Nosecond Chance and Alpha Way. I really like both of
these and, on the form-book, I can't split them. Of the pair, given
today's trip of 2m4f, I'd be more inclined to side with ALPHA WAY
(current odds 5/1) over Nosecond Chance (7/2), but I may place a small
reverse forecast wager on the pair.

The other race that has a runner from my alert list is the 2:35, a
3-mile handicap chase. I have just learned that Chapolimoss is a
non-runner and that leaves the way open for TIME FOR SPRING. I made note
of this one when he easily won his debut chase. Then, LTO, he was well
there till close home at Cheltenham in what looks to have been a hot
handicap. This easier course will suit him as will going right-handed
(he's won at Carlisle); and he's been dropped a couple of pounds too!
Currently 3/1, he should perhaps be a little shorter as his only
competition looks like being Made In Time which pairs AP McCoy with the
Rebecca Curtis trained runner. Curtis and McCoy enjoy a high strike-rate
when coupled, but Made In Time has to prove he has the stamina for
today's trip.  Recent winner Battlecry is another fancied runner, but he
was fortunate to win LTO (weak race) and he's vulnerable to the
unexposed pair of TIME FOR SPRING and Made In Time.

Had I written this blog before Chapolimoss was declared a non-runner
then he'd have been my selection as I may have obtained a bit better
than 3/1 about him. As it is, he's worth a wager at those odds but, in
line with my new policy, he's not a 2pt win wager and I can't recommend
a wager at odds less than 7/2.

There will be plenty of opportunity for wagers over the Xmas holiday,
with Boxing Day and the 27th December looking like providing great
racing. For the King George on Boxing Day, I cannot see Long Run being
beaten if he's in the form of last year, but he is not invincible as
Kauto Star showed LTO. What should be remembered is that last year Kauto
Star was ridden by AP McCoy in this race, and I felt at the time he
bustled Kauto Star along when he didn't need to be. Ruby Walsh
understands the horse well, and he could conjure up a tear-jerking run
from him. For 3rd place, I'm going for recent Sandown winner GOLAN WAY
who (hopefully) will have the stamina to last out the trip at what
should be a heart-breaking pace.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.






Tuesday, 20 December 2011

Let's crown this Prince

The 408th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

Yesterday's selection AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES ran particularly badly.

The horse sweated-up beforehand and never got into contention during the
race, and was pulled-up when tailed-off before 2-out. In my opinion, the
horse was palpably not in a condition to race.

On the form book, the horse has real potential to do well at this grade
and that it ran so diabolically suggests that there should be (if at all
possible) a way for on-course veterinary staff to assess the condition
of horses pre-race and, if they are of the opinion that the horse is not
in a condition to race, then they should have the power to declare it a
non-runner on veterinary grounds. At the moment, I think the onus is on
a trainer to bring the horse to the attention of the on-course
Veterinarian should he (the trainer) think that the horse is not fit to
run (if already declared).

I expect I was not the only punter to strike an early wager on the horse
at what looked generous morning odds (6/1) expecting those odds to
shorten closer to the off. I thought he'd start with an SP of under 4/1,
instead he drifted out to 10/1. As only 8 went to post, and 3 of the
others had no realistic chance of being involved, it was probably only
"office" money from punters off-course who kept his odds at 10/1 -
otherwise, he'd probably have been 16/1 or longer.

It's one thing to lose money on a horse that tries its best and is
defeated, and quite another to lose money on a horse that had no
realistic chance of winning from the moment it left the stables.

I also think that stewards should consider the movement of odds prior to
a race and compare the SP's with a recognised "tissue". Significant
disparities - be they shorter or longer - should require the trainer
(and owner) to report to the stewards their opinion for such a movement.
This is a professional sport after all, with every race televised.

I'm just looking at the one race today which is at Taunton, and it's the
extended 3-mile handicap at 2:00. Trainer Paul Nicholls has a great
strike-rate at Taunton and he sends 2 horses to the track, of which
PRINCE TOM runs in this hurdle race. A course & distance winner, he was
staying-on well in a much more competitive race than this LTO at Newbury
when he was 3rd. He had no chance with the leading pair that day but
today, running off the same OR125 mark, he won't have as much to do.
Most of the others have stamina to prove and, while the soft going may
be an issue, we know that fitness isn't and we know the horse should
improve for his recent run and he stays the trip. PRINCE TOM was my
selection when he ran LTO, and I expect him to do the biz today. Current
odds are 3/1 (Corals & Boylesports) but be quick as I expect him to
start a lot shorter.

Selection:

Taunton 2:00, PRINCE TOM, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Coral & Boylesports)

Thanks for reading this blog.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you have read,please make a contribution.



Monday, 19 December 2011

Go ahead, make my day

The 407th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

A small profit achieved on Saturday thanks to COURT RED HANDED who
plugged-on to be 3rd (advised win & place) at 10/1 in the Tommy Whittle
Chase at Haydock. The going there was soft/heavy and many of the horses
finished their races extremely tired. In such conditions, finding horses
which naturally stay the trip and are game enough to continue running
will pay dividends during the winter under the new whip rules. COURT RED
HANDED looked to have absolutely no chance of being in the money 4-out
and only came 3rd due to the last fence fall of Pearlysteps in 2nd at
the time. Even the eventual winner, CANNINGTON Brook, only just held on
as his stamina gave out in the final 100 yards.

The soft going also did for the other selection BENBANE HEAD who was
always struggling in the race won by The Minack.

Today, in the opener at Bangor at 12:40, one from last year's horses to
follow list re-appears - Afistfullofpebbles. I marked this horse down as
one to follow last year after he won his 1st two chases over 2m5f. He
ran 3 times last season, never looking anything like his best and, as
such, has been dropped 10lb by the handicapper to OR115 - just 3lb above
his last winning mark. His full brother Rapid Increase (also trained by
Jonjo O'Neill) improved markedly when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile, but
Afistfullofpebbles has yet to demonstrate that he will appreciate this
sort of trip. O'Neill also has Canal Bank in this race which further
complicates things, but it is Afistfullofpebbles which is ridden by AP
McCoy.

This looks on paper to be a really weak Class 4 chase and as such, I'm
going to take a chance that the drop in the handicap and the trip will
bring back a return to form for AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES today. He is a proven
chaser with winning form in the book on similar going and current odds
of 6/1 do not reflect his chance as I reckon he should be 7/2 for this.

There is not much else worth attention at the remainder of the Bangor
meeting, or at Plumpton.

Selection:

Bangor 12:40, AFISTFULLOFPEBBLES, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds
guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.





Saturday, 17 December 2011

It may be heavy-going today

The 406th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There have been no selections this week on the blog, but it’s always worthwhile visiting here anyway as DYSTORIA’S REVENGE was strongly suggested as having a decent eachway chance midweek (the only reason I’ve not posted up any selections is that I’m in a new job and having difficulty accessing the monitoring websites that I use to “proof” my selections) and it only went and won at 22/1.

Today is another day, and what a day it poses to be.

At Ascot, the opening handicap hurdle sees one from my alert list DUSKY BOB, revert back to hurdles. Were the trip today less than 3-miles then he’d be the one I’d be on, but he hasn’t looked to have the stamina for this trip before today.
In the next at 1:25 another from my alert list is the race fav RENARD. He looks well-placed here to make it 4 wins on the bounce, as he’s not yet looked like stopping his improvement. But, I was on Politeo LTO when 2nd at Ascot over 2m3f and this drop in trip to 2m1f will suit him as will the soft going, as he’s won on that in Ireland twice. I can’t split the pair, a reverse forecast maybe?
There is no way I can oppose BIG BUCKS in the Long Walk Hurdle, and John Francome said on Morning Line that if you’d put £100 on all his 1st hurdle race which he won and then rolled-up the winnings every time he’s race (and won) since, you’d have over a million quid today. I’ll have to check that.
The handicap chase at 3:05 over 3-mile looks a cracker. There are 2 off my alert list in it; Benbane Head and Reve De Sivola. The race fav is The Minack who I think is vulnerable as he probably wants further than 3-mile now. He’s also up 9lb for his LTO win, and while the form has worked out well, BENBANE HEAD is 10lb better-off today with him. REVE DE SIVOLA has been called a few names and he may not have won at trips further than 2m5f (5 races over further) he has run well in defeat in some top races. His run LTO has worked out particularly well and he will be staying on late. Given his style of running and that is he drops out mid-race, if you want a wager on him then you’ll likely get much longer odds than 5/1 if you are prepared to risk a wager mid-race. For a traditional pre-race wager, BENBANE HEAD at 8/1 (Bet365) looks the value.
The Ladbroke Hurdle at 3:35 is too tough to call, tho’ DESERT CRY at 14/1 looks well treated as he’s won on heavy, and his win LTO showed much improved form and it was run in a very quick time.

At Haydock, the going there is heavy. I do not like heavy going, especially at Haydock as it decimates fields and makes form almost obsolete. That said, it should prove no problem to WOODY WALLER in the 1:40 as he’s already won on heavy going.
The feature race at Haydock is the Tommy Whittle Chase over 3-mile. The going may find-out top-weight Cape Tribulation (who is on my alert list). It is asking a lot to expect Cannington Brook to make this his 1st chase win, tho’ he should be thereabouts. When COURT RED HANDED won LTO, my money was on the 3rd Wolf Moon. That form has worked out well enough, and at 10/1 (Blue Square & Stan James) he’s eachway value.

I’ll give Newcastle a miss.

Selections:
Haydock 2:45, COURT RED HANDED, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Stan James)
Ascot 3:05, BENBANE HEAD, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Friday, 16 December 2011

Snow is falling, all around us...

The 405th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There are 3 horses from my alert list running today:-

Heather Royal, a half-sister to Barbers Shop, who could be a lot better
than she's shown so far, and what she has done marks her out as above
average. She runs in the competitive 1:55 at Ascot where she is very
much the Henderson 2nd-string to Molotof. Smart prospect Hazy Tom is
also running and he's the current "evens" fav. As only 7 go to post
(Banyan Tree is a NR), it is unlikely that Heather Royal will finish in
the 1st-2 (unless Molotof or Hazy tom suffer a mishap) tho' she should
well finish in 3rd.

Then, in the 2:30 at Ascot, there is Frascati Park. I really like this
horse as he makes-all and jumps his fences fast and well. He walloped
another off my alert list - Kudu country - LTO by 14-lengths, and I
thought Kudu was going to be one of this seasons better novice chasers
after he won his chase debut in good style. This race could have 3
co-fav's in Chablais (Henderson), Pacha Du Polder (Nicholls) and
Kumbeshwar (King). Personally, I reckon both Chablais and Pacha Du
Polder still have it all to prove after they both won facile races on
their respective chase debuts. Kumbeshwar, is a bit more interesting
but, again, he did not excite me as much as FRASCATI PARK did with his 2
wins on soft going (which he has here today) at Carlisle. Is he a wager?
Given the competitive nature of the race, and that they are all
potential high class chasers in the making - the other 2 runners being
Zaynar and Michael Flips - I am going to have to say no, as I was
expecting to obtain odds of 8/1 or more.

At Uttoxeter, there is a 3-mile handicap hurdle at 2:20, and from my alert list runs CHAC DU CADRAN. This progressive 5yo has just had 2 runs under rules since progressing from PTP's and this trip and soft going
should be within his scope. There have been a few non-runners, but 16
still go to post as I write and that means 4-places. CHAC DU CADRAN
should make the 1st-4 comfortably, but will be hard-pressed to beat the
current 6/4 fav Thehillofuisneach who comes into this race officially
10lb well-in. When  you are wagering eachway, the selection really
should have a good chance of winning the race, as the place part of the wager is the "fall-back" position to recover your stakes should the
selection not win.

I can't see CHAC DU CADRAN winning unless a mishap comes of the
favourite in his race.

As such, no selections today, tho' I would not put readers off from
having a "fun" eachway wager (2 x singles and a double) on FRASCATI PARK
and CHAC DU CADRAN.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that
readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful
wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a
contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those
that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

Thursday, 15 December 2011

Fwd: Nothing doing today

The 404th edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

Yesterday's selection (not posted on monitoring websites) WYKE HILL, ran a decent 2nd at an SP of 15/2. He never looked in danger of finishing outside the places, hence my assessment that his true odds were more like 4/1 and, as he was 13/2 when I posted my blog his SP was fair enough. My only gripe is that just seconds before the off, several online bookmakers were offering odds of 9/1 and he was at 8/1 with just about everyone else – so why only 15/2 return as the SP?

Today with heavy going at Exeter and Towcester is not being my most favourite track from a punting point of view, coupled with my opinion that both meetings are fairly ordinary, I'm not making any selections today and giving racing a miss. There will be better days and easier targets (hopefully) over the next couple of days which look like being very entertaining.

It will also give me some time to catch up and up-date my alert list which – if I say so myself – has been hitting the target with some consistency of late. I find it much easier to spot future winners over the jumps when comparing the form on the day a horse last ran and finding performances that have been under-rated by either the Official Handicapper or the renowned rating service RPR (Racing Post Ratings) than I do studying the form on the day when time is usually the biggest factor between success and failure.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.





Wednesday, 14 December 2011

Oh so lucky with a 22/1 winner y'day

The 403rd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

What a result! Yesterday's 3m & 1½fh'cap chase proved to be a nightmare for in-running punters when the clear leader – Corkage – fell at the 2nd-last fence and, in doing so, impeded the staying-on Quel Ballistic unseating his rider. That left Eighteen Carat in a clear lead but, as I wrote yesterday, he wanted likely to stay the trip and was already a beaten horse before the 2nd-last. As such, he was running on empty and DYSTONIA'S REVENGE, who I knew would relish this test of stamina, came from well-off the pace to lead close home at the incredible odds of 22/1. You would not have given the horse a chance, even after the 2nd-last as he was possibly 20-lengths off the pace then and even at the final fence he had 15-lengths to make up. Let's be honest, the horse would not have won had Quel Ballistic not been impeded at the 2nd-last fence, but he would most likely have run 2nd to that horse. Corkage, who fell at the 2nd-last when well clear, has now failed to complete in 4 of his 5 chase starts and those who took 1.20 in-running on him approaching the 2nd-last should have taken that into account – but they didn't. As is reported in today's Racing Post, Corkage, Quel Ballistic and Eighteen Carat all traded in-running at less than 1.20 and eventual winner DYSTONIA'S REVENGE traded at 999 to £18.

As I did not put DYSTONIA'S REVENGE up as a selection with one of my monitoring services (I use Betting League and Tip Exchange) I will NOT be taking that win into account when calculating my profit. I am endeavouring to establish a link via my mobile phone to register my selections Monday-to-Friday with the above monitoring sites, but in the meantime, any selections not posted there will not count.

EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle, was indeed well schooled (as I wrote yesterday) and ran out an easy winner at 2/1.

There is a decent meeting today at Newbury and only the one race takes my eye and that's the 12:50 a 3-mile class 3 handicap chase. A couple of weeks back I tipped WYKE HILL and he made an uncharacteristic error early-on and fell. He comes here today on the same rating and this improving horse  will take a good deal of beating today. The fav, Paul Nicholls Minella Stars will need to improve a lot on what he showed LTO, and My Boy Paddy and Penny Max are too short in the market on form shown to date. I expected WYKE HILL to be under 4/1 for this as it looks an easier task that that which he faced LTO and he started 5/1 for that race. Therefore, current odds of 13/2 (Tote and Betfred, 6/1 elsewhere) look the value to me. I will be having 1pt eachway on him.

This blog is being written and posted remotely – so please bear with me as once it's posted I have no ability to amend it if the text colour is difficult to read.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.



Tuesday, 13 December 2011

Revenge is best served cold

The 402nd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

 

No blog yesterday, and this blog is being written and posted remotely – so please bear with me as once it's posted I have no ability to amend it if the text colour is difficult to read.

 

A couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Folkestone.

 

There are a few horses from my personal alert list running including Monsieur Jourdain who won LTO at 14/1. He goes for the 1:50 at Catterick over 3m & 1½f and I'm not entirely sure that he will stay this trip. He was caught towards the end of both his recent races and only won LTO as his challenger fell at the last fence. Behind him LTO was Quel Ballistic and he will enjoy the extra 3f today, but one that I think will relish the test of stamina even more is DYSTONIA's REVENGE who is a winner of 4 (from 7) PTP's. He's struggled to complete rules races (only 4 completed from 8 starts) but his latest (30Nov) when he just failed to win in fast time suggests improvement. Eighteen Carat will likely lead (or dispute the lead) but he's another who isn't guaranteed to stay beyond 2m 6f. DYSTONIA'S REVENGE is 12/1 (Blue Square & Bet365) and looks worthy of a small ew wager.

 

The 1:20 at Catterick sees the hurdling debut of ex-Cumani trained horse BOURNE, but he meets the useful looking CRACKENTORP who won LTO 12-days ago and that experience could prove decisive. Not a race to get heavily involved in tho' unless you know something that I don't.

 

The 3m & 1½f handicap hurdle at 2:20 sees OVERYOU return to a more suitable trip. He appears to have stamina to burn as he's won 2 of 3 races over 2m6f+ but is 0 from 14 over shorter trips. This lower grade race will suit him better too. As such, I reckon he should be much shorter than the 18/1 offered by Corals as he's only 8/1 in the Racing Post betting Forecast. He has to be worth an eachway wager given there are 17-runners.

 

At Folkestone, in the 1:10 we see the chasing debut of recent hurdling winner EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle. If she's been well schooled - and Suzy Smith knows her onions – then she will prove hard to beat especially with her 7lb mares allowance.  The final race on today's card, a 3m1f chase, looks like being an interesting one. My old mate Absolute Shambles runs and he may enjoy the competition in this. He ran in snatches LTO, before throwing-in the towel. But there are half-a-dozen that could win this race and it'll be one for watching for me.

 

I'm not able to access the site's that I post my selections on for monitoring my performance, but if I was able then I'd be seriously considering both DYSTONIA's REVENGE and OVERYOU today.

 

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.


M

Sunday, 11 December 2011

JONCOL to take the John Durkan at Punchestown

The 401st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)

Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.

It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.

The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.

The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.

The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.

The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.

The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.

Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.

At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Saturday, 10 December 2011

A landmark page - the 400th blog post

The 400th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)

Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.

There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.

Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.

There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs

Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good

Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho

The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster

I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.

Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Is ROLLING ACES a future Gold Cup winner?

The 399th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day without a firm “blog” selection yesterday, but mine is not a blog that puts up selections just for the sake of it. I wager my own money on each and every selection to the level of £40 a point, and if I can’t find a selection to risk my money on then I’m not going to risk my readers money on it.
I can’t say fairer than that, can I?

Today it is going to be a brief blog as altho’ there are 3 meetings and the one at Huntingdon features the Peterborough Chase, today (Thursday) is the first day of a new venture for me and I am writing this blog on Wednesday evening as I can’t guarantee getting this blog online on Thursday.

As I said, 3 meetings at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton.

The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at 2:00pm should be won by SOMERSBY as he is about 10lb ahead (in my opinion) of his nearest rival which is The Nightingale. If I could get the Racing Post betting forecast odds of 9/4, then I’d make SOMERSBY a 2pt win wager but, as I write, the odds for SOMERSBY are just 7/4 and - while that is still “value” (I reckon he should be odds-on at 4/5) – it is against my principles to recommend a wager at those odds. It may be worth wagering on a straight-forecast: SOMERSBY to beat The Nightingale.

At Ludlow, there is a very interesting chase handicap at 2:40. ROSSBRIN was most unlucky to meet a horse with unlimited stamina LTO, and there is little chance of that tomorrow as most of these are fairly well exposed. Roseneath is up another 8lb for a fairly ordinary win LTO. Inside Dealer strikes me as a horse that prefers trips less than 3-mile. Simply Wings wants the going soft/heavy (it is “good” going). Rockiteer has gone up 9lbs for winning a weak race LTO and he will struggle off OR126. Midnight Haze will also find the going on the quick side for him, but he is an interesting runner who goes well fresh. Cast Cada has won all 3 times he’s raced at this trip, but he usually needs a run and this looks competitive for him. Oscar Prairie has questions to answer after his run LTO, tho’ if he were pulled-up in haste he could be an interesting runner. As for Pigeon Island, is this trip really what he needs? He will be running-on late, but will it be too late? ROSSBRIN is 11/2 (Paddy Power) and that looks more than fair as we know he’s fit, jumps well, goes right-handed, and he runs off the same rating as last week.

Before then, at 1:10pm, we see THE COCKNEY MACKEM return to the track after he unseated LTO. I reckon he is much better than OR122 and so long as we don’t see another novice-style error, he should win this easily as some of the others look handicapped to the hilt on what they’ve shown over fences so far. Vic Chandler go 11/4 and that looks more than fair.

At Taunton, I reckon we will see the next step to eventual grade 1 chase glory of ROLLING ACES from the Paul Nicholls stable. Trainers like Nicholls follow certain paths with their better horses and, so far, ROLLING ACES is following in the footsteps of Denman.

Selections
Ludlow 1:10, THE COCKNEY MACKEM, 1pt win @ 11/4 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Ludlow 2:40, ROSSBRIN, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Thanks for the memories

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.

SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.

I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?

Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.

I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.

There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.

The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.

There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

There is always tomorrow

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.

One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.

Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.

If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.

The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.

I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.

There is no selection today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Monday, 5 December 2011

INVICTUS to show he's worth £162,000

The 396th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.

Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.

SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.

At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.

At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.

At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.

The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?

I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.

There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Saturday, 3 December 2011

Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!

The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)

Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.

Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.

Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.

The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.

Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.

The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.

Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.

I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.

Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Friday, 2 December 2011

Two long-shots for Sandown

The 394th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

What a day for the blog – yesterday I discussed 3 races and found 2 winners at SP’s of 2/1 and 15/2 plus a 3rd horse who was a neck 2nd at 6/1, and I named none of them as firm selections. Sometimes (and yesterday was one of them) I kick myself for not having enough strength in my own opinions. Just a point win on each of those 3 and I’d have been 8.50pts in profit on the day for 3pts staked. It is the reason why I put in my narrative, so that readers can take my thoughts and opinions and use them to strengthen their own views. I do not take these “winners” into my profit & loss calculations (I wish I did) so my blog is transparent and bears scrutiny; but hey! It’s a lot better having to read some reasoning rather than just a list of horses names, isn’t it?

Before I move on, can I just say that ROSSBRIN was most unlucky yesterday to meet a horse who stays forever running in his debut chase; No Principles. I will support ROSSBRIN again as he jumped his fences very low and at speed, as such he could prove best at around 2m5f. No Principles is a previous course winner at Market Rasen and made-up a lot of ground (despite being impeded by the faller at the 2nd-last) over the final half-mile, he could be one for the marathon chases.

On to today’s racing and we have a grand meeting at Sandown for a Friday. Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at the moment and, as such, his novice Semi Colon will start at short odds for his chase debut in the 1:30 there. Clearly an improving hurdler, this will be different and for all the Henderson talents he cannot guarantee his novice chasers take to the jumps. There are a couple of proven novices in LEXICON LAD and Loch Ba, and altho’ Loch Ba is weighted to reverse their recent meeting, LEXICON LAD looks a horse with potential over the jumps.

Next up, the 2m4f hurdle novice hurdle would not disgrace the Festival itself. Unbeaten Fingal Bay was very impressive LTO, and Simonsig is an unknown – talented, but how good? Jump City will need to improve a lot on what he’s shown so far over a trip that may well stretch his stamina. There are no question-marks over SIZING SYMPHONY and the trip and going will be in his favour. His form from Cheltenham (Peckhamecho in 3rd has won both his races since and is rated OR132, yet was btn 17-lengths in receipt of 8lb) and Fairyhouse looks rock solid, and odds of 9/1 (William Hill) seriously under-estimate his chance.

At 2:30 we have the “Future Stars” chase over 3-mile & 110 yards, and this (in my opinion) hangs on how you rate last year’s novice chase form. I was on BOSTONS ANGEL when he won the RSA at the Festival, and it must be remembered that he is the only horse to beat Quito De La Roque over fences. He was travelling and jumping well before a rare error unshipped his rider LTO and he is a lot better than his rating of OR152 which seriously under-estimates his ability and achievements. He will prove in this that he is a 160+ chaser but, such is his task at the weights, he will need to be at the very top of his game to win today. The reason is GOLAN WAY is better than OR146 and (on a line thru’ Quito De La Roque) could prove up to the task today being in-receipt of 6lb from Bostons Angel. Odds of 10/1 (Ladbrokes) are plain daft given trainer Sheena West’s ability and that the horse is fit from a recent hurdle race.

Exeter features the Devon Marathon chase and Power Pack Jack will no doubt try and make-all as he did LTO. However, I always respect David Pipe’s entries in these long-distance races which he likes to target (since sending Lord Atterbury to be 3rd in the National when still a point-to-point trainer). SHAKING HANDS comes here fresh from a 269-day break and was the fav (at 6/1) for the Devon National here last March. I would be hoping for more than the 6/1 on offer tho’ as these sort of races are a test of strength, not form, and what looks like winning at the 2nd-last could end up a distant 3rd at the post. If I can get 8/1+ then he’ll be a (small) eachway wager.

Selections:
After yesterday, I’m going in with;
Sandown 1:55, SIZING SYMPHONY, 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill, BOG)
Sandown 2:30, GOLAN WAY, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday, 1 December 2011

Venetia Williams back on form

The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.

No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.

Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.

This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.

At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.

The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.

The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.

I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.