Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

LOSS for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00


Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, at cumulative stakes of £5,726 - which has resulted in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 equivalent to a Return on Investment of 26.60%.


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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Tuesday, 31 May 2011

Notebook up-to-date

This is the 291st edition of the daily blog page.

No winners for the blog on Saturday, but I really should have followed my gut-feeling and gone with the Friday selection FLOWING CAPE (who was a non-runner on Friday) who ran at Catterick over 6-furlongs and ran-out a very strong winner at 6/1. Then, on Sunday, from the “Notebook” HUMIDOR ran at Nottingham. Unfortunately, he ran loose before the race and (despite have the best of the draw) he faded quickly in the final furlong having held a winning position, and I will forgive him this run.

This is a long blog as it contains all those named in the Notebook as only by posting them on a page like this means that the entries are kept on permanent record and can be looked-up using the “search” facility. Also, I am away for the rest of this week seeing my 8yo son in Cornwall. After that, things will be a bit quiet for the blog as I am “cramming” for some professional exams on 20th June, and then it’s 2 weeks in Ibiza!

I hope that this Notebook list provides some good winners. I am particularly hopeful of a few, such as ZUIDER ZEE who was due to run on Saturday but the going was too fast. KEPLER’S LAW is entered to run on Wednesday but he could be at short odds as he looks to be one of Sir Mark’s multiple handicap winners in the making.
No selections today but I have added a couple more to the Notebook in FLOWING CAPE and XILERATOR who both look capable of following-up last week’s winning efforts.


The Notebook
FLOWING CAPE: 6yo trained by Reg Hollinshead – currently in the form of his life and his latest win was a career-best effort over 6-furlongs. He needs a stiff 6f and I reckon is best at 7-furlongs on good or GF going (31st May).

XILERATOR: 4yo trained by David Nicholls - His half-bro’s Inxile (OR108) and Tax Free (OR112) were very talented and XILERATOR won LTO (only his 7th race) in a fast time racing alone. His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential, tho’ at time of writing I am unaware of his re-rating (31st May).

QUSHCHI: 3yo filly trained by William Jarvis – while everyone else was watching eventual winner Brown Panther, Qushchi (the only filly in the race) showed plenty of ability to stay-on from a similar position as the winner (to who she was giving 2lb) and finish well infront of the remainder of the field. The step-up to 12-furlongs was ideal and, with a revised rating of just OR86 (+3lb) she can prove equal to her dam (OR107) or maybe even her dam’s half-bro, Grand Lodge (2nd in G1 Champion Stakes and OR125) (26th May).

GRUMETI: 3yo trained by Michael Bell – stayed on very well in strong run race over possibly an inadequate, 10-furlong, trip. Half-bro’s were best over 12-furlongs so scope to improve and only raised 6lb to OR73. Could be lot better than this. Note: another boost for Four Nations (see below) (26th May).

KITTY WELLS: 4yo filly trained by Luca Cumani – if you can get odds about this one for the Ebor, do it now! This was only her 5th race and (off a 148-day break) this full sister to St Leger winner Milan (OR125) started slowly, was hampered when entering the straight, then couldn’t find a way thru’ beaten horses. Finally, when in the clear, she made ground hand-over-fist on the runaway winner. She’s been raised 5lb to OR85 so clearly the handicapper saw promise, and she looks well-up to matching her families achievements (26th May)

OUR JOE MAC: 4yo trained by Richard Fahey – challenged, but btn by going (needs give) and as such a tremendous run in a competitive h’cap. Stays on same rating of OR89 which is 2lb below his last winning mark and 7lb below his peak rating. He looks capable of staying beyond a mile (25th May).

TARTAN TRIP: 4yo trained by Andrew Balding – came to win his race and only btn by exceptionally well h’capped rival. Raised just 1lb for that to OR84, which looks lenient. He’s a 3-parts brother of Border Music (OR105) so may prove best at 7-furlongs on GF going. Only 7 turf runs, so probably unexposed on turf (25th May).

The Class 5, mile & 75yds maiden at Nottingham on 17th May was won by MASHAAREF trained by Roger Varian, but I was far more impressed with a couple who finished behind him: MAALI in 2nd and WATERCOURSE in 4th. MAALI did not go on with the winner about 3f-out and had 3+ lengths to make-up. Then, we he got moving he was knocked sideways and virtually stopped by the fast-fading Dervisher (finished in 6th), but picked himself up again and ran-on strong to fail by just a head! MASAAREF has been rated OR82, but MAALI is unrated as yet. WATERCOURSE (finished 4th) stayed on in eye-catching fashion and looks desperate for 10f+. He has been rated OR76. Both MASHAAREF and WATERCOURSE look well-treated, and it may be we’ll have to wait until one of them runs again before we can establish a rating for MAALI (25th May)

KEPLER’S LAW: 3yo gelding trained by Sir Mark Prescott - won this class 6 h’cap over 12-furlongs in a canter off a mark of OR57, and so he should. Bred to run in the Derby, KEPLER’S LAW is a full bro’ to Bashkirov who is still in training in Ireland and was btn less than 5-lengths in the Irish Derby. His half-bro’ Summitville was 2nd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and rated OR109. I rate this one 72+ but he could easily be 90+ by September (25th May).

THE MELLOR FELLA: 3yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey – improved over winter and won with contemptuous ease on 3yo debut in good time. Raised 6lb to OR84 for that and it does not look anywhere near enough. Dam-line has some top milers, so he could well get a mile and looks capable of much improvement (23rd May).

JARROW: 4yo gelding trained by David Nicholls – Altho’ not a winner on turf (yet) he’s shown some cracking form, including LTO at Doncaster when 2nd over 6f on “good”. Collect Art (in 3rd) has since won, and the 2lb hike to OR78 looks very lenient considering he raced well as a 3yo (when with Mark Johnston) when 2nd off OR90 over 6f at Newmarket. The winner that day (Cockney Class) is now rated 10lb higher, the 3rd (Kanaf) is 8lb higher, whereas JARROW is now 12lb lower! Johnston could not get the horse to run last summer in sprints and gradually increased his trip till he ran over 9-furlongs. Bought by Nicholls for £27,000, he reverted to 6f and ran well in the race that has thrown-up Karaka Jack and Doctor Parkes. Nicholls trained JARROW’s half-bro Moss Vale (OR109) to win group races, and he was best at 6f and on GF going (23rd May).

BAWAARDI: 5yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey – won well, beating in-form rival aimed at the race, in fast time (TS92). Raised just 4lb to OR90. Only 8 “turf” races – 3 wins, 3 places; at 7-furlongs – 8 runs, 3 wins, 4 places; on GF going – 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places. At 7-furlongs on GF going, he must be on any shortlist as he has yet to reach his ceiling (20th May).

PIANO: 4yo filly trained by John Gosden – was withdrawn from December sales and, after sauntering to victory LTO, you can see why. Her dam is a full-sister to Mighty (btn a head in G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes) rated OR112, and half-sis to Group winning sprinter Danehurst. She only raced for the first time last July and has progressed well, if slowly at first. I reckon she’ll be even better over 12f as the progeny of her sire Azamour seem best of 10-furlong-plus. She was raised 10lb to OR90 for that LTO win, which seems a bit harsh, but against her own sex and over 12-furlongs I reckon she can defy it (20th May).

FINE THREADS: 3yo filly trained by Barry Hills - stayed-on well to win 3yo debut over 10f in decent time. Half-bro stayed 12f (4th in Great Voltigeur) and was probably G3 standard. Raised 6lb to OR77, this looks a fair mark if she’s progressive (20th May).

ADMIRAL OF THE RED: 3yo colt trained by AP O’Brien – bred to win an Ascot Gold Cup, he won his 2nd start over 12f massacring the opposition. Beaten stablemate Nantucket Bay (cost £425,000) won a week later. Also behind was Olympian (cost £650,000). It was the style and speed show over this trip that was exciting, and he looks well up to winning Group races, IMO he’s easily 110+. Entered for King Edward VII (Royal Ascot) and Irish Derby. (17th May)

BAISSE: 3yo filly trained by Henry Cecil – a half-sister to 2010 Dee Stake winner Azmeel, she won this in emphatic manner, and in my opinion looked a lot better than the OR80 rating she’s been given for this performance. She should stay 12f and looks an exciting h’cap prospect NTO. (17th May)

FREE FOR ALL: 4yo gelding trained by Sylvester Kirk – won class 4 h’cap (made all) in fast time. Only 4th race and only ran once as a 3yo (won). Half-sis (Miss Gorica) was a consistent “Listed” class performer between 5f-7f, best on GF. Free For All has been raised 8lb to OR90, but looks well up to defying that (17th May).

IMPERIAL GUEST: 5yo trained by George Margarson – won in fast time with more in hand than seemed; Ran in 2009 Guineas, had a short 3yo season. Won 4yo debut, 3rd in Buckingham (off OR90), enjoys big fields, 3rd to Redford & Side Glance (won twice since) at Ascot. Raised just 4lb to OR98, he could be much better than that (17th May).

ZUIDER ZEE: 4yo trained by John Gosden – impressed me when 4th in the Melrose H’cap at York on Aug-2010; LTO on 7th May, ZUIDER ZEE was well placed and coming with a run till being bumped hard by the eventual winner Rock A Doodle Doo from which he did not recover, but stayed on to be 4th. I reckon he could well have won from where he was without that bump, and I’ll be looking to recoup NTO (17th May)

BOOGIE SHOES: 4yo gelding trained by Roger Varian - won decent h'cap, looks progressive. Half-bro's both decent types who were (are) rated OR100+, so OR90 rating looks fair. Yet to be tested fully (16th May)

FOUR NATIONS: 3yogelding trained by Amanda Perrett - won 10f C5 h'cap on seasonal debut, came from long way back in good time. Must be a lot better than his. Raised only 7lb to OR72 looks very lenient indeed (16th May)

SPACE WAR: 4yo gelding trained by Michael Easterby - stayed on well from long way off the pace, and looks like wanting further than a mile. Bought from Gosden's stable for £30,000 in Oct'10, this was only his 8th race (didn't run as a 2yo) and he looks on the upgrade (16th May)

COLOMBIAN: 3yo colt trained by John Gosden - won maiden in striking fashion at Chester, showing good turn-of-foot off a face pace; OR93 rating looks lenient as half-bro Clodovil won French Guineas (16th May)

TRES CORONAS: 4yo gelding trained by David Barrons – showed tremendous turn-of-foot at Chester and despite short of room only just failed. Jky Graham Gibbons now 2 wins from 3 rides (and short-head 2nd in other). Gets any going, best at 10-furlongs (16th May)

WINTER’S NIGHT: 3yo filly trained by Clive Cox – won seasonal debut off 195-day break (raised 3lb to OR90) beating race-fit runner-up (3 wins in 2011) in fast time. Handles any ground, but needs a strong pace. Was unfortunate to not get a clear run thru’ when trying a mile LTO and was 3rd, but has been raised a further 6lb to OR96 which looks tough. (26th May)

HUMIDOR: 4yo gelding trained by George Baker - won class 3, 5f h'cap in time just 0.28 o/s track record. That performance looks exceptional, and only raised 6lb to OR93. He seems to go on any ground and stays 6-furlongs. A late foal (1st May) he's improving hand-over-fist. Ignore his latest run as he got loose prior to the race and lost vital energy.

MUSIC FESTIVAL: 4yo colt trained by Jim Goldie - won Class 4, 7f h'cap in very good time on 4yo debut. Lightly raced (9 starts), and unraced as a 2yo. Cost Goldie only £3,000 (bought out of Mark Johnstons stable) as 3yo despite dam having won French Guineas in 2003 (Musical Chimes). Raised only 4lb for that win to OR64, he seems best on good or quicker going (his dam was best on fast going) (10th May). Btn over 6f LTO, almost certainly needs 7f+ now (16th May).

CAPTIVATOR: 4yo filly with James Fanshawe - won with huge amount in hand very easily LTO off OR75. Raised 8lb for that win to OR83. However, has 4 x half-sisters rated OR100+ so has plenty of potential for improvement (26th Apr).

BELGIAN BILL: 3yo colt with George Baker - very confidently ridden and won well LTO off OR92 in fastest time of the day (TS95). Only raised 5lb to OR97, he needs GF going to be seen in best form (26th Apr).

BEATEN UP: 3yo colt trained by William Haggas – won debut at 3yo win commanding style despite running green. Half-bro Harris Tweed (OR112) won same race in 2010 in similar fashion and was rated OR85. So, OR86 rating for this win looks reasonable (27th Apr).

BUZZ LAW: 3yo gelding trained by Mrs K Burke - won this race (class 5) with more in hand than winning margin and in fast time too. Hung closing stages so not driven out. Raised 6lb to OR75, looks fair(published 27th Apr). NTO on 6th May at Ascot, unable to quicken despite every chance. Drop in grade to Class 5 should suit (9th May).

KARAKA JACK: 4yo gelding trained by David Nicholls – ran best race in ages, was 2nd in Esher Cup over a mile (class 2) off OR90. May run best on “Good” or GS, wants 7f (27th Apr). NTO on 30th April, came 3rd over 7f when met very well h'capped rival. On 21st May over 6f only just btn. Raised 2lb to OR77 - give another chance (26th May).

CHIEFDOM PRINCE: 3yo colt trained by Sir Michael Stoute - carried 10lb more than Flipando (won on same card) yet won his race in same time – but was rated 9lb inferior to Flipando by RPR?!? Stoute may have a good one here as his half-bro Rising Shadow won the Cammidge and was rated OR110. CHIEFDOM PRINCE has only been given a rating of OR87, which is 11lb less than Flipando on OR98. He looks thrown-in for a good handicap (published 28th Apr). NTO on 7th May, held every chance final furlong when badly bumped, not pushed thereon. Can win off this OR87 rating - give another chance (9th May).

PARLOUR GAMES: 3yo colt trained by Al Zarooni - well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) and looks best produce so far of the dam. Showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader, could be much better than this. Only raised 5lb to OR84 (29th Apr). Btn on GF going LTO, almost certainly want Good or GS going (16th May).

NASRI: 5yo gelding trained by David Nicholls - was decent 3yo (2nd Listed race with OR112 Donativum behind) but lost way as 4yo when moved to David Simcock. Bought by Nicholls at Oct2010 sales for £20,000 and he has found the "key" - 7f on GF from the front. Was rated OR104 as a 3yo (yet to be re-rated). (published 28th Apr). NTO on 7th May was 3rd in Victoria Cup off OR97. Was leading inside final furlong, and likely to remain on a winning mark after this. (9th May).

NIGHT CARNATION: 3yo filly trained by Andrew Balding - only 5 runs but ignore 1st-2 as a 2yo over 7f, she's a sprinter! LTO at Sandown, she quickened readily to pick-up the leader, and then quickened again to go clear. She was able to sustain the run to the line winning easily in a fast time. Balding knows how to handle these sprint horses who is expected to be better with some "give" (28th Apr). Won NTO, can improve again (16th May).

CAPTAIN BERTIE: 3yo colt trained by Barry Hills - has improved with every run, unfortunately met a good'un in Tazahum here. Was 2nd btn neck by Pausanius (now OR106) last season, so OR84 was lenient, and 4-lengths gap to 3rd reinforces that. May be best at 7f, but must be on NTO (28th Apr). NTO on 5th May at Chester on Good-to-Firm and was never happy, perhaps the going was too quick for him. Give another chance, tho' runs next off OR90 (9th May).

CHAIN LIGHTNING: 3yo colt trained by Richard Hannon - ridden with extreme confidence by Richard Hughes in what looks a very good class 3 h'cap. Plenty of hard-luck stories behind, but they all look well held. He looks to have lots of potential and should stay 12f (28th Apr). Several have come out of this race and won since (17th May).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 28 May 2011

The Moon is a balloon

This is the 290th edition of the daily blog page.

Two selections yesterday and FLOWING CAPE was a non-runner. Unfortunately, AUDACIOUS ran very poorly and was outclassed – simple as that. However, I did write of the winner Malthouse (the only other horse I mentioned in the race)…
“Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive.” That he certainly did, and I had a “”saver” wager on him when he went to 11.50 on Betfair, which I layed-off at 3.05 in-running to secure myself a decent profit.

Onto today and, with so much racing, I am going to focus on those (like last week) that have been mentioned in despatches.

In Haydock’s opener at 2:05 we have ZUIDER ZEE, who is in the Notebook and was subject of a wager LTO. He’s stepped-up to 2-mile today and tho’ that is 2-furlongs longer than he has raced-over before, his 4th in the Melrose last season over 1m 6f suggests this trip is within his scope and, as he has an entry for the Northumberland Plate, these trips are his target. What concerns me is the going as it may be a bit too quick. But Gosden (for whom this horse is his only runner at Haydock) says he won’t run if the going isn’t suitable and that’s good enough for me. Current odds of 7/2 are very skinny tho’.

From my personal list are:-
BIARAAFA - Newmarket 2:20
CAI SHEN – Newmarket 2:50
BONFIRE KNIGHT – Newmarket 4:00
FLOWING CAPE Catterick 4:40
CALLISTO MOON – Stratford 5:50

I think the extra 50 yards will suit FLOWING CAPE, and Catterick is a stiffer track than Bath, but will he reverse placings with Collect Art? The draw is in FLOWING CAPE’s favour, but he stays-on so a good draw is of no use to his running style. As such, it’s a “no” for FLOWING CAPE and Collect Art remains the one to beat in this.

BIARAAFA is stepped-up to a mile and I will pass him over as I reckon he won’t stay the trip.

CAI SHEN looks more interesting as he met a decent horse in Ocean War LTO and today’s going will suit him as it may have been a bit quick for him LTO. At 11/2 he looks worthy of a wager.

BONFIRE KNIGHT ran an absolute stinker LTO and for no apparent reason as he held a decent position half-a-mile out then didn’t run on. The 5lb claimer Harry Bentley is not a bad lad and I reckon there is not much opposition in this so BONFIRE KNIGHT is taken to bounce back. I’d want more than the 7/1 on offer tho’, but with 2 non-runners and only 8 going to post, that may be the best there is.

Lastly, CALLISTO MOON has never won beyond 2-mile & 2-furlongs so he was never going to stay 2m4f LTO. However, that race was his first in 7-months and his first for trainer Pat Murphy. Now, Murphy has not had a winner in over 12 months – jumps or flat – but CALLISTO MOON led LTO until just before the 2nd-last flight and he really needed that run. He was rated OR125 just over a year ago, and runs off OR110 today and this extended 2-mile trip will be just right for him as will the going. At 18/1 with Victor Chandler, he is an eachway wager.

Selections:
Haydock 2:05, ZUIDER ZEE, ½pt win @ 7/2 (available generally, take best odds guaranteed)
Newmarket 2:50, CAI SHEN, ½pt win @ 11/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Stratford 5:50, CALLISTO MOON, ¼pt eachway @ 18/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed_
Total = 1½pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Friday, 27 May 2011

An AUDACIOUS move

This is the 289th edition of the daily blog page.

No selections yesterday, but what a narrative!
At Newcastle I focused on the 6:55 and just 2 horses; DUBAI DYNAMO and XILERATOR – and they finished 1st and 2nd. Of XILERATOR, I wrote: “His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway)”. Well, he WON at 14/1. Actually, that’s not a fair description, he annihilated the opposition winning by 5-lengths.

At Brighton, the narrative also highlighted 5/2 winner JACK’S REVENGE (trainer George Baker’s only runner of the day), altho’ he was helped by the late withdrawal of the fav Final Liberation at the stalls. At Folkestone, I advised leaving Sir Michaels Stoute’s only runner there – Adone – alone; and he was indeed 3rd at 11/8 (a good lay opportunity).

As for my blog selection AKMAL, he was beaten by the weather which turned the going to good-to-soft. I expected some showers, but I did not anticipate major thunderstorms! Had I known the going would change the way it did, then there was only one horse to be on, and that was the winner Blue Bajan as he was the only one in the field who ran best with “give”. As such, odds of 4/1 on him were excellent. For the final race at Sandown, I did write there would be plenty of pace on, and Sandown is perfect for a bold front-runner – the race was won by top-weight D’unno who made all. Note that the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes earlier on the card was very nearly nicked by a front-running performance by Poet, who was only caught by the superlative WORKFORCE (Derby and Arc winner, 2010) in the final 100 yards, with the rest well beaten (11 lengths back to the 3rd).

Before continuing, there will be a blog for this Saturday, and on Sunday I will publish a complete list of the Flat Racing Notebook (as otherwise there is no permanent record on the blog). After that, regular blog pages will not be published until Monday 4th July. Next week is Whitsun half-term, so I am in Cornwall visiting my 8yo son. After that, I have a couple of week’s revision for some professional exams on 20th June. Then, its 2-weeks in Ibiza for some R&R. During this period I will continue updating the Notebook of well-handicapped horses, so do not desert the blog. Please continue to visit, especially on a Thursday and Friday (except when I am in Ibiza).

Again, plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Brighton, Newmarket and Newcastle this afternoon, and meetings at Haydock and Pontefract this evening. On days like today, I reckon your best-off focusing on what trainers are doing. For instance, yesterday Gary Moore who went into the day with a 44% strike rate of placed horses in the past 14-days had just one horse out – and that was RED YARN who was 2nd at Folkestone at 18/1 btn just a head!

Nothing jumps out at Brighton or Newcastle.
At Newmarket, there are a couple that need closer inspection. Sir Michael Stoute has just one runner out today, and it’s the Queen’s filly AUDACIOUS in the 4:40. This 3yo handicap is usually hotly contested (previous winners include Bronze Cannon and Monterosso) and this year is no exception. Cumani sends Danadana, but I reckon this one (who’s dam is related to Lost Soldier Three) will want 12f+ and will be tapped for speed. What gets me is that Mark Johnston’s Malthouse who looked such an impressive winner at Sandown last week, comes here on a 6lb penalty but is still 2lb below his revised rating for that win - and yet is 9/1. This is a tricky race to fathom, but at the current odds MALTHOUSE is the value being race-fit (ran 6-days ago), 2lb well-in on OR, and he looks progressive. But, as Stoute has only AUDACIOUS running and he’s got his stable in tip-top form; and 4/1 looks too big.
Before that at 4:05, we see Reg Hollinsheads only runner today FLOWING CAPE. This horse needs 7-furlongs and GF going, and he’s got it today. He’s also got the best jockey going on-board in Ryan Moore. This is a 17-runner race, and FLOWING CAPE is worth an eachway interest at 10/1 (Tote).
Haydock’s evening meeting looks disappointing, so I’ll pass that over.
I like Pontefract, but the racing there is uninspiring.

Selections:
We dropped ½pt yesterday, somewhat needlessly, and so I am going for one I’ve been waiting to get his perfect conditions – FLOWING CAPE. I am also taking the odds on AUDACIOUS primarily as it is Stoute’s only runner today and he would not send a “duffer” to contest such a competitive race.

Newmarket 4:05, FLOWING CAPE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Tote, ¼ odds, 4 places)
Newmarket 4:40, AUDACIOUS, ½pt win @ 4/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Thursday, 26 May 2011

A day of "if's & but's"

This is the 288th edition of the daily blog page.

No selections yesterday. Instead, I spent much of the day going thru’ the results pull-out from the Weekender and updating my Horse Alert List (see adjacent page). I reckon I have found some crackers there, mainly focused on several exceptionally competitive races. Why not take a look and find out which horse I think one of Newmarket’s handicap “kings” may be lining-up for the Ebor Handicap.

Plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Ayr, Brighton and Folkestone this afternoon, but the highlights of the day are the meetings at Newcastle this evening and particularly at Sandown.
I can happily give the meeting at Ayr a miss.

Brighton has an interesting race at 3:10 with a ”dark-horse” from Sir Mark Prescott FINAL LIBERATION who is bred to be better than OR55 (a lot better, as its dam is a half-sister to a Group 3 winner) and he holds an entry for another Class 6 h’cap next Tuesday. Sir Mark’s multiple entries always puts me on the alert. George Baker has his only runner of the day in this in Jack’s Revenge which should ensure some decent odds about FINAL LIBERATION who is 3/1 as I write – don’t take less. An old friend of mine PHLUKE runs in the 4:10 and he only just failed LTO on his seasonal debut over C&D. The old-timer can only hold his form for a few races these days and he should give a good account of himself today here. I would not take 100/30 tho’, and I’d be looking for 5/1 as he only has the one style of running – flat out with nothing in reserve.

If Sir Michael Stoute (strike rate of 43%, 6 wins from 14 runners) sends a horse to Folkestone, take note. However, even I will pass-over Adone in the 4:30 as this race is filled with “dodge-pots”. The rest of this meeting is ordinary.

From one end of the country to the other, and in the 6:55 DUBAI DYNAMO reappears with a 6lb penalty and, tho’ I don’t think the penalty will stop him, at odds of just 7/4 I cannot recommend him, especially with a horse with the potential of XILERATOR in the race. His half-bro’s Inxile (OR108) and Tax Free (OR112) were very talented and XILERATOR has only run 6 times. His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway).

In the Class 3, 6-furlong h’cap at 8:35, I thought Dickie Le Daviour had a great chance of following-up his LTO win as he’ll get the strong pace he needs – but this race has a couple who may upset him. Noodle Blue Boy loves Newcastle (a record of 212122 at this track) and he’ll be fit to do well today; he’s better than a 8/1 chance. Also, Silver Rime has his 1st attempt at a trip less than 7-furlongs in this and he ran a cracker here LTO when 3rd. He also should not be 12/1.

At Sandown, the Henry II Stakes is a weak Group 2 in my opinion. I think Blue Bajan was flattered LTO in the Yorkshire Cup and he’s not OR111. Akmal is best on GF going, it’s already “good” and he won’t be helped by further rain today. Nehaam is an interesting runner as he was last seen when 2nd to Akmal at Ascot in 2009 in the Group 3 Jockey Club Cup. We know from last season that Gosden can bring a stayer back to life from a break, but even Samuel (who went on to win Doncaster Cup) needed a couple of runs. Thing is, I don’t think the fav Holberg is a true 2-miler of a horse, and so where do we look now? Well, AKMAL won this race last year when allowed to dictate the pace, and I think he’ll do the same again tonight. At 5/1 (Corals), he looks the value wager. The rest of the card is a cracker, and I will be paying particular attention to the final race, the Whitsun Handicap over a mile as this will be run at a helluva pace (or should be) and it will set the race up for a finisher, and I like the look of Hughie Morrison’s NAZREEF but, with only 15 going to post, I will be watching only.

Selections:
There are too many “if’s & but’s” today, and so I am going for a previous selection to recoup, and that’s AKMAL, who should be fit enough today to do the business.

Sandown 7:05, AKMAL, ½pt win @ 5/1 (Corals & Sportingodds)
Total = ½pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Wednesday, 25 May 2011

Tremendous 6/1 winner yesterday

This is the 287th edition of the daily blog page.

We hit the back of the net with DUBAI DYNAMO @ 6/1 yesterday who won with a tonne in-hand. I’ve been following this horse since July last year when he ran in (what was) the Bunbury Cup off a rating of OR99. He won yesterday off OR85, so he has plenty of scope for a follow-up.
But, what a write-up on the race.
Of Snow Bay (finished 3rd), I wrote “won’t be far away”; and of Bea Remembered (finished 4th), I wrote “she looks better than a 16/1 chance”; and of Lord Aeryn (finished 2nd) I wrote “is no value at 3/1”. Just 4 horses mentioned in the race and they finished 1,2,3,4 – and I selected the winner!

DUBAI DYNAMO won in the fashion of a Stewart Simpson (“Always Back Winners”) horse, showing a tremendous turn-of-foot. I’ve been following this horse since it ran in the Bunbury Cup (type his name into my blog search facility) and he’s entered to run at Newcastle tomorrow (Thursday) plus he holds entries for Friday and Saturday.

I can’t say the same thing about the other blog selection, FRANCISCAN. I really thought Luca Cumani had a decent one here (and perhaps he still does, but there’s plenty of work required) but, other than stay-on, it was very disappointing. It looks like I read too much into his win at Haydock back in April – he’s out of the Notebook.

I led with a headline on Sir Mark Prescott and, yesterday, he did me proud. He sent out 3 horses, to 3 different tracks, and the only one beaten was that ridden by his stable jockey Seb Sanders! At Ripon, Motivado won the race contested by FRANCISCAN (but he did not look particularly exciting), and at Chepstow the horse I described as “bred to run in the Derby” - KEPLER’S LAW – won in a canter at 5/2 (he was 4/1 in the morning when I wrote about him). I said he was worth a speculative wager, and perhaps I should have made him a selection (I certainly would if I’d known Motivado was going to win at Ripon). I will be adding KEPLER’S LAW to my alert list immediately as he is far better than his OR57 rating (full bro’ Bashkirov is still in training in Ireland, was btn less than 5-lengths in the Irish Derby). His half-bro’ Summitville was 2nd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and rated OR109.

When it comes to wagering on the horses, patience is a virtue, and you should never be in a rush to place a bet. Today’s meeting at Ayr (on the flat) is one I can happily pass-over. The meeting this evening at Beverley is more interesting. Frankie Dettori rides Solicitor who won over C&D last July. He holds a few other entries this weekend, and if he’s fit enough then he’ll take some beating today which will prime him for a follow-up under a penalty.

The 2yo fillies race at 7:30 is one to watch as Tim Easterby won this race several times in the early “noughties” and his QUEENS REVENGE (owned by respected judge Henry Ponsonby) could be the best of these here today.

No selections at the moment, but if I decide on one this evening at Beverley, then I will post a supplementary blog later this afternoon before 5pm. So, please return to this blog after 5pm to see if there is a selection.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Tuesday, 24 May 2011

Sir Mark Prescott up to his tricks again

This is the 286th edition of the daily blog page.

No selections yesterday, but it was an interesting day’s racing, and my followers on twitter will know that I layed the odds-on fav in the fillies h’cap at Carlisle at 3:30, Monicalew. I couldn’t work out why she was odds-on and thought she should have been at much longer odds (despite it looking a weak race) and she duly came 6th having been a beaten horse nearly half-a-mile out. You don’t only have to find winners in this game to make a profit. In the race before that, the lightly-raced 4yo filly Epernay won well despite looking very green. She looks like she could handle another couple of furlongs easily; even so, she is entered to run tomorrow back over a mile.
The highlight of the day was the 6-furlong Class 1 (Listed) race at Windsor, which was won by Bated Breath. This horse has yet to stop improving and this was a career-best effort which I rated 118. Runner-up Triple Aspect (who won this race last year) ran right up to his best, and Libranno in 3rd did the same. What was most eye-catching for me was the run by MONSIEUR CHEVALIER who was an exciting 2yo and winner of the Super Sprint and Molecombe. Off for 596 days with a cracked pelvis, he was full of running with just over a furlong to go, but Richard Hughes was easy on him and when a gap appeared in the final furlong, he slipped thru’ it without any inducement and I reckon he easily could have beaten his stablemate Libranno and taken 3rd with a stronger ride. He will likely go to Royal Ascot next and he could be one to be on there.

Today is a fairly ordinary day, although there is a decent Class 3 handicap over a mile at Ripon. This race has gone to some decent types recently, tho’ I note that it is 6 years since it went to a horse aged 4yo or younger. The fav is Lord Aeryn, but I reckon he is over-rated and is no value at 3/1. Ruth Carr won this last year with Charlie Cool and she sends DUBAI DYNAMO today, and he’s in top form. At 6/1, he looks value in this. Snow Bay won’t be far away, but one who looks interesting is Brian Meehan’s BEA REMEMBERED. She wasn’t beaten far in a Listed race at the Curragh last summer which was run in a fast time, and she looks better than a 16/1 chance if she comes on for her recent stable debut.

One from the Notebook (see adjacent page) is FRANCISCAN who runs in the 3:10 at Ripon. This half-bro to top horse Forte Dei Marmi (who improved from OR73 to OR111 as 3yo) has a long-stride and did not enjoy his outing at Windsor LTO; Ripon will suit him better. The opposition does not look strong in this, tho’ Sir Mark Prescott has a runner in it in Motivado who could be on an interesting mark if he is an improver. But for me, FRANCISCAN running off OR70 is the one to beat, tho’ I would not want to take any less than his current odds of 4/1.

Chepstow is the other Flat race meeting today, and it looks uninspiring apart from the 4:50 which is a class 6 h’cap over 12-furlongs. In it, Sir Mark Prescott runs a horse bred to run in the Derby, KEPLER’S LAW. In fact, his full brother Bashkirov ran in the Irish Derby of 2008, and his half-bro’ Summitville (OR109) was a consistent and regular Group race runner (2nd in Group 1, Sun Chariot Stakes). So then, what is this horse doing at Chepstow running off OR57? Well, he’ll need to be on his toes to beat Westhaven who won 3-days ago, but at 4/1 he looks worthy of a speculative punt.

Selections
Ripon 3:10, FRANCISCAN, 1pt win @ 4/1 (available generally and take best odds guaranteed)
Ripon 3:40, DUBAI DYNAMO, ½pt win @ 6/1 (available generally and take best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Monday, 23 May 2011

A comeback for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

This is the 285th edition of the daily blog page.

After a decent Saturday, the blog starts this week having reduced the deficit to 3.58pts. As I commented on Saturday after knowing the results, I am feeling very confident that the work I’ve put in assessing past results (provided in the results pull-out in the Weekender) is coming to fruition. Of course, on a day like Saturday which had 6 flat-racing meetings, I could have put-up a dozen-or-so selections and bamboozled my readers and followers on twitter, but that is not the point of this blog. My over-riding edict is to…

write an informative and entertaining blog which provides the reader with advice on horseracing.”

Alongside that (of course) is the expectation that advice will provide readers with a profit in the long-term if following the wagers advised.

Having watched the re-runs of racing on Saturday, I was miffed that we didn’t get off to a good winner with WINTER’S NIGHT. She easily got the mile having taken a wide line into the straight, and then tried to run-up the stands rail. She was alongside the eventual winner at that point but, (unlike Sagramor) did not get a clear run thru’. Once seeing daylight at the furlong pole she finished like a steam-train but would not have caught the winner. I hope the handicapper is lenient as she looks a winner in waiting. A word for Sagramor, this horse was bought-in by his owner breeder for just £500 at Brightwells sales – who says unfashionable breeding can’t produce winners?

Next up (just 15 mins later) was HARLESTONE TIMES, and had I known that he would drift out to 3/1 then I would’ve suggested a 2pts stake. In the morning I thought he looked so “well-in” (as the form of his previous race had worked-out so well) that I expected him to start the 2/1 (or shorter) fav. However, as can happen with the exchanges on a Saturday, the punters went for the “potential” of Beachfire who has now failed for the 3rd time to live-up to his form when winning at Goodwood last summer. It looked a workmanlike slog for HARLESTONE TIMES in taking this, as the runner-up Nave ran a brave race on going that was a lot quicker than he likes. Even so, it was run in a fast time and I’d expect HARLESTONE TIMES to get a mile & 6-fulongs this season (like his half-bro, the ill-fated Harlestone Snake).

The 3rd selection on Saturday, NORVILLE, ran his usual game, front-running race. As I said in my blog on Saturday, having been beaten off OR90 LTO, having to run of OR95 was a tough task and it was only as he was racing at Chester from a good draw, and the track suited his style of running, that I made him a selection. He may well struggle now unless he gets some respite from the handicapper.

I also mentioned KARAKA JACK in the narrative on Saturday and didn’t recommend a wager on him as I reckon he needs 7-furlongs. Well, I was right AND wrong with this one. Yes, he didn’t win – but were it not being caught close home by Dickie Le Daviour he would have. So, I stick to my guns and suggest that 7-furlongs and going on the quick side of good will bring the best out of KARAKA JACK, but I was wrong in thinking he did not have the speed to win (or run well) at 6-furlongs.

There are no blog selections as I write this, tho’ there is an interesting race at Thirsk at 8:00 over 12f that I may return later on with a selection for. So, please check the blog again at about 5pm. At Windsor, there is (or was) a potentially very good 6-furlong Listed race and I was going to recommend Elnawin, but he’s a non-runner. While I think Bated Breath has potential to be very good in this sphere, his overall speed ratings don’t excite me, so he’s not a value wager at 5/4. But Richard Hannon’s MONSIEUR CHEVALIER was an exciting 2yo and, even tho’ he’s been off for 596 days with a cracked pelvis, memories of his wins in the Super Sprint and Molecombe are still fresh. He didn’t get 6-furlongs as a 2yo, but at 12/1 (Bet365 and Boyles) he looks worthy of an eachway wager.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Sunday, 22 May 2011

Ending the week with a winner

A good end to the week with HARLESTONE TIMES winning for the blog at 3/1, and WINTER'S NIGHT coming home 3rd at 10/1 (advised). The 3rd blog selection, NORVILLE, only failed by a neck to hold on to 3rd spot having led for most of the race.

Although the highlight was HARLESTONE TIMES winning, for me the results showed the benefit of the hard work in finding well-handicapped horses. For instance KARAKA JACK, who I've had in my notebook for a few weeks and I knew was well-in, ran yesterday over 6-furlongs (a trip I reckon is short of his best) and only failed by a neck to win.

I am full of confidence now that my efforts are starting to bare fruit.

The Flat Racing Notebook is adjacent, so be sure to take a look.

Saturday, 21 May 2011

Can we cope with an OVERDOSE?

This is the 283rd edition of the daily blog page (made a bit of a booboo and didn’t add up the pages adjacent correctly).

After a week of (on the whole) boring run-of-the-mill racing, we have today a programme of racing around the country that is filled with competitive and compelling races.

But, before that, yesterday’s selection TAURUS TWINS was heavily supported thru’out the day from 12/1 in the morning to opening on-course at 6’s, before starting with an SP of 5/1. Had I known he would shorten so much, I would have advised “trading-out” your stake at 6/1 (7.00 on the exchanges) as then you would have had a completely no-risk wager. Unfortunately, he met a rival who only knows one-way of running – flat out from the start, and Bronze Beau got the lead and held it to the finish. I would not expect Bronze Beau to follow-up, and believe that if TAURUS TWINS had come out of the stalls a bit quicker and raced alongside him then TAURUS TWINS would have won as Bronze Beau does not enjoy fighting for the lead.

Onto today and where do I start?
Meetings are at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock and York this afternoon, with Newbury and Lingfield this evening.
From my Flat Racing Notebook we have:-
WINTER’S NIGHT in the 2:30 at Haydock
NORVILLE in the 4:00 at Chester
KARAKA JACK in the 4:05 at Haydock

NORVILLE is racing over 7-furlongs at Chester and he only just failed over C&D LTO. His form is holding up well (Swiss Cross behind in 3rd that day, won NTO) and he will run his heart out today. But he could not win off OR90 LTO and off OR95 today he will have a tough task. Even so, current odds of 7/1 look fair given he has stall 5 and should be up with the pace thru’out on a track that suits his style of running. The rest of the Chester card looks great, open and competitive handicaps and anyone going racing will have tremendous entertainment today.

Haydock is the day’s feature meeting and the WINTER’S NIGHT runs in the 2:30 which is a very competitive h’cap over a mile. I think the likely fav Polar Kite is an improving sort, but who will probably want further than a mile, like his full-brother Icemancometh. But, Polar Kite will ensure a good pace and that is what WINTER’S NIGHT needs. It is a step-up in trip for her, but she looks like she needs a mile and she was only raised 3lb for her win LTO. Drawn 13 isn’t the best of draws, but at 10/1 she looks fair value and with 4-places (17 runners) she is a decent eachway wager.

If OVERDOSE is the real-deal, then he’ll win the Temple Stakes at 3:00, and at 7/2 (Betfred) it’s worth taking the chance that he is. Finally, KARAKA JACK drops down to 6-furlongs today for the 4:05 at Haydock, and I think that’s the wrong move – he needs 7-furlongs.

At York, I would have been on Humidor for the 5f sprint at 3:40, but he’s a non-runner. As such, I would recommend supporting Ancient Cross in this as he was a close 2nd to Humidor in October last year and that form is working out well. He won over C&D at the Dante meeting last week and he will go close – but betting on 19-runner 5-furlong races is perilous at best.

At Goodwood, previous blog selection HARLESTONE TIMES runs in the 2:45, a class 2 112-furlong h’cap. Of those who finished behind him at Epsom, Rock A Doodle Doo and Zigato have since won, and I thought HARLESTONE TIMES was unlucky in that race and tho’ he may not have won (the winner looked very good) he may have pushed it close. He was raised 6lb for that run, but he’s won at Goodwood before, and is clearly a well-balanced horse who can cope with the undulations being a winner at Brighton, and also his good run at Epsom. Odds of 5/2 are not great, but it is hard to see one in this race being better today.

The blog is in need of a winner and a good winner too. So, here are today’s selections:-

Selection:
Haydock 2:30, WINTER’S NIGHT, ½pt eachway @ 10/1
(Bet365 & William Hill, best odds guaranteed – 4 places, ¼ odds a place)
Goodwood 2:45, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Chester 4:00, NORVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (Bet365 & Betfred, best odds guaranteed – 3 places, 5th odds a place)
Total = 3pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Friday, 20 May 2011

Conditions are right for TAURUS TWINS

This is the 281st edition of the daily blog page.

Sometimes, I wish I followed my heart more than my head when wagering on the horses. That was the case with the single race that I looked at yesterday. Sam Sharpe, having his first run for Ian Williams, showed again that he can go well when fresh, and sauntered home off a mark of OR82. When I wrote the blog yesterday, he was 33/1 and it was those odds that put me off. It shouldn’t have, but it did, as I thought there was no “support” from connections. Once the blog was written and posted the support came – and Sam Sharp started at an SP of 12/1. The one horse that I thought was guaranteed a place in the race – CHARLIE COOL – ran well enough to be 4th but never looked like winning. With everything in his favour in this race, he needs respite from the handicapper but, being so consistent, it’s unlikely he’ll get that.
This handicap at Haydock is well worth noting as it appears to be targeted by trainers with progressive and under-rated 4yo’s , and the 2nd & 3rd home – Tartan Trip and Our Joe Mac – should be noted as horses to follow over the coming weeks.

There are afternoon Flat racing venues at Haydock, Bath and Yarmouth today.

At Bath, Roger Charlton (24% strikerate at Bath) sends just one runner in CAMBERLEY TWO for the 3:10 there, but the fact he’s put Chris Catlin in the saddle puts me off. In the 3:40, I made a note of FLOWING CAPE (OR79) when he was 2nd to Norville (OR78) btn just ½ a length. Norville has since won, and very nearly won again and is now rated OR95 – whereas FLOWING CAPE was raised just 4lb to OR83. Is FLOWING CAPE theoretically 12lb well-in? Personally, I’d like to see him return to 7-furlongs and today’s trip is likely to expose him. Again, Chris Catlin has the ride and perhaps I’m being too critical off him as he does seem to be riding well at the moment.

Yarmouth regularly produces a feast of racing (not!) and I am happy to pass this meeting over.

I am disappointed with the meeting at Haydock this afternoon from a wagering point of view, as it looks like a “layers” paradise to me. I’ll be looking to “place-lay” one in the opening race, probably Pandoro De Lago who, despite being a half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity (who won a Listed race on the Flat over 10-furlongs) looks a horse who wants “give” in the going (like Sublimity) and seems to be a bit slow.

This evenings meetings at Catterick and Musselburgh are also of poor quality; tho’ I reckon Taurus Twins may run better on this drop back to 5-furlongs than odds of 12/1 suggest. Despite being drawn worst (9 of 9) for the 7:50, he’ll blast from the stalls and it’ll take a good one to catch him. Remember, he broke the course record at Windsor over 5-furlongs on GF; then, the going (good) was too slow for him NTO, and LTO the 6-furlong trip was too far. Five furlongs on quick going is what he needs and when he last ran on turf on a track like Catterick (at Pontefract on 19Oct09) he was 2nd when drawn worst of all, 12 of 12, having led most of the way.

At the moment, I have no selection for the afternoon racing, but I am going to have a small wager on TAURUS TWINS at Catterick this evening.

Selection:
Catterick 7:50, TAURUS TWINS, ½pt win @ 12/1 (Boylesports & William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Total = ½pt staked

Thanks for the comments on yesterday’s blog, and if anyone else wants to provide feedback, please do. I will be up-dating the Flat Horse Notebook page during the day, so please refer to it when you can.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Thursday, 19 May 2011

Competitve h'cap at Haydock today

This is the 280th edition of the daily blog page.

There was just one selection for the blog yesterday – PICTURE EDITOR at Goodwood. I was right in deducing that the market leaders for this 11-furlong race would struggle to stay the trip, but the horse I selected to take advantage was the wrong one. The winner, Masked Marvel, improved considerably for his seasonal debut at Sandown a couple of weeks back, and this Gosden trained German-bred may be the sort that develops into a St Leger candidate during the season as Gosden took Lucarno on a similar path to St Leger glory in 2007. PICTURE EDITOR did pull a fair bit early-on (I often wonder why jockeys don’t allow horses just to run-on and settle down into a rhythm as they lose so much energy when being restrained) but he didn’t pick-up when asked, even tho’ he stayed the trip. It was remarked that he was a bit small (compared to the others) and it’s likely we’ve seen the best of him.
The other horse mentioned on the blog – BEATRICE AURORE – looked impressive when winning at an SP of 2/1, and she’s improving hand-over-fist. Quotes of 20/1 (available generally) are not unreasonable for the Oaks in a couple of weeks time. She has a good cruising speed, pace at the business end and, with a couple of wins at Goodwood, is clearly balanced and likely to be capable of dealing with coming down Tattenham Hill at speed.

There are some good Flat racing venues today (Sandown, Haydock, Salisbury) but the racing planned is ordinary. As such, I’m only looking at the one race, and that’s the class 3 h’cap over a mile at Haydock at 4:00pm.
Statistically, this is an interesting race. Only 1 winner in past 10 years has carried more than 9st3lb to victory (Beauchamp Pilot in 1993, and he went on to win the Cambridgeshire later in the year off a 15lb higher rating!). The race usually goes to a well-fancied horse (only 2 winners at longer odds than 10/1) but those at the head of the market this year look vulnerable.
She’s A Character won for the 1st time LTO since her 2yo debut and she’s had plenty of opportunities to win off OR80 (today’s rating) and failed (1 win from 9 starts at OR80 or less).
Tartan Trip won a weak class 4 h’cap over a mile on GF last summer (the next 3 home have since recorded just 1 win from 35 subsequent starts), and I reckon he’ll struggle today.
Colour Scheme has not improved since his impressive 3yo debut, and I feel he has yet to find his best trip.
Charlie Cool is best at around a mile (0 from 18 at 9f+; 5 wins from 24 over 8f to 9f). He won the race he contested LTO when he ran in it last year – but that win was off a 11lb lower rating. He’s in top form and this is his time of year and he has a touch of class (3rd in the Wolferton in 2007).
Cheers For Thea is due to go up 3lb for her 2nd LTO, but I feel she is best at under a mile (and she has no 5lb claimer riding today).
Our Joe Mack needs going softer than good.
Hacienda ran some good races last season on GF going, and has run respectably this season on going slower than he prefers. Another front-runner who will ensure it’s a stamina test today.
Satwa Laird has only won once from 9 starts at around a mile and I feel he isn’t proven to stay.
Douze Points, with just 1 win from 27 starts – no thanks.
South Cape looks to be on a tough rating at OR89.
Venutius ran a cracker last July at Newmarket over a mile when just beaten (and raised 5lb to OR92 for the effort), and off the same mark today (OR87) if he’s fit to do himself justice this front-runner will do well. If he needs the run, mark him as one to watch. Graham Gibbons rides and he is an under-estimated jockey.
High Resolution is best at Hamilton.
Layla’s Hero is not proven beyond 6-furlongs.
Celtic Change is another horse who – if fit – will do well here, but would prefer going to be quicker.
Marjury Daw will likely find this trip too short and the going too slow.
And that leaves just Sam Sharpe. He has his first run for Ian Williams today (was with Henry Cecil) and this £160,000 yearling has only had 10 starts to date, only seeing the track twice as a 4yo last season. He ran well on his seasonal debut last year to suggest he could figure in today’s race off a mark of OR82.

Do I have a selection? As I write this, I’m not sure. Why? Well, nothing jumps out of the page at me, but with the pace of the race almost certain to be hot with front-runners like She’s A Character, Hacienda, Venutius, Celtic Change and Sam Sharpe, it could set the race up for a finisher. With 16 going to post, there are 4 places on offer, as such HACIENDA at 12/1 looks good to be in the 1st-4 home, and I do like the potential of VENUTIUS at 16/1. Those likely to come with a run and finish in the places are Charlie Cool and Cheers For Thea, and of that pair I prefer CHARLIE COOL at 9/1 (available generally) who races today at his best trip and we know the horse is in form and that he holds his form. One I am wary of is Meehan’s Colour Scheme, as he could be the sort who comes good today - and he does meet the "profile" of the race(4yo, carrying under 9st3lb, unplaced LTO).

Overall, no selection today as the one horse I want to have a wager on – CHARLIE COOL – was available at 12/1 early doors and I wish I’d taken that.

Thanks for the comments on yesterday’s blog , and if anyone else wants to provide feedback, please do. As I said, I need some feedback as I’m coming to a busy period personally with exams, holidays and what-not (I’d much rather be in the garden than behind a computer on a sunny day) and if there’s little response to the content then I may as well throttle back and wait for the return of the jumps season in October.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Wednesday, 18 May 2011

Cecil to unviel Derby hopeful today?

No selections yesterday, and I’m a bit miffed with myself.
After writing the blog, I went out for the afternoon returning at about 5pm to prepare the evening meal. At about 6:15, I found myself with an hour-or-so free – so I thought I’d take another look at the evening racing and focused on the 2m4f h’cap hurdle at Towcester at 7:40. I didn’t think much of the market leaders (Not Sure Dick, and Sizing Ireland) and thought perhaps that there was value to be found elsewhere. Anyway, to cut a long story short, I ended-up selecting Speedy Directa (who won with an SP of 4/1) but passed him over as I thought I’d missed the “value” as he’d already come in from 7/1 to 11/2. He won the race in a canter! The key to him is getting him settled early in the race 3lb claimer Jimmy Derham managed to do just that. Watching the race, I couldn’t help but think that CALLISTO MOON must be near ready to resume winning ways. Having his first run for trainer Pat Murphy (who hasn’t had a winner in over 12 months on the Jumps, and over 2 years on the Flat), he was going like the winner until the 2nd-last flight (about 3-furlongs out) and probably would’ve been 3rd but for his jockey losing his irons when the horse clouted the final flight. CALLISTO MOON has won twice on Firm going at Bath on the flat over 2m1f (in fact, he won 4 times from 5 starts in the summer of 2009 on the Flat), and he was 2nd (off OR120) in a Class 2 hurdle over 2m3½f at Sandown in April 2009. The winner that day – Sangfoid – now races off 13lb higher; 3rd-placed Tasheba remains on the same mark of OR135; and that was the last time that French Opera in 6th ran over hurdles. It’s unlikely that CALLISTO MOON will have his rating of OR113 raised for last night’s run and given his liking for fast going he looks one to follow for the summer.

There are 2 Flat race meetings today at Goodwood and Lingfield, and I’m going to give the latter a miss and concentrate on Goodwood.

I noted Imperial Pippin when she won on her racecourse debut a month ago as a potential high-flyer and I note she’s entered for the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot (but not the Oaks). However, the fact that her trainer John Gosden has 2 entered in this race suggests (to me) that that confidence isn’t huge in either. As this race has been used recently as a stepping-stone to the Oaks at Epsom, John Dunlop’s entry BEATRICE AURORE who is a course winner over a mile (and holds an entry to the Oaks) looks the most likely winner, but she’s no 7/4 chance; more like 11/4.

The Cocked Hat Stakes is another interesting race, and both Badeel and Auld Burns look capable of winning at this level based on their form this season. However, today’s 1m3f trip will test their stamina and Auld Burns already looks like finding 10-furlongs his limit, and Badeel’s pedigree is filled with “milers”. That leads me to PICTURE EDITOR who was vastly unsuited by the 7-furlongs of the Greenham Stakes when used as a pacemaker for stablemate Frankel. Already a winner over 10-furlongs as a 2yo, his family is littered with staying blood (half-bro Greenwich Meantime won the Chester Cup) and it has long associations with Henry Cecil. At odds of 9/2 (Stan James and Sportingodds, fixed), he looks well-up to spec as a worthwhile wager. Remember, after winning on his 2yo debut he was thought of as the winter Derby favourite (till Frankel emerged), and had Genius Beast behind that day (and he beat Auld Burns LTO). I'd rate PICTURE EDITOR a 2/1 chance in this race.

Selection:
Goodwood 4:20, PICTURE EDITOR, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James or Sportingodds)
Total = 1pt staked

Has anyone any thoughts on the blog and the Horse Alert List for the Flat racing? I need some feedback as I’m coming to a busy period personally with exams, holidays and what-not (I’d much rather be in the garden than behind a computer on a sunny day) and if there’s little response to the content then I may as well throttle back and wait for the return of the jumps season in October.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Tuesday, 17 May 2011

Everyone has an UNCLE FRED

No selections yesterday, and it’s another fairly ordinary day’s horseracing today.
There is a meeting at Brighton, but I’ll give that a miss as I don’t like the track. There is another Flat (turf) meeting at Nottingham and an AW meeting at Kempton.
At Nottingham, a jockey I keep a lookout for – Graham Gibbons – has just one ride; Rowan Spirit in the opening 6f h’cap for 3yo’s. He had a single ride last night at Windsor for Ed McMahon and that one came last of 7. Outside of the elite top jockeys with their handsome retainers, life for a “freelance” can be tough.
The rest of the meeting at Nottingham looks very ordinary and nothing catches my eye.
At Kempton, it is not surprising that Gosden’s BANKSY is the fav for the opener. This 2yo cost £70,000 in March this year, and showed a lot of speed LTO at Haydock. With Gosden having a good record at Kempton with his 2yo’s this is the most likely winner of the 6:00.
The only other item of interest at this meeting is why has Sir Michael Stoute kept the 4yo BOTANIST in training? OK, so he’s a full brother to Group 1 winning filly Full Bloom (also trained by Stoute), but the horse was lacklustre in 2 appearances last season. Since that last run, botanist has been gelded and that may bring about an improvement in attitude – but perhaps he’s just not that much good as his half-sister Full Blossom wasn’t up to much winning only a Class 5 maiden on her 11th start. For me, with the presence of Botanist in the race, there should be value elsewhere and UNCLE FRED should get the good pace he needs. UNCLE FRED is in top form at the moment, and he’s a winner at Kempton on the AW. He also ran well here on his last visit over a mile last July, and the only worry is that he may be held-up too much. At 6/1, he looks the value for me as if Botanist was with any other unfashionable stable, he’d be more like 10/1 for this and UNCLE FRED would be 7/2 or maybe even shorter.

No selections today, but UNCLE FRED is worthy of a small eachway wager at 6/1 or longer.

I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today. Some that I have written about include:

Zuider Zee / Imperial Guest / Free For All / Baisse / Admiral Of The Red
Boogie Shoes / Four Nations / Space War / Colombian / Tres Coronas / Winter’s Night

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Monday, 16 May 2011

CANFORD CLIFFS on track to be seasons top miler

An interesting day’s racing on Saturday, despite there being no blog selections.

The Lockinge went – as expected – to CANFORD CLIFFS. However, he didn’t get things all his own way as the Italian challenger WORTHADD ran right up to his best form here. As such, I rated CANFORD CLIFFS performance at 124 which means he should have another 6 or 7lb improvement in him. WORTHADD won the Group 2 Premier Ribot in Italy, beating Sehrezad (gave Worthadd a 1lb) a neck. Just 2 weeks ago, Sehrezad was 3rd in the Gp2 Prix Du Muguet, just a neck behind BYWORD (giving away 3lb) who (if you recall) won the Group 1 Prince OF Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot.
I know it is hindsight, but you really should not underestimate “foreign” challengers on these shores and at 25/1 WORTHADD was grossly under-estimated.
Earlier at Newbury, one that I was looking out for was ADDICTIVE DREAM. Having watched this race several times I feel that the horse could have finished a lot closer (he was 4th beaten nearly 3-lengths) had he been ridden a little more prominently in the early stages rather than being restrained. This is my opinion, not a criticism of the jockey who perhaps thought the horse possessed a little more ability than he showed. He moved smoothly into a challenging position, but had no more left when asked for the final challenge. Some thought he didn’t stay this 6-fulrongs and that he may be better suited to a stiff 5-furlongs, but I think he got this trip just fine. The runner-up MAC’S POWER continues on a upward curve and may contest group races next month. The winner Novellen Lad has improved a lot for his move to trainer Willie Musson, but whether he can hold this form is debatable. As for the 3rd, Secret Witness, he was running off 18lb more than his last winning rating and since that win in May 2010 he’s run 14 times and come 2nd on 7 occasions, and 3rd another 3 times. As such, this race was a decent standard and ADDICTIVE DREAM needed to be in tip-top form to win. He remains on my HTF list.

Before I go on, today’s racing looks fairly ordinary, although there are a couple of interesting races this evening. What I am probably going to do is get this blog written this morning, and then (if there is something worthy of a wager or comment this evening) issue a supplementary blog about 4:30 this afternoon. For instance, jockey Graham Gibbons travel to the evening meeting at Windsor for only one ride in the final race on the card for trainer Ed McMahon – LOOK WHO’S KOOL. When jockeys can only ride at 9 meetings in a week, sacrificing a meeting for just a single ride (Gibbons had a single ride for McMahon on Noble Storm at Ascot on 6th May – 2nd btn a head; and a single ride on Ancient Cross at York on 12th May – won @ 10/1) means you should take notice.

At Doncaster on Saturday, MUSIC FESTIVAL (one that I made a note of when he winning previously) ran a decent race from 2lb out of the handicap. However, this drop in trip to 6-furlongs did not look like it suited him, and a return to 7-furlongs (or even a mile) looks to be what this son of the French Guineas winner - Musical Chimes - needs. The other horse I noted at Doncaster – MAVERIK – ran a cracker and just met one who looks destined to be a lot better than OR78 in The Mellor Fella. As such, MAVERIK stays on my HTF list, especially as his half-bro SOLAR ONE was 2nd in a couple of Group 1’s including the Prix Lupin in 1995 won by Flemensfirth. A step-up to a mile could bring about a lot of improvement.

At Newmarket, the good-to-firm going did for PARLOUR GAMES and a return to “good” (or, preferably, good-to-soft) as this well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks) horse looks the best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. The winner Glencadam Gold benefitted from the step-up to 12-furlongs and he became another winner from the race won by Chain Lightning at Sandown on 24th April. Hawaafez looks one-paced and may need a much longer trip as there is tonnes of stamina in her breeding (dam won over 1m6f).

At Thirsk, FAVOURITE GIRL was handicapped by the rain showers before and during her race. She is best on quick going (3 wins on GF). She was also carried into the centre of the track by the runner-up who was hanging left and, when she couldn’t win, her jockey gave her an easy time of it. As such she’s value for this run.

On Sunday (yesterday) at Ripon, DUBAI DYNAMO ran another good race to be 2nd (btn ½ a length) repeating his performance of last season when he was running off OR95, 12lbs higher than he is now. If he continues to follow the path of last season, he may next run at Chester next week. A look at the formbook tells you that he won at Newmarket on 29th May last year beating top handicapper St Moritz giving that horse a 1lb. This is his time of year!

I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen), and will continue to update during today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 14 May 2011

Look for "value" today

Unable to post a blog yesterday as Blogger was down.

Plenty of racing on a Saturday, with the highlight being the “Lockinge” at Newbury, with other Flat Race meetings at Newmarket, Thirsk and Doncaster.

The Lockinge is the race of the day and CANFORD CLIFFS should take a deal of beating. I followed him after his 3rd in the Two Thousand Guineas, and he did me proud winning twice at 3/1 and 11/4 in the Irish Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes respectively (enter Canford Cliffs into the blog search facility and read what I wrote on 14th May 2010).

At Thirsk, and old friend of mine FAVOURITE GIRL (check her out using the blog search facility) runs in the 4:25 and tho’ she’d prefer the going a bit quicker (3 wins on GF) she can take this race having had the benefit of a seasonal debut.

At Newmarket, in the 3:25 runs a horse that really excited me when he won LTO – PARLOUR GAMES. Well-bred (dam won Irish Oaks), he looks best produce so far of his dam Petrushka. He showed tremendous pace to pick-up long-time leader and won with a tonne in-hand. Only raised 6lb to OR85, the opposition will have a handful stopping him winning this.

At Newbury, the Class 2, 6f h’cap with 19-runners looks a nightmare to find the winner. LTO, ADDICTIVE DREAM was 2nd to Humidor, and that form looks rock solid. Humidor won that race at Goodwood in a time just 0.28 outside the 5-furlong track record, and ADDICTIVE DREAM was raised only 4lb to OR91. Having been beaten under a length, that looks fair as he could be a lot better than OR91 especially over this trip of 6-furlongs.

At Doncaster, in the 6-furlong Class 4 h’cap runs MUSIC FESTIVAL and I made a note of him when he won LTO. He ran a true race, kept on well and won in a fast time. For that, he was raised just 4lb to OR64. Interestingly, his dam won French Guineas in 2003, but after just one race for Mark Johnston under the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, he was sold for just £3,000. The trip and going will suit him, and he’s drawn 17 of 20 which is good. Even tho’ he’s 2lb out of the handicap, he can go close here and odds of 14/1 as I write (with Bet365) look more than fair.

In the final race on the card at Doncaster (the 8:40) runs one that I made a note of after he won LTO – MAVERIK. The worry is that his trainer Michael Dods is in an awful run of poor form and he also does not have a good strikerate at this Doncaster. Throw-in the decent rivals Bosambo and Falmouth Bay, and it does not look enticing.

Do I have a selection today? I am never entirely happy having wagers in races over 5 or 6-furlongs, so I cannot recommend wagers on FAVOURITE GIRL, ADDICTIVE DREAM or MUSIC FESTIVAL even tho’ I consider both FAVOURITE GIRL and ADDICTIVE DREAM hold winning chances, and MUSIC FESTIVAL is sure to be in the mix. There is no value in CANFORD CLIFFS, and PARLOUR GAMES is only 2/1 as I write and that is not value either (I was hoping for 3/1). MAVERIK has a difficult task, so 5/1 isn’t value either (I’d be looking for 7/1).

There are no selections today.

I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Thursday, 12 May 2011

It's the 'Dante' at York

Yesterday’s York meeting was a cracker, and we have the “Dante” today!
I had my only selections in the opening race and, rather than go eachway, I had 2 “win” selections – I needn’t have bothered as they were both well beaten with 3-furlongs still to run. The race was won (in impressive style) by Pekan Star who was the only runner of the day for Roger Varian, who took over Mick Jarvis’s yard about 6 weeks ago. Varian has had a great start to his “career” suggesting that perhaps he was a lot more involved than just being Mick Jarvis’s assistant trainer.
Of my selections, SIRVINO was beaten after less than a furlong when suffering a bad bump, and was squeezed for room against the rails forcing him to drop back to the rear of the field but, more importantly, losing his momentum. SIRVINO is a “prominent” runner and being at the back was not where he wanted to be, so completely ignore this run. BONFIRE KNIGHT (the other selection in the race) was well-placed in-behind the leaders, but when the pace quickened at the 4-furlong pole, he found nothing – absolute zip-all. It was an unexplainable effort.

The Group 2, Duke Of York Stakes went to Saeed bin Suroor’s only runner of the day – Delegator (following top trainers with only a single runner on the day would’ve paid-off yesterday). The going at York was considered by jockeys to be on the soft side of good, and that almost certainly explains why Regal Parade (who needs to get his toe in the ground) was 2nd to Delegator. I thought the going would be too quick for him, but clearly it wasn’t. When he won on “good” at Newbury last July (Group 3 Shadwell Stakes) that going was also described on the “soft side of good”. I’ve no idea what happened to Genki . He’s not as good when there is some juice in the ground and much prefers it on the quick side, but this was disappointing. He was subject to a drift on the exchanges from 8.0 to 11.5 in the minutes before the off, which suggests either all was not right or confidence was not high with connections. Another horse I was interested in, Inler, had some money come for him (16’s in to 11/1) and ran well for 5-furlongs with the leaders, but did not have the speed at this level.

Lastly, Antigua Sunrise was 5th having been denied a place by just a neck (I did write that 8/1 was not eachway value). Both the Mark Johnston horse’s faded over a furlong out and, on reflection, it seems that those drawn “high” and being covered-up early were at an advantage on the ground.

There is a meeting at Newmarket this evening, and the only race that catches my eye is the 7f, Class 3 h’cap at 8:00, with Mr MACATTACK at 25/1 (William Hill and others). In my opinion, he should not be those odds. He ran well at Chester, despite not having a great draw, and his previous 2 runs (2nd both times) have worked out well. He’s best on a straight 7-furlong (IMO) and I think he’ll handle this good-to-firm going (based on his Chester run). There is a meeting at Salisbury, but I’m giving it a miss.

Onto York, and I’m not even going to try and fathom the opening Class 3, 5f h’cap. If Falasteen does not mess-up the break and repeats his Epsom run he could go close, but I’m watching and not wagering on this race. The Middleton Stakes at 2:00 should go to Midday, but I am a big fan of Music Show and she tries a trip beyond a mile for the 1st time today – but will she stay? I think she will, but this is a tough race, and I cannot advise a wager.
In the Dante, I am rooting for Carlton House who has been backed from 25’s last October to 5/1 as I write for the Epsom Derby, but with Seville and World Domination in opposition this is another “watching” race.
The Hambleton H’cap looks a puzzle to foil Archimedes! My immediate thought was Pintura, but at just 6/1 and drawn 2 in this 18 runner race, that’s not good enough IMO. I was impressed with Wannabee King when winning LTO, and he’s only been raised 3lb for that win to OR98. He’s run off OR103 before and, from stall 17, if the blinkers work again he could run well. Note that he’s not run well in 16+ runner handicaps before.
Lastly, in the 3yo, Class 2, 5f Stakes race at 3:35, expect to see a star of the season in NIGHT CARNATION. She won her seasonal debut in some style and I cannot see her being beaten today. Connections of Margot Did are hoping a drop in trip from 6f to 5f will bring about an improvement, but that is “hope” and not expectancy. I’d play the “Exacta” in this – Night Carnation to beat Margot Did, and if you’re feeling like a gambler, put Lord Avon down for 3rd place.

There are no selections today.

I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen). Please take a look, and I will be making some new additions during the day.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Cracking meeting at York today

There were no selections recommended on the blog yesterday, altho’ I note that my “old friend” Abragante finally won a hunter chase at Sedgefield last night. Jockey, Paul Hanagan, is riding out of his skin at the moment and altho’ drawing a blank at Beverley in the afternoon, he scored a hat-trick from 5 rides at Southwell in the evening.
Trainer Barry Hills also had 3 winners (from just 6 runners) yesterday, following on from his 2 wins from 3 runners on Monday. He has 2 runners at York this afternoon.
At Yarmouth, the 5lb claimer Adam Beschizza had 2 wins from 5 rides (both for Julia Feilden) and this claimer is worth noting. He’s ridden 9 winners from just 49 rides this season.

Onto York, today’s only Flat race meeting.
Considering it is one of the top meetings of the season, I’m amazed that some of Newmarkets top stables are represented by so few runners today. Sir Michael Stoute send just Treble Jig (1:30), Saeed bin Suroor sends just Delegator (3:00), Richard Hannon, sends just Invincible Ridge (2:00); Luca Cumani sends just Danadana (4:45).
The meeting opens with a cracking race, a Class 2 h’cap over an extended 10-furlongs. Stoute won this last year, and so his only runner today Treble Jig must be respected, but there is some tough opposition. I believe that it is an advantage to be prominent at York in these sort of races with plenty of runners. With 20 runners a high draw is not advantageous, and so I have to oppose the market leaders Taqleed (drawn 20) and Pekan Star (17). The unexposed Cecil runner Diescentric really could be anything, but with just 2 runs to-date and off the track for 363 days, there will be easier tasks for this likely hold-up horse. Of the likely prominent runners, 2009 John Smiths Cup winner SIRVINO looks interesting. He will appreciate the “good” going and this 10f trip (I’m not sure he stays 12f) and his seasonal debut will have brought him on. Drawn 2 and with Graham Gibbons in the saddle, he’s better than a 20/1 chance. He was behind Resurge that day, and he meets him on 7lb better terms. There will be a fierce pace on in this race, and that might just set it up for a hold-up horse, and one that meets the bill is BONFIRE KNIGHT. The form of his latest win is working out well as the runner-up that day (Snow Dancer) won NTO, as did the 4th Abergavenny (has won 2 hurdle races). The 3rd and 5th have also held-up the form, and the 6th (Hydrant) was only beaten by the vastly improved Frontline Phantom last week, with the rest well behind. He’s 12/1 and that looks fair to me, as I’d have him a few points shorter.

The next race to take my interst on this card is the 6f Duke Of York Stakes (Group 2). This looks between Genki and Regal Parade. For a good analysis of this race, take a look at the Sprinterstogo blog (see adjacent link) which specialises in sprint racing. One that I like the look of in this is the 4yo INLER. This is the only horse trainer Brian Meehan has sent to York this week and this one-time Guineas “dark-horse” wasn’t far off on his seasonal debut in the Abernant behind Genki. He stays 6f well (has won over 7f) and showed plenty of speed LTO, despite looking like needing the run. As a result of that, he was pulled-out of the sales and retained by his owners. I reckon Regal Parade needs to get his toe in the ground and it may be a bit quick for him today. Delegator (Suroor’s only runner) is a top-class horse, but will he appreciate 6-furlongs? Will Dalghar improve for his move to Andrew Balding’s stable? The draw for Inler (14) is a problem, as the pace will come from those drawn from 2 to 7, but he may be able to run on to take a place, so 16/1 looks more than fair but I reckon I’ll be playing the “place-only” market with him.

I was very taken with the run of Antigua Sunrise LTO, who I felt should have won. He was unbalanced that day when his inexperienced rider (a 7lb claimer) brought him to challenge. That’s the price you pay sometimes with “claimers”, but jockeys have to start somewhere so it’s not a criticism. This is no easy task for Antigua Sunrise today in the 3:35, drawn 15 of 20; however,Paul Hanagan is in the saddle and I can see him finishing in the 1st-4 but odds of 8/1 are not eachway value. The race should be between the Mark Johnston pair of Becausewecan (drawn 3) and Lovers Causeway (drawn 2) – but which one?

I am going to have 2 selections in the opener instead of a single selection at eachway.
Selections:
York 1:30, SIRVINO, ½pt win @ 20/1 (Bet365 and William Hill, both best odds guaranteed)
York 1:30, BONFIRE KNIGHT, ½pt win @ 12/1 (Bet365 and William Hill, both best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

I have been updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen). Please take a look, and I will be making some new additions during the day as I review the recent results from todays Weekender.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Tuesday, 10 May 2011

Add Ree's Rascal to your notebook

Not a great day for the blog yesterday, with both the selections well beaten.

I took a chance with JARIDH, and was hoping that having Dettori riding was an indication that his problems as a 2yo were behind him – they weren’t. Given every chance, JARIDH did not seem to enjoy the experience and was beaten a long way out. With only 1 winner from 14 runners this season, Suroor has yet to hit form, but that winner was on Saturday and he has a great strikerate at York, so I would not rule out his runners this week at the Dante meeting.

Pretty much the same can be said about the other selection, FRANCISCAN. He had to work hard from stall 13 to take up a place in 3rd early on, but going around the tight right-hand bend at Windsor did not look like something he enjoyed. What was disappointing was that once they straightened-up he did not run on and he was beaten over 2-furlongs out. Back on a more galloping track we should see a different horse.
One to note from this race was the winner, REE’S RASCAL. He never stopped improving during a busy 2yo campaign, ending with 2 wins on the AW at Kempton. In the most recent of those wins, he beat Las Verglas Star (gave Ree’s Rascal 2lb) by a length over a mile; and that one won NTO and is now rated 14lb higher on OR79. With 5 of his 6 relatives having achieved higher RP ratings than him to date (half-bro Burning Incense ran well off OR94), the rating of OR67 for REE'S RASCAL for last night’s race was, in hindsight, fairly lenient. The way he won suggests that he will be able to win again.

Sometimes I wonder whether I should strive for “value”, as the only other horse discussed on the blog – SIDE GLANCE – won his race very easily after being well-off the pace with 3-furlongs to run. I should have recommended taking the 5/4 in the morning – but that’s easy to say when you know the result!

There are no selections today, as all 3 flat meetings look pretty dire and, with Yorks “”Dante” meeting starting tomorrow, I’m focusing on studying the form for that.

I will also be updating the “2011 – Flat Racing Notebook” page (look to the left-hand side of the screen). There are already some updates on that page concerning horses that have already run from the list, and I will be making some new additions during the day.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Monday, 9 May 2011

Suroor can strike at Windsor with his only runner

No blog yesterday (Sunday) and, for me and the blog, Saturday was a bit in-and-out. Overall, I am pleased with my ability to spot “well handicapped horses” from past results, the problem I have at the moment is reducing my morning shortlist to those with the most realistic chance.
Of the 2 horses I advised as selections on Saturday, both ran good races and both (in my opinion) looked unlucky to finish where they did. ZUIDER ZEE was well placed and coming with a run till being bumped hard by the eventual winner Rock A Doodle Doo from which he did not recover, but stayed on to be 4th. I reckon he could well have won from where he was without that bump, and I’ll be looking to recoup NTO. Similarly, CHIEFDOM PRINCE was staying-on well, having looked outpaced about 2½ furlongs out, but then was squeezed out by eventual winner Imperial Guest about 250 yards out from which point he wasn’t pushed. He will have learnt a lot from this race, and I will certainly be on him NTO off this great rating of OR87. The other horse written about on the blog (but not nominated as a selection) NASRI, ran a cracker. I did say he was worthy of a small eachway wager and at 20/1 he came up with the goods to be 3rd, having looked like staying-on to win when leading inside the furlong pole. Those who “back-to-lay” must surely have made a killing on him.

To recap, here are the selections nominated by the blog since returning from the Easter break:-
20th April, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 6/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
21st April, PRINCE DES MARAIS, ½pt win @ 6/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
21st April, DOUBLE DIZZY, ½pt win @ 11/1; unplaced …0.50pts lost
23rd April, FRENCH OPERA, ½pt win @ 100/30; WON …1.67pts profit
23rd April, CALYPSO MAGIC, ½pt win @ 13/2; lost …0.50pts lost
27th April, CRITICAL MOMENT, ½pt win @ 7/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
27th April, AKMAL, 1pt win @ 9/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
27th April, ANTIGUA SUNRISE, ½pt win @ 8/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
30th April, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1; 2nd …2.00pts lost
30th April, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1; 3rd …1.00pt lost
30th April, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2, unplaced …1.00pt lost
6th May, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts profit
7th May, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 10/1; unplaced …1.00pt lost
7th May, CHIEFDOM PRINCE, ½pt win @ 11/2; unplaced …0.50pts lost

Summary to date (Flat Season from Grand National day) = 2.83pts in loss

I am going to continue sticking to my “well-handicapped horses” for my selections.
There are Flat race meetings at Brighton, Redcar and Windsor tonight, plus Jump racing at Towcester, and and AW meeting at Wolverhampton. For any Jump selections, I suggest visiting the blog of Bechersbrook (Robert Gibbs - see adjacent link) who halted a barren spell with a cracking winner in the opener at Worcester yesterday which he was plugging 24-hours earlier. His selection Fade To Grey won with an SP of 14/1 but, if that wasn’t good enough, odds of 20/1 was available for most of the day prior to the race.

I don’t like Brighton as a track, so I’m giving that meeting a miss. The Redcar meeting looks dire, so another line thru’ that. So it’s Windsor.

At Windsor, Saeed bin Suroor has a great strikerate if you ignore his 2yo’s; 12 winners from 37 runners (32.4%) in past 4 seasons. He has just the one runner today, and it’s here at Windsor in the 6:10 - JARIDH. There has been a serious market move for the Hannon horse Puttingonthestyle in this, but none of the other 8 horses produced by his dam won beyond a mile, and this son of Desert Style needs to prove to me he stays 10-furlongs. Luca Cumani’s Praxios is a half-bro to Group 1 winner Presvis who did not run until he was a 4yo, so perhaps Praxios needs more time to develop. Gerald Butler (6 wins from 14 with 3yo’s at Windsor) has race-fit Little Black Book, and he looks on a fair rating at OR73. However, JARIDH at 12/1 looks worthy of support as he should stay this trip and he is bred to be a lot better than OR73 (half-bro Al Ghazal ran in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy, and won over 10-furlongs as a 2yo).

In the next on the card, SIDE GLANCE is top-rated and should prove hard to beat. A glance at the form book shows that Imperial Guest - who won on Saturday – paid him a compliment as they were both close-up in the Totesport Challenge Cup at Ascot last September (race won by Redford) and that form is working out very well indeed. But at 5/4, I cannot recommend a wager on SIDE GLANCE.

There is only one from my alert list running today and that is FRANCISCAN in the 7:10 over an extended mile for Luca Cumani. I noted after his win LTO that this long-striding colt (who won well with strong run from last to first) looks capable of staying 10f. He’s a half-bro to top horse Forte Dei Marmi who improved from OR73 to OR111 as 3yo. FRANCISCAN runs off OR70 today (up just 3lb for his win) and I will be very surprised if he does not follow-up. I was hoping to get 4/1, but at the moment he’s 100/30 (only with Ladbrokes) and that’s “fair” given the opposition. The 2nd-fav is Pivot Bridge who is a half-bro to 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa, but he was well held when btn LTO and the winner did not follow-up NTO.

Selection:
Windsor 6:10, JARIDH, ¼pt eachway @ 12/1 (available generally, best odds guaranteed)
Windsor 7:10, FRANCISCAN, 1pt win @ 100/30 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 7 May 2011

Only selection a winner y'day at 11/4

A great day for the blog yesterday, with GLEN’S DIAMOND coming home an impressive winner of the Dee Stakes at Chester. The only selection of the blog yesterday, we’ve been waiting patiently for a week to have a wager, and 2pts win on GLEN’S DIAMOND resulted in a 5.50pts profit on the day for this winner advised at odds of 11/4 (SP 2/1).

To recap, here are the selections nominated by the blog since returning from the Easter break:-
20th April, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt win @ 6/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
21st April, PRINCE DES MARAIS, ½pt win @ 6/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
21st April, DOUBLE DIZZY, ½pt win @ 11/1; unplaced …0.50pts lost
23rd April, FRENCH OPERA, ½pt win @ 100/30; WON …1.67pts profit
23rd April, CALYPSO MAGIC, ½pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …0.50pts lost
27th April, CRITICAL MOMENT, ½pt win @ 7/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
27th April, AKMAL, 1pt win @ 9/1; 2nd …1.00pt lost
27th April, ANTIGUA SUNRISE, ½pt win @ 8/1; 3rd …0.50pts lost
30th April, CAI SHEN, 2pts win @ 4/1; 2nd …2.00pts lost
30th April, KARAKA JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1; 3rd …1.00pt lost
30th April, CAPE VALE, 1pt win @ 11/2, unplaced …1.00pt lost
6th May, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts profit
Summary to date (Flat Season from Grand National day) = 1.33pts in loss

John Gosden’s Misrepresent was disappointing at Nottingham, but in the next race FRONTLINE PHANTOM won again as expected (see yesterday’s blog) but the odds were very short, the SP being 8/11. Don’t forget, I also advised on the blog not to ignore the runners sent over from Ireland by AP O’Brien for the Chester May meeting. Of the 5 he sent over, only 4 ran and they all won! If you read the blog there is a lot of information that points the way to winners, whether or not you follow up with a wager depends on your personal attitude to risk.

Onto today’s racing, and what a day in store. There are Flat race meetings in the afternoon at Ascot, Lingfield and Nottingham, plus another 2 at Thirsk and Warwick this evening; and a mixed meeting at Haydock.

At Ascot, the Victoria Cup (class 2 h’cap over 7f) is the highlight, and 29 runners go to post. It has rained overnight at Ascot, but the going is likely to remain at Good-to-Firm. From my alert list, in this race goes NASRI. There is no way I can nominate a blog selection in a 29-runner handicap, but NASRI fits the bill for this race. He comes into the race with the benefit of a run, is a 7-furlong specialist and will love the going – he also has a great draw coming out of stall 4. Hills go 9/1 the field for this race, it’s wide open, but if you’re having a wager go for a bookmaker offering 5 places such as Betfred or Paddy Power. NASRI is 20/1 with Betfred and is worthy of a small eachway wager if you want an interest.

Despite all the racing, John Gosden only sends out 3 runners today and his only representative at Ascot is the 4yo ZUIDER ZEE in the 4:35, who will only run if Gosden considers the going is suitable. I use this statement (which is printed on the racecard in the Racing Post) as a pointer to winners. It tells you that the horse will only run if the trainer thinks the horse has a better than average chance of winning. Remember what I wrote about Gosden 4yo handicappers on Thursday? ZUIDER ZEE is currently 10/1 with Boylesports and Betfred and, if he goes to post, he must be worth a wager. John Dunlop has his only runner of the day Berling in the same race, but he will need to recapture his early season form of last year to have a chance. Rock A Doodle Doo looked unlucky at Epsom LTO, but Dunlop must feel he has the measure of that one.

Next on the card is the 6f class 3 handicap for 4yo’s and older, and the Stoute runner CHIEFDOM PRINCE stands out in this. In my opinion, he is on a very lenient mark of OR87 and I reckon he showed LTO when annihilating his rivals in a fast time at Pontefract that he is a 100+ sprinter. His half-brother Rising Shadow won the “Cammidge” and was rated OR110. CHIEFDOM PRINCE was the joint-fav on his debut for the “Wood Ditton” last season and Stoute must think the horse is very useful if he’s kept him in training as a 4yo. CHIEFDOM PRINCE is 5/1 across the board. With 19 rivals in opposition and not the best of draws (3 of 20), even with plenty in hand on the weights I could only recommend a small wager at those odds. If he wins today (and, in my opinion, he should) he’ll probably go for a Group class sprint NTO, which will almost certainly be at Royal Ascot next month. The more I look at him tho', the more tempted I am to have a wager.

Selection:
Ascot 4:35, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Boylesports or Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Ascot 5:10, CHIEFDOM PRINCE, ½pt win @ 5/1 (Boylesports or Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad