Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Profit for the 2016-17 Jumps Season = £84.38

from wagers on 26 individual selections (4 winners, 6 placed)

Total Staked = £280.00


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This blog is based on finding winners - if you want to lose your money then read another blog.
advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Wednesday, 30 June 2010

Catterick pay-day for Given?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Nothing much to write about on Tuesday’s racing.

I posted the following comment on another blog (http://www.narrowing-the-field.com) and will share the advice here. After a break of 314 days, on 23-Feb, Emma Lavelle brought OUZBECK (rated OR153 as a novice chaser) out for a hurdle at Southwell. The horse ran well enough before lack of race fitness told. I noted at the time that the horse held an entry for the William Hill Trophy at the Festival, but the horse needed another hurdle run before returning to chasing. This he did at Cheltenham on 14-April when winning a class 2 h'cap off OR134. Remember, this horse was in 4th before falling at the final fence in the Paddy Power won by Imperial Commander off OR153. Another hurdle to keep his fitness up followed before, on Sunday, he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter off OR142. This 28f trip stretched his stamina to the limit, but I reckon he can make a bold bid for the Grand National next March. He's unlikely to be raised much for this win and, based on his novice chase form, he could be a OR155+ chaser at his peak. He hates soft going, so only consider him on good or good-to-firm. He looks ripe to capture another major autumn handicap chase.

Today’s Racing Selections
The week of ordinary racing continues with just a meeting at Catterick this afternoon on the flat and another on the flat this evening at Chepstow; and meetings over the jumps at Perth and Worcester, both this afternoon.

At Catterick, the 4:30 7f handicap looks wide-open, but Catterick’s 7f trip is one where I like to have a front-runner and the RP “fav” GLENRIDDING fits the bill. He’s out of stall 7 of 8 which is not the best but he does like to go from the front. He went off far too fast at Chester LTO, and before that was 4/1 fav at Thirsk but couldn’t get in front from a wide draw. What drew my attention was his run at Catterick over todays trip on 29th May when drawn 9 of 9 he led till headed on the line. The winner that day (Imperial Djay) is now rated 13lb higher having run 3 good races since. The horse in 3rd (Smalljohn) has won since and is now rated 3lb higher. The rest (including todays rivals Nufoudh and Rio Cobolo) were over 5-lengths behind. The downsides are that trainer James Given has not had a winner since Dandino at Royal Ascot (had 15 runners since then), nor has he a good strike-rate at Catterick (just 2 wins from 45 runners) but this is his only runner today. Current odds of 5/1 look very generous.

Selection: Catterick 4:30 GLENRIDDING, 1pt ew @ 5/1 (I'd have 2pts win, but trainer James Given's track record here is so poor there must be a reason why)

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tuesday, 29 June 2010

Awful Tuesday

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Nothing much to write about on Monday’s racing.

Today’s Racing Selections
I cannot get excited about the meeting at Brighton this afternoon. I don’t like Brighton – despite it being the closest “flat” track to my home. I’ve seen too many horses becoming unbalanced on the home stretch and not being able to run-on. The meeting at Hamilton this afternoon also looks dire. There are 4 x class 5 races and 3 x class 6 – awful. There is not much at either of the evening meetings at first glance, though if I come across anything later on I will post it up.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Monday, 28 June 2010

They think it's all over - it is now!

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s game, England v Germany
Review of Saturday’s racing selection and weekend racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s game, England v Germany
The knee-jerk reaction to England’s 4:1 defeat by Germany is to sack Fabio Capello as manager and blame the referee for not allowing Lampard’s goal. However, England’s problems run deep and were there for all to see in the abysmal performances in the 3 group games and, let’s be honest, it was a very weak group. At least we can lay claim to have been beaten by Germany! What would the headlines be now if it had been a 4:1 (or more) defeat by Ghana? My look on the situation is that the Premier League (sold to the public as a springboard for success on the international stage) has failed. If a player earning £140,000 a week (John Terry) cannot find the motivation to play in position for his country then what can? £200,000 a week, how about £300,000? The Premier League has failed the England team as there is no strength in depth in the England squad. Champions Chelsea supplied only 4 players; Ashley Cole, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Joe Cole. Premiership runners-up Man Utd supplied just 3 players Rooney, Ferdinand (injured, never played) and Carrick (never played). Third in the Premiership, Arsenal, supplied none. Just 7 of the 23-man squad from the top-3 clubs in the country – say’s it all really.
I’m sure some “spin” will be put on the result to suggest it’s the fault of someone else (and remember, this is essentially the same squad that failed under Steve McClaren), but it is the fault of the system and the players.
It is not worth progressing with players now aged 28-years and older. They have shown themselves to be not good enough and they are not going to get any better; so ditch them and bring in some young blood – from the Championship teams if necessary. We need players hungry for success, not fat having gorged themselves on £6 million a year salaries.
And the structure of the Premiership needs to change with less reliability on foreign players. The starting line-up of every Premiership game should include at least 3 English players (my god, 20 years ago we only allowed 3 foreign players in a team!). That should increase to 4 players for the 2011-12 season, and 5 players for 2012-13.
What about a return of the England ‘B’ team, and matches between England ‘A’ and England ‘B’? I’m sure a 23-man squad drawn from the Championship would have fared better than the current squad of Premiership prima-donna’s.
Finally, let’s stop thinking we are the best at football as we invented the game. We are not.

Review of Saturday’s racing selection and weekend racing
I was a bit disappointed with RED JAZZ as he did everything right and still couldn’t win. That does not take anything away from the race winner Premier Loco who had shown he was upto winning a G3 last summer with consistent performances at a mile here in the UK and in winning a couple of G2’s in Germany. His SP of 25/1 was an insult in hindsight with such strong form in the book.
In Ireland on Sunday, the Irish Derby was won by Cape Blanco and that was a huge form boost for the Derby winner Workforce. The prospect of a rematch between these two in the King George at Ascot in July is mouth-watering.

Today’s Racing Selections
Not much of a day for racing today. I can usually find one at Pontefract as the draw helps a lot here on this tight turning track; but not today. Sir Mark Prescott has a solitary runner out today at Pontefract in the 4:15 called Cheyenne Chant. It was a beaten fav LTO, so there may be some stable confidence behind it, and it has a couple of close relatives rated 15lb+ better so there is scope for improvement on what’s been seen to-date.
There not much at either of the evening meetings at first glance, though if I come across anything later on I will post it up.

Otherwise, no selections today.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Saturday, 26 June 2010

Time for Jazz?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines – working example

Review of yesterday’s blog
I’ve no idea what happened with Jesse James as the horse was held up straight from the stalls – tactics which are destined for failure at a tight turning track like Chester unless you have a horse of exceptional ability. A point lost.

Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from and having given readers of the blog a couple of losers in recent days the focus is on finding a good winner. I am quite taken with the result of the oddsline (see below) and ORDNANCE ROW is worth a punt. But the blog hit the crossbar at Royal Ascot with RED JAZZ and if he’s in similar form he will take a lot of beating at Newmarket this afternoon in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at 3:20. The 7-furlong trip is a specialist one, not requiring the stamina of a miler nor the outright speed of a sprinter, but a combination of both - and RED JAZZ has it. But for faltering for a few yards at Ascot, he’d have won the Jersey Stakes and he’s perhaps 6lb+ better than anything in this race and, what’s more, we know what sort of race he’ll run (from the front). The odds of 11/4 currently available look generous.

Selections:
Newmarket 3:20 RED JAZZ; 2pts win @ 11/4

Oddslines – working example
Yesterday, I wasn’t able to post a full blog as I was travelling the length of the country by car. I did say that I would provide an oddsline based on the formula that I had put forward. There is a race on Saturday at Windsor that fits the bill being a Listed race with just 6 runners, the 2:55.
Asset: unplaced LTO (0pts); last ran 91 days ago (0pts); OR107 (30pts); won at trip (+10pts); won on GF (+10pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 2nd-fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 61pts
Georgebernardshaw: 5th (0pts); 28-days (1pt); OR105 (28pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 6th fav @ 8/1 (0 – 8 = -8pts) Ttl = 19pts
Ordnance Row: 6th (0pts); 22-days (7pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); won on GF (10pts); won at track (10pts); BF: 2nd -fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 77pts
Aldovrandi: 3rd (12pts); 30-days (0pts); OR102 (25pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: Fav @ 11/4 (20 – 3 = 17pts) Ttl = 64pts
Party Doctor: 6th (0pts); 50-days (0pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 4th -fav @ 4/1 (0 – 3 = -4pts) Ttl = 35pts
The Rectifier: UP (0pts); 9-days (20pts); OR102 (25pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 5th -fav @ 13/2 (0 – 7 = -7pts) Ttl = 38pts
Total points = 294pts
Oddsline is:-
ASSET: 61/294 = 20.75% or odds of 4/1
GEORGEBERNADSHAW: 19/294 = 6.46% or odds of 14/1
ORDNANCE ROW: 77/294 = 26.19% or odds of 11/4
ALDOVRANDI: 64/294 = 21.77% or odds of 7/2
PARTY DOCTOR: 35/294 = 11.90% or odds of 8/1
THE RECTIFIER: 38/294 = 12.93% or odds of 7/1
The best value according to the oddsline is ORDNANCE ROW who is 7/2 in the betting forecast, but should be 11/4 according to the oddsline.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Friday, 25 June 2010

JESSE JAMES gunning for glory

No winners yesterday and this is a late blog posting as I've been travelling all day - and spent a few hours stuck on the M6.

There's not much to shout about this evening, but the meeting at Chester is always "readable" and sometimes throws-up a good priced winner which should really have gone off at much shorter odds. The 8:30 over 7f is such a race, and working from stall 1 outwards (as low drawn runners have such an advantage here) the first runner which can lead from the off and stay 7f (several of these are confirmed 5f & 6f sprinters - will they stay?) in stall 5 we have JESSE JAMES who usually leads and can stay 8f (never mind 7f).

Currently 16/1, he was rated OR87 after winning on good-to-firm at Windsor last season and then following-up with a good run at Goodwood. He clearly wants it fast, and he could run a big race at a big price.

Chester 8:30 JESSE JAMES: 0.50pts EW @ 16/1

Thursday, 24 June 2010

Double for Frankie?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines – Day 3
World Cup Specials - Beckenbauer to eat humble pie!

Review of yesterday’s blog
Both selections were beaten and 2pts lost. I was right about the Carlisle Bell and the winner probably having a low draw as Camerooney was drawn 2 and made all to win at 18/1 (was 8/1 in the betting forecast). Whereas MOUNT HADLEY never got into the race; as I wrote yesterday, he is a bit quirky; so he’ll either run well or very poorly. The other selection COMEDY ACT tried to make all in his race and led to inside the final furlong, but that was a tough ask in this, his first try at 12-furlongs.

Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from. This afternoon at Goodwood, John Gosden sends one of only two runners today (from 5 meetings and 32 races) SCORN in the 2:35. This one was 2nd to Tuesday’s blog selection Sea Of Heartbreak, it could take a lot of beating but won’t be much of a price, probably less than 2/1. At Hamilton this evening, Saeed Suroor sends his only runner of the day YAMAL for the 8:00 and Frankie Dettori rides. Dettori is in cracking form this week with another 2 winners from 3 rides yesterday, he has only 2 rides at Hamilton today; the other being COCKNEY in the 8:30. Both of these should win. Henry Cecil only has one runner today WHIRLY DANCER in the 8:10 at Leicester and he has a great strike rate here (10 from 33 with 3yo’s and older). There are a couple of good races at Newcastle, but they are very competitive. At Warwick, there is a good Listed race at 4:05 where Luca Cumani has entered his filly SETA. Cumani thinks a lot of this horse and had high hopes for it earlier this year.

Selections:
Hamilton 8:00 YAMAL & 8:30 COCKNEY : 1pt win double
Leicester 8:10 WHIRLY DANCER: 1pt win @ 9/2

Oddslines – day 3
Essentially, an oddsline is an assessment of the chance of a particular horse winning the race. That chance is assessed as a percentage and converted into odds. To arrive at the percentage, each runner in the race needs to be assessed and rated. All the ratings are then added and each individual horse’s rating in that race divided by the total to find the percentage of winning. That percentage then can be compared with the actual betting market odds to find the relative value. It sounds complicated, but it isn’t.
For recent form and fitness, you need to give a value for the latest run. If you consider that the worst is nil points for finishing unplaced, then you must value a win and then value 2nd, 3rd and 4th in between. For fitness, I reckon that a horse which hasn’t run in 28-days is not race-fit, whereas a horse that ran yesterday is super-fit (on the basis that if it had a problem it wouldn’t be running again the next day). If you award a point per day with 28pts for having run yesterday to nil points for having its last run 29-days ago; then for a race-win you need to award something comparative, say 30pts; and 2nd to 4th on a sliding scale.
For ratings, it’s a bit easier in that these are provided by the handicapper. Simply take the highest officially rated runner in the race and award that horse 30pts. Work your way down the handicap till the horse (if there is one) rated 30lbs below the top-rated horse gets nil points.
For preferences, I award 10pts each for a win at the trip, at the course, and on the going; total 30pts. So, a horse winning yesterday at the same course, at the same trip and on the same going would have 88pts, and if it had the highest official rating in the race it would have the maximum of 118pts.
If the final percentages are not clear-cut, then you can take other factors into account. The betting forecast in the Racing Post is a good benchmark. For instance yesterday, in the race I reviewed at Carlisle, 3 of the 1st-4 finishers were in the 1st-4 of the betting forecast (Major Phil @ 9/2, Flowing Cape & Sir George @ 13/2, and 8/1 Camerooney). But the draw (if it has an effect, best measured as a negative) can also be used.
If possible, I will oddsline a race tomorrow.

World Cup Specials – Beckenbauer to eat humble pie!
Well, the lads did it, but only just. Now it’s Germany next and the Chancellor can breathe a sigh of relief as the game is on Sunday afternoon. Will Beckenbauer be made to eat his words and served a slice of humble pie? Come on you band of brothers!

Thanks for reading the blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find this blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add this blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Wednesday, 23 June 2010

Come on you Band of Brothers!

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup Specials

Review of yesterday’s blog
Back in the groove! One selection, one winner – SEA OF HEARTBREAK. This was trainer Roger Charlton’s only runner of the day and he’s now had 3 winners from his last 5 runners over the past 5 days. When I posted up the blog at 8:36am the best price available was 100/30. I advised not to take less than 11/4, and you could still get that up to about 1:30pm. By the time the race started, SEA OF HEARTBREAK was 7/4, and the manner in which he won was described as “comfortably”. So, 2pts @ 100/30 is 6.66pts profit on the day.

Today’s Racing Selections
Wednesday brings afternoon flat meetings at Carlisle – where the feature is the £20,000 Carlisle Bell handicap - and Salisbury, and an evening meeting at Bath. The Carlisle Bell is one of the oldest horse-races going, dating back to its first running in 1599. This race is very competitive, being the richest class 4 handicap of the year. Cumani sends a runner – only his 2nd runner at the track in 5 years and his only runner today – and Kieran Fallon rides (this is his 1st ever visit to ride at Carlisle). There is only one course winner among the 17 entered for the race MOUNT HADLEY, and his trainer Geoff Butler is 3 wins from 7 runners here. He’s drawn 5, and although high numbers are favoured at Carlisle, the “Bell” has been won by those drawn low in recent years. The going will suit and MOUNT HADLEY has been running well of late, his best when 4th in a class 2 at Sandown with some decent handicappers behind him (Swift Chap and Mujood run in a class 2 at Salisbury today) on 24th April. He’s down 7lb to OR80 from that run having run over 7f on the AW (hates the AW) and a 2nd LTO over 9-fulrongs when staying-on but that extra furlong found him out. He’s a class 3 performer at his best and he should be too good for a lot of these, but he is a bit quirky; so he’ll either run well or very poorly. Each way only and current odds of 12/1 look fair value. I reckon he’ll be more like 8/1 at race time.

At Salisbury, there is a class 3 handicap over 12f which is hotly contested, but perhaps the horse with most potential is bottom weight COMEDY ACT from Sir Mark Prescott. He has his stable in top form and handled this horse’s half-brother Viva Pataca who has won 8 x Grade 1’s in Hong Kong and is a OR120+ horse. COMEDY ACT is running off OR75 today and has won his last 2 races, both times very comfortably. Sir Mark has 4 out today, but he sends only COMEDY ACT to Salisbury and he may be hard to beat here. Only 6 go to post and 5/1 good value for a horse with this potential.

The meeting at Bath does not appeal.

Selections:
Carlisle 3:30 MOUNT HADLEY, 0.5pts each-way @ 12/1
Salisbury 3:50 COMEDY ACT, 1pt win @ 5/1

Oddslines – day 2
I’ve been reading race-form study books for years. I started with a book written in 1981 called “Always Back Winners” by Stewart Simpson. I then read “Braddock's Complete Guide to Horse Race Selection and Betting” by Peter Braddock written in 1984. Both these books were written before ratings were made available in the Racing Post (or Sporting Life as it was then). In the late-1980’s, I came across Clive Holts book called “(Profitable Winners) Always Back Value Winners” at a jumble sale. Clive Holt was a tipster in the 1970’s & 80’s who sold his racing selections over the phone. He sold this book as his method for selection, but (as you might expect) it omitted detail in vital areas. What it did do though, was introduce me to the concept of oddslines by highlighting that most horses that win will do so again; and that most races (over 50%) are won by one of the 1st-3 in the betting market.
By pooling the knowledge from these books along with some statistical racing research prepared by members of a forum called “Smartsig” (don’t ask me what it means, I don’t know), I focused on what I consider are the main areas that determine which horse is most likely to win a race based on factors over which I have no personal control or influence. When you allow personal choice to influence judgement, then you lose clarity of thought.
The areas that I consider most determine a race winner are:-
Recent form and fitness;
Ratings (handicap/betting);
Preferences (going/trip).
Recent form is measured by whether a horse has won or been placed in the 1st-4 in its most recent race. Fitness is measured by the number of days since its most recent race; the more recent a race then the fitter the horse – and if its won in the last 7-days that is a big plus.
Ratings revolves around official handicap ratings and the undeniable fact that the fastest horses win the most races and those are the horses with the highest official ratings. The betting forecast (not the market) is taken into consideration as a “deciding” factor.
Preferences for going and the trip (distance over which the race is to be run) are measured in previous successes; with a course & distance winner being a big plus. How these factors are turned into an oddsline will be in tomorrow’s blog.

World Cup Specials – all or nothing!
Will the nightmare turn into a fiasco? This is it, the last chance saloon. I’d rather the England team went down 2:3 than give us another 0:0 draw. Come on you band of brothers!

Thanks for reading the blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find this blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tuesday, 22 June 2010

Frankie - the punters darling!

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines
World Cup Specials - heads?

Review of yesterday’s blog
As reported on the blog, Frankie Dettori went into Monday with 6 rides including 3 at the Windsor evening meeting. I expected multiple winners, but you can never really tell which ones are going to go in, and from those 6 he rode 3 winners. At Wolverhampton he won on John Gosden’s POINT OUT at odds of 1/2; and at Windsor he won on DANCE EAST at odds of 15/8 (winning distance a head) and on RULE MAKER at 5/2 (opened at 7/2). He very nearly had 4 winners on the day as HOKOUMAH at odds of 5/6 was beaten only a neck into 2nd. All 6 of his rides in 15 x £10 doubles would have recouped over £195 (including returned stake money on winning doubles) resulting in a profit of over £45. Had HOKOUMAH won then Frankie really would have been the punters darling!

Today’s Racing Selections
Another very ordinary day’s racing for Tuesday. Beverley looks a meeting to avoid. The only race that may offer some hope is the 3:25 but this class 4 handicap could go to the horse that wants to run on the day and they are an in-and-out bunch.
With all races being either class 5 or 6, give Brighton a wide berth.
Newbury in the evening has by far the best racing of the day, the pick of the meeting being the class 4 fillies handicap at 8:30. For me, SEA OF HEARTBREAK looks to hold a tremendous chance. She can take this race at a decent price as there are a few Newmarket raiders in Namaskar (Gosden), Heavenly Dawn (Stoute), and Akinoshirabe (Cumani) who will ensure a good betting market. Odds of 9/2 were available last night, but right now the best is 100/30. For me, SEA OF HEARTBREAK looks an 11/4 chance and I would not want to take less than that.

Selection: SEA OF HEARTBREAK Newbury 8:30 2pts win

Oddslines
One of the things that I regularly do to keep in touch with racing form is buy the Weekender every Wednesday. This paper is probably the best value on the market for the racing fan who likes to have a wager. There are a couple of good writers in the Weekender and the two I read are (in order of preference) Nick Mordin and Dick Hunter. Each has their own speciality; with Hunter its race-form analysis, and with Mordin its selection systems. It is Mordin who usually generates some “in-depth” thought and his subject matter last Wednesday had me thinking, mainly on why he’s ignored it before! It was oddslines and why any punter who wants to take his wagers seriously should form an opinion of each race they intend to wager in before they place a bet in the form of an oddsline.
Most people know how to assess which horse in a race has the best chance of winning, but applying odds to its chances is more difficult. Converting opinion to a percentage of opportunity is not a process taken deliberately by 99.9% of people who bet on racing. What surprised me was Nick Mordin saying that he had only taken up preparing his own oddslines about a year ago. Before that he would do what most people do and that is form an opinion about the relative chance of his own selection. The mistake that everyone makes (and I include myself) when doing that is that you naturally form your opinion based on the odds of the favourite. If the fav is 5/2 and your selection is 4th in the market at 7/1, then you automatically think that it’s good value and strike a bet. Only by preparing an oddsline can you assess the relative chances of each horse in relation to its actual odds. Mordin says he handicaps himself in his preparation of oddslines by considering the chances of runners in a particular race over a period of days. Unless you are prepared to be very selective in the races you bet on, and bet in large amounts to make the whole effort worthwhile (I think that you should value form-study at an hourly rate, 4 hours study @ £20 an hour = £80 stake on the selection), then the process needs to be streamlined. Forming oddslines for races you intend to bet on will improve the way you assess whether or not to bet. What I will do over the next few days is show how oddslines can be prepared and (hopefully) a quicker way to do it and obtain results than spending days reading the formbook for a particular race.

World Cup Specials – heads?
The World Cup is turning into a complete nightmare for the England players as well as punters now, with John Terry being put firmly in his place by Fabio Capello. The English cannot be beaten when it comes to playground mentality. It’s all to play for still, and yet could come down to the toss of a coin as to whether England or the USA go through to the play-off section and the last-16.

Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Monday, 21 June 2010

Does Frankie like Monday's?

In today’s blog:
What a week at Royal Ascot
Today’s Racing Selections
Racehorse performance of the week
World Cup Specials

What a week at Royal Ascot!
On Friday I went to Royal Ascot with a group of friends with the intention of having good time and winning a bit of money on the races. The first part of the plan went well. Ascot is a cracking course and the facilities are first rate. Even the entrance fee I thought was fairly reasonable at £64 for a grandstand ticket. We managed to secure a table on the lawns, and from there we could easily access the paddock and the betting ring. More importantly, we could quickly get to the bar and never once did I have to encounter a “scrum” like at Cheltenham. There, the champagne was also reasonable at £44 a bottle (we bought a couple). As for the food, it was tremendous - £14.50 for a seafood platter that would have been value for money in any decent restaurant. The only fault of the day was of my own making in not finding a winner. I will definitely be going back to Royal Ascot.

Today’s Racing Selections
It looks a very ordinary Monday on the racing scene as everyone gets back to normal again. What could be profitable today is to follow Frankie Dettori. He starts off at Wolverhampton - where he has ridden 6 winners from just 13 rides in the past 5 seasons – in the 2:30 on Saeed Suroor’s only runner today HOKOUMAH. He then rides John Gosden’s only runner today in the 3:00 POINT OUT before finishing at Wolverhampton on IL FORNO with only his 2nd ever ride for Ian Williams.
Then he’s off to Windsor for the evening meeting, where at 6:40 he’s on Michael Bell’s only runner today SHESELLS SEASHELLS. He then rides both of Jeremy Noseda’s runners; in the 8:10 DANCE EAST and in the 8:40 RULE MAKER. Frankie doesn’t usually “work” on a Monday, and what’s more he very rarely rides at 2 meetings on the same day. Is this going to be a multiple winner day?

No single racing selection today, but I expect Frankie Dettori to win with at least 2 of his 6 rides today, maybe more.

Racehorse performance of the week
The success of Rite Of Passage in the Ascot Gold Cup was more a training feat than horse performance and rightly showed up the lack of strength in the staying division of flat racing. When a horse that is not within 20lbs of the best of the top hurdlers can win the Ascot Gold Cup, then the right of that race to be classed as a Group 1 has to be questioned. So in my opinion, the racehorse performance of the week at Royal Ascot was on Saturday in the Wokingham when after a break of 600 days LADDIES POKER TWO broke the course record set just 40 minutes earlier in the Group 1 Golden Jubilee to win with an absolutely devastating performance. When a horse shows such speed to win a top sprint race it can never again be under-estimated.

World Cup Specials
The World Cup is turning into a complete nightmare for punters with Germany being beaten by Serbia at the weekend, and Italy drawing with New Zealand. The only good thing for me is that I recommended ARGENTINA on the 8th June as the likely winners and at that time they were best-priced at 8/1; they are now 9/2. Given that so many teams are playing so poorly, the Netherlands at 9/1 (Hills) look good value too.

Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Friday, 18 June 2010

Royal Ascot - Day 4

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
World Cup Specials


Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
For Friday, the 4th day of Royal Ascot, there are a couple of interesting opportunities in the Group 2 King Edward VII stakes over 12f and the Group 1 Coronation Stakes over a mile.

The 12f King Edward VII Stakes revolves around Bullet Train. His poor run at Epsom in the Derby was put down to not handling the track, but he handled Lingfield well enough. My opinion is the horse needs an easy-lead. That, and he plain doesn’t stay 12f in top company. He is the 1st foal of his dam who was a 6f sprinter, after all. Add that the form of his Newbury maiden race has taken a hammering, and he has it all to prove. My handle on the Epsom Derby form is that the O’Brien horse At First Sight has been over-rated for his 2nd placing in that race. He was 100/1 for that and went into the Derby rated OR104; his run that day suggested he took advantage of tactical errors of the other jockey’s. Buzzword was sired by Pivotal, so the good-to-firm going won’t suit him. That leaves us with the only improving colt in the race who is unbeaten in 3 starts this season, GREEN MOON. He’s won on good-to-firm going and looks well capable of staying 12f.

The 8f Coronation Stakes usually goes to a top-class filly. This race hangs on the Irish Guineas form as 5 who ran there meet again in this. Of the remainder, Puff and Lady Of The Desert have the most potential, tho’ Puff may struggle to stay 8f. Lady Of The Desert was considered unlucky in running last-time-out but even so needs to find some improvement. As such, I’m drawn to the Irish Guineas form and in particular those involved in the blanket finish with under half-a-length covering the 1st-5 home. Lily Langtry was finishing well, but hit a flat spot 2f-out and ended-up having the clearest run to the line. Music Show was gradually closing but had no turn-of-foot and looks a horse that wants 10f now (as her relatives did). Its ANNA SALAI that looks to have the most potential. She was sent for home at the 3f marker and only just lost out on the line. Prior to that she showed a terrific turn-of-foot to beat subsequent French Oaks 2nd Rosanara over 2-lengths. With Dettori in the saddle that must be an “advantage” over Ajtebi and further reason to expect improvement.

Royal Ascot 3:05 GREEN MOON 2pts win @ 11/4
Royal Ascot 3:50 ANNA SALAI 1pt EW @ 6/1

Review of yesterday’s blog
Not a great day for the blog yesterday.
Principal Role plainly did not stay the 12f trip. And, as for Ask, in my opinion he was done for by the pace which, altho’ looking to be slow for the first mile and more actually resulted in a record time for the Gold Cup being run.

World Cup Specials
With defeats for Nigeria by Greece and France by Mexico, I’m calling it a day on the World Cup Specials for the weekend.

Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Royal Ascot - Day 4

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
World Cup Specials


Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
For Friday, the 4th day of Royal Ascot, there are a couple of interesting opportunities in the Group 2 King Edward VII stakes over 12f and the Group 1 Coronation Stakes over a mile.

The 12f King Edward VII Stakes revolves around Bullet Train. His poor run at Epsom in the Derby was put down to not handling the track, but he handled Lingfield well enough. My opinion is the horse needs an easy-lead. That, and he plain doesn’t stay 12f in top company. He is the 1st foal of his dam who was a 6f sprinter, after all. Add that the form of his Newbury maiden race has taken a hammering, and he has it all to prove. My handle on the Epsom Derby form is that the O’Brien horse At First Sight has been over-rated for his 2nd placing in that race. He was 100/1 for that and went into the Derby rated OR104; his run that day suggested he took advantage of tactical errors of the other jockey’s. Buzzword was sired by Pivotal, so the good-to-firm going won’t suit him. That leaves us with the only improving colt in the race who is unbeaten in 3 starts this season, GREEN MOON. He’s won on good-to-firm going and looks well capable of staying 12f.

The 8f Coronation Stakes usually goes to a top-class filly. This race hangs on the Irish Guineas form as 5 who ran there meet again in this. Of the remainder, Puff and Lady Of The Desert have the most potential, tho’ Puff may struggle to stay 8f. Lady Of The Desert was considered unlucky in running last-time-out but even so needs to find some improvement. As such, I’m drawn to the Irish Guineas form and in particular those involved in the blanket finish with under half-a-length covering the 1st-5 home. Lily Langtry was finishing well, but hit a flat spot 2f-out and ended-up having the clearest run to the line. Music Show was gradually closing but had no turn-of-foot and looks a horse that wants 10f now (as her relatives did). Its ANNA SALAI that looks to have the most potential. She was sent for home at the 3f marker and only just lost out on the line. Prior to that she showed a terrific turn-of-foot to beat subsequent French Oaks 2nd Rosanara over 2-lengths. With Dettori in the saddle that must be an “advantage” over Ajtebi and further reason to expect improvement.

Royal Ascot 3:05 GREEN MOON 2pts win @ 11/4
Royal Ascot 3:50 ANNA SALAI 1pt EW @ 6/1

Review of yesterday’s blog
Not a great day for the blog yesterday.
Principal Role plainly did not stay the 12f trip. And, as for Ask, in my opinion he was done for by the pace which, altho’ looking to be slow for the first mile and more actually resulted in a record time for the Gold Cup being run.

World Cup Specials
With defeats for Nigeria by Greece and France by Mexico, I’m calling it a day on the World Cup Specials for the weekend.

Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday, 17 June 2010

Royal Ascot - Day 3

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
World Cup Specials

Review of yesterday’s blog
Oh so close for the first selection RED JAZZ who led from the off and had them all off the bridle at the furlong pole. He was caught 100 yards out, but fought back to go down by just a head to the winner who set a new track record time. Then our second selection TWICE OVER came with a strong, late run to nearly catch the eventual winner, but just failed by half-a-length. So, from the 4pts staked we recovered a 3pt profit on the day but, for want of a bit of luck, we nearly had a 36pt profit.

Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
The third day at Royal Ascot and the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes looks ripe for Henry Cecil to take with his filly PRINCIPAL ROLE. She should appreciate the 12f trip of this race, whereas likely fav Gertrude Bell clearly did not stay the Oaks trip. The danger could be Hannon’s Middle Club, but Hannon has such an awful record at Royal Ascot. That and it’s hard to pin down the value of her recent Italian form. PRINCIPAL ROLE @ 5/1 looks fair value

In the Gold Cup, ASK is the horse that holds the key. Almost certainly the best of these where it run over 12f, this race is unlikely to be run at a pace capable of stretching his stamina as so many in the race are tackling this trip for the first time. He should be able to track the leaders and make his move at the 2f pole where his dominant ability – he’s at least 4lb clear on official ratings - will come into play. The 4yo’s Age Of Aquarius and Manifest are nowhere near the OR121 rating of ASK over 12f and Kite Wood will tee this race up very nicely in making the pace from the front for ASK. Odds of 6/1 available on Wed evening have gone this morning but, even so, the 11/2 looks very generous for a horse of his class with the opposition so ordinary.

Royal Ascot 2:30 PRINCIPAL ROLE – 0.50pt EW @ 5/1 (Hills/Bet365)
Royal Ascot 3:40 ASK – 1pt EW @ 11/2 (Hills/Bet365)
Plus 0.50pt EW double
Total of 4pts staked

World Cup Specials
Yesterday, the World Cup Bank ended up £4.17, at a balance of £79.08 from a start of £100.00 (£10.00 staked per match). Chile confirmed their superiority with a solid win against Honduras (+£4.17). But what a shocker from Spain! Despite having superiority for most of the game, Spain did not put the ball in the Swiss net. When will teams realise that to win you have to score? Games are not won but how much your team is worth on the transfer market. This awful result cost the blog World Cup Bank (-£10.00). Uruguay then easily brushed aside South Africa (+£10.00).

Day 7 starts with Argentina v South Korea and this looks interesting. What I’ve noticed is that the match odds from before the tournament started have not changed much to reflect results of games already played. South Korea are 8/1 for this despite beating Greece comfortably 2:0. I think this could end-up a draw. The wager is on the draw with £5.00 @ 7/2 Hills, and £5.00 on Argentina to win @ 1/2 with Corals.

Next, its Greece v Nigeria; where do we start? The Greeks find scoring difficult and concede goals even from weak teams, ie North Korea (2); Senegal (1); Luxembourg (1); Moldova (1). At least, the Nigerian’s look like they can score goals, so we have to go for a Nigeria win. The wager is Nigeria to win with £8.50 @ 1/1 (evens) with Bet365, and £1.50 on the draw @ 12/5 available generally.

Finally, we have France v Mexico. France will know they have to win this game and odds of 11/8 look generous, especially as Mexico have struggled against European teams. The wager is France to win with £8.00 @ 11/8 with Corals, and £2.00 on the draw @ 23/10 with Ladbrokes.

Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Wednesday, 16 June 2010

Royal Ascot - Day 2

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
World Cup Specials

Review of yesterday’s blog
CANFORD CLIFFS win yesterday was a great result for the blog. I admit, I did advise that the odds of 9/4 available in the morning were not attractive, and suggested holding-off unless you could get 3/1. On the exchanges, 4.20 was offered just before the off (Betfair SP was 3.94). But look at this from my blog about CANFORD CLIFFS on 14th May… “I hope the horse goes for the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot rather than the Golden Jubilee sprint later in the meeting. He has the potential beating of both those that finished in front of him in the Guineas with stamina proven and speed to burn, and there’s nothing else in the race entries that comes close on known form.”

KINGSGATE NATIVE was never really travelling, but still ran well enough to suggest if he turns out on Saturday for the Golden Jubilee over 6f – a race he won 2 seasons ago - he will be hard to beat.
SLEEPY HOLLOW was always thereabouts in his race, but the winner (Junior) took the race apart and was never going to be caught.

Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
The second day at Royal Ascot, and it’s the opening race where the most likely opportunity falls. I’m going to leave the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup, the 18-runner Queen Mary Stakes, and the 17-runner Sandringham Handicap well alone, and the Group 2 Windsor Forest looks very competitive.

Official ratings are always a great place to start and RED JAZZ comes out on top with an OR113. His 8th in the Guineas behind Makfi is the best formline in the race, and that was over a furlong too far for him. When beaten by Field Of Dream last time out the going was on the soft side of good and that found him out, on today’s quicker ground he’ll reverse that form. Free Judgement is another wanting a mile rather than today’s 7f, as does Meezan; and Shakesperian beat very little at Epsom and now has a 3lb penalty for that win. The fear is that the front-running RED JAZZ will set the race up for a strong finisher with pace but, as much as I look, I can’t find one.

I also like the Group 1 Prince Of Wales Stakes. This race has only fallen to a runner at odds longer than 5/1 just once in the past 10 years (and that was super-filly Ouija Board), so it pays to concentrate on the market leaders. Current 3/1 fav Byword has yet to prove he can stay today’s 10f trip at this level. The 3rd fav @ 6/1 Mawatheeq, looks like he wants 12f rather than 10f and this will be a stiff task anyway seeing as he hasn’t run since finishing 2nd in the Champion Stakes last October when beaten by TWICE OVER, today’s 2nd-fav @ 5/1. TWICE OVER needs “good” going and 10f. It was Good-to-Firm last year when, in this race, he was beaten just a length into 4th having led a 100 yards from the line. He’ll get the good pace he needs too. He’s the only “proper” Group 1 horse in the race, his win in the Champion Stakes being considered a “decent renewal, run at a very strong pace.” There are a couple of dark-horses such as Debussy and Allybar, but the step-up from Group 3 to Group 1 is a big one.

Royal Ascot 2:30 RED JAZZ – 0.75pt EW @ 15/2 (Bet365/Hills)
Royal Ascot 3:50 TWICE OVER – 0.75pt EW @ 5/1 (available generally)
Plus 0.50pt EW double
Total of 4pts staked

World Cup Specials
Yesterday, the World Cup Bank ended down £5.27, at a balance of £74.91 from a start of £100.00 (£10.00 staked per match). The late goal by New Zealand lost the blog a potential profit and resulted in a loss (-£5.50), and the draw between Ivory Coast and Portugal provided just a tiny profit (£0.23). We did well to avoid a correct-score bet on the Brazil game as there’s no-way I’d have gone for 2:1 and North Korea actually scoring a goal.

Day 6 starts with Chile v Honduras and this should be easy for Chile who have good experience playing “weak” teams having recently beaten Israel, Northern Ireland, Zambia and Trinidad without conceding a goal. The wager is Chile to win with £8.50 @ 4/6, and £1.50 on the draw @ 13/5 with Bet365.

The Spain v Switzerland game looks a straightforward win for Spain. The wager is Spain to win with £9.00 @ 2/7, and £1.00 “saver” on the draw @ 9/2 with either Bet365 or Betfred.

Then we have the first of the 2nd-round of games with South Africa v Uruguay. South Africa should not have won a point last Friday against Mexico. Uruguay should be well capable of winning this game. The wager is Uruguay to win with £8.00 @ 6/4 (this looks huge) with Bet365, and £2.00 on the draw @ 23/10 with the Tote.

Many thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tuesday, 15 June 2010

Royal Ascot - Day 1

In today’s blog:
Today’s Selections from Royal Ascot
World Cup Specials
Review of yesterday’s blog

Today’s Racing Selections from Royal Ascot
The first day at Royal Ascot and what an opening race. All Europe’s premier older milers together. It is very hard to oppose Goldikova at the weights, and odds of 7/4 look mighty tempting. But trainer Freddie Head has not had a winner at Royal Ascot (and he’s run a few here over the years) and he’s not had a winner in France in the past 14-days either. Paco Boy will need to run the race of his life to win and 3/1 isn’t enticing enough. All O’Brien’s horses have needed a run, so I cannot have Rip Van Winkle. This race is ripe for an upset and for a relatively unexposed to take the race at long odds. There are a couple of possibilities; Zacinto and Dalghar. This is the first of a handful of Group 1 entries this summer for Zacinto, and at 16/1 he looks too long. Dalghar at 14/1 is a half-brother to ‘Arc’ winner Dalakhani and ‘Eclipse & King George’ winner Daylami and having missed almost his entire 3yo season, this could be his year. Overall, a race to watch and savour tho’ I would not put you off having a small ew wager on Zacinto and Dalghar.

The Group 1 King Stand Stakes looks a match between KINGSGATE NATIVE and Australian challenger Nicconi. Never beaten when running less than 6-furlongs, Nicconi will be finishing like a train, but will KINGSGATE NATIVE already have flown? This will be a mighty race, and at 7/2 I’m on KINGSGATE NATIVE who reappeared better than ever to win the Temple Stakes LTO, whereas Nicconi does not look quite as good as previous Australian challengers.

All eyes on another match in the St James Palace Stakes this time between CANFORD CLIFFS and his conqueror in the Guineas, Makfi. The explosive turn-of-foot CANFORD CLIFFS has should see him make a serious challenge off the strong gallop to be set by his stablemate Dick Turpin. And DT is no back-number either and can take a place at least. My thoughts after the Guineas were that CANFORD CLIFFS would win a re-match between the 1st-3 in the Guineas and I’ve seen nothing since to alter that view and Richard Hughes won’t give Makfi a 3-length start this time. However, the current odds of 9/4 are too short for me as Guineas winner Makfi should be the fav on the formbook, so it’s another “no bet” situation (unless you can get 3/1+).

The only other interest is in the Ascot Stakes over 2m 4f. This generally goes to an unexposed hurdler and one horse jumps out at me – SLEEPY HOLLOW. Racing fans will best know this horse for leading the Neptune Hurdle at the Festival before running-out at the 2nd last flight. However, I did say on this blog last week to look out for a Hughie Morrison runner and this could be the one. Half-brother Ronaldsay was rated OR100+ and SLEEPY HOLLOW is totally unexposed on the flat running off OR85, his last flat run being on unsuitably soft going. Today’s trip and going should bring about an improvement on that run and he should be good enough to be involved in the finish. He’s at 18/1 with Skybet and 16’s generally and looks a good eachway wager.

Royal Ascot 3:05 KINGSGATE NATIVE – 2pts win @ 7/2 (generally available)
Royal Ascot 5:00 SLEEPY HOLLOW – 1pts EW @ 18/1 (Skybet)

World Cup Specials
Day 4 of the World Cup brought us a great result with Netherlands winning (+£3.80) but Japan beating Cameroon was a wipe-out (-£10.00). Paraguay then took a 1st-half lead against Italy but it was joy short-lived and the game ended a 1:1 draw (+£0.08). Overall, the World Cup Bank ended down £6.13 at a balance of £80.18. Tomorrow could produce the turnaround we need.

Day 5 starts with New Zealand v Slovakia and, let’s be honest, New Zealand shouldn’t be here! Slovakia “should” win comfortably, with NZ having been beaten by Slovenia, Australia and Mexico recently. The wager is Slovakia to win with £9.00 @ 1/2, and £1.00 on the draw @ 3/1 with Chandlers or Betfred.

Ivory Coast v Portugal could be an upset as Portugal are not the side they once were, even with Ronaldo. They qualified by scoring 8 goals against Malta whereas Sweden only scored 5. Ivory Coast will be no pushover having beaten Japan 2:0 and Ghana 3:1 recently. The wager is Ivory Coast to win with £6.90 @ 13/5, and £3.10 on the draw @ 23/10 with Stan James.

Brazil v North Korea is the mis-match of the tournament. Brazil will win but hopefully the scoreline will not be embarrassing. This is not worth a bet on the actual match result, and a correct score bet is not an option as it could be any score between 1:0 and 7:0 to Brazil, or any in-between.

Review of yesterday’s blog
Very disappointing performance from the racing selections. Neither BESTY nor ROCK RELIEF ran to warrant the market support and THEREAFTER drifted in the market from 5’s to 15/2 and ran a disappointing race. The defeat of Cameroon by Japan, and Italy grabbing an equaliser, capped a bad day at the office.

Many thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Monday, 14 June 2010

Summer Of Sport

In today’s blog:
Summer Of Sport
World Cup Specials
Today’s Selections
Blog of the Week

Summer Of Sport
This weekend has seen the commencement of a terrific summer of sport with the start of the World Cup. Tomorrow (15th June) is the first day of the Royal Ascot festival of flat racing in the UK. Thursday 17th June see’s the start of the US Open Golf Championship. Monday 21st June see’s the start of Wimbledon Tennis fortnight. Then on the 15th July we have the start of “The Open”, the premier golfing championship, this year at the home of golf, St Andrews. For the best of advice to make those wagers winners, make Wayward Lad your first port of call every day.

World Cup Specials
Day 3 of the World Cup brought us 2 winning wagers from 3 with Slovenia (+£5.19) and Germany (+£3.36) both winning, but Serbia’s defeat by Ghana was a wipe-out (-£10.00). Overall, the World Cup Bank ended down £1.76 at a balance of £86.30.

Netherlands v Denmark could be a cracker! Both teams topped their qualifying groups, Netherlands conceding just 2 goals in 8 games, Denmark only 5 goals in 10 games. However, Netherlands have been outstanding since then, recently beating USA 2:1, Mexico 2:1, Ghana 4:1, and thrashing Hungary 6:1. It has to be Netherlands with £9.00 @ 8/15 with Hills and £1.00 on the draw @ 100/30 with Ladbrokes.

Japan v Cameroon looks tricky. Japan have lost their last 4 games, scoring just once (against England!). Cameroon also have also not won in their last 4 games, but they have scored 5 goals including putting 3 past Serbia (beaten by Ghana yesterday). For me its Cameroon with £7.00 @ 23/20 and £3.00 on the draw @ 23/10, both with Betfred.

Italy v Paraguay and this could be the big upset! Italy are notorious slow starters in the World Cup and if they are to be beaten, it will be today. Paraguay finished 3rd on the CONMEBOL beating Brazil and Argentina en-route. They also recently drew 0:0 with Netherlands. For me, its Paraguay for the win with £6.90 @ 100/30 with Boylesports, and £3.20 on the draw @ 9/4 with Paddy Power.

Today’s Selections
Only a meeting at Carlisle this afternoon on the flat and last week’s selection BESTY can recoup losses today over this stiff 5f in the 4:15. This horse is bang in-form and is Brian Smart’s only runner today (he’s 10 wins from 24 runners here), take the 11/4 on offer as BESTY will surely start at less than 2/1.

If Sir Mark Prescott sends one to Carlisle, take note – he’s had 3 winners from just 5 runners here in past 5 seasons. Today ROCK RELIEF makes the 275 mile journey to the track for the 4:45 and current odds of 11/4 are “fair” but I would not want to take any shorter.

At Warwick this evening there is the Warwickshire Oaks (Listed) at 7:55 which looks hotly contested and the Cumani/Fallon pairing on BECQU ADOREE looks interesting, but sometimes these Italian imports to the Cumani stable don’t transfer well.

Windsor on a Monday evening, sailing to the course along the Thames on a sunny, summer night, what could be better? Finding a winner would help the evening flow. Roger Charlton’s only entry on Saturday (Avertor) was a non-runner having been this blog’s selection . HE sends his only runner today for the 8:40 here, THEREAFTER. A half-sister to 3 horses rated 30lb higher than her rating today of OR67, and with the form of her last run working out well (the runner-up is now rated 13lb higher) she could really be thrown-in here. Currently 5/1, she has to be an each-way wager.

To surmise:
Carlisle 4:15 BESTY – 2pts win @ 11/4
Carlisle 4:45 ROCK RELIEF – 2pts win @ 11/4
Windsor 8:40 THEREAFTER – 1pt each-way @ 5/1

Blog Of The Week
Having given me another good winner on the sprints last week, blog of the week is Sprinterstogo run by The Laird (http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com). An informative blog that focuses only on sprint races in the UK and Ireland, tipster “The Laird” has his finger on the pulse of this betting medium.

Many thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourite. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Sunday, 13 June 2010

Sunday Best

In today’s blog:
World Cup Specials
Today’s Selections
Review of yesterday’s blog

World Cup Specials
We clawed back some of the opening day losses, but Green’s error robbed us of a hat-trick of correct predictions, and we ended up making only £7.76 on £30.00 staked to leave us with a bank for today of £87.76 (down £12.24).
For Slovenia v Algeria, I am on Slovenia with £6.75 @ 5/4 with Hills and £3.25 on the draw @ 21/10 with Ladbrokes.
Serbia came through a very tough group and can exploit the weaknesses of Ghana who had an exceptionally easy qualifying group; the wager is £8.50 @ 6/5 with Ladbrokes and £1.50 on the draw @ 23/10 with Ladbrokes.
Germany will be very hard to beat and Australia will not be the one to do it; the wager is £8.50 @ 4/7 (available generally) and £1.50 on the draw @ 3/1 (available generally).

Today’s Selections
Today being a Sunday, I take a rest from the racing tho’ I have looked at a horse sent out by Pat Eddery today (see below).

The blog will be back with selections tomorrow.

Review of yesterday’s blog (Saturday 12th June)
The blog selection AVERTOR was a non-runner, which was a bit disappointing.
However, if you read the blog you will be aware that RC Guest has his stable firing and he sent out just one runner yesterday; Be My Deputy at Hexham which was 2nd @ 22/1.
Pat Eddery had one runner out on Friday which was 2nd at 9/2 (subject of a huge gamble) and sent out 2 runners yesterday and they both won at 11/1 and 12/1. He has a single runner out today STORM HAWK in the 4:05 at Doncaster.

There was a great response to the blog yesterday, probably because of the World Cup. Many thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourite. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Saturday, 12 June 2010

AVERTOR

In today’s blog:
World Cup Specials
Today’s Selections
Review of yesterday’s blog
Betting on the Exchanges

World Cup Specials
Not a good start with South Africa scoring first and Mexico equalizing (having had the best of the game) so the draw cost us 1pt (£10).
And Uruguay were unable to score against France, tho’ they did go down to 10-men; and we lost another 1pt (£10) there. With our initial £100 reduced to £80 on the 1st day the policy is cautious today.
I’m on South Korea to beat Greece, but I’ll go “draw no bet” with £6.70 on South Korea @ 9/5 with the Tote and £3.30 on the draw @ 21/10 also with the Tote.

For the Argentina V Nigeria game we could see an attacking Argentina rip Nigeria apart.
England v USA is a game that will have many fans hiding behind the sofa, it will be painful to watch!
That said, they should at least score a goal.
The South Korea game is about to start so I’ll post this blog and add my bets on the other games later.

Today’s Selections
Plenty of racing today, but the focus will be on the World Cup.
Even so, there is only one that catches my eye today and that’s AVERTOR in the Sandown 4:05. This is Roger Charlton’s only runner today and this trainer is bang in form. With 4 wins in past 5 days from just 11 runners. We may have missed the boat as it opened at 8’s this morning (with Paddy Power) and is now best-price at 9/2 with Sportingodds and the Tote. There is nothing in the formbook to recommend it, other than it probably did not like the AW last time out. However, AVERTOR’s dam was Avonbridge (winner of the Prix de L’Abbeye) and a half-sister of Patavallian (also a winner of the Prix De L’Abbeye) so, the potential for improvement as a 4yo is immense. That, and its Charlton’s only runner and there is so much racing to choose from, suggests they are going to Sandown for a reason and that is to win.

Sandown 4:05 – AVERTOR 2pts win @ 9/2

Review of yesterday’s blog (Friday 11th June)
It was the right move to “pass” on Stoute’s 2 runners at Sandown, both were 2nd at 3/1 and 4/1. Ditto, Captain Carey who was the fav at 7/2 but was being ridden over a furlong out and was a well beaten 6th.
At Market Rasen, Chorizo (a previous C&D winner) was the only runner of the day for in-form trainer RC Guest (6w: 7p: 29r) and won at 9/. Even better in the next race when trainer Mrs Normile’s only runner of the day made it 3 wins from 5 runners here with Strobe at 12/1.
Also, Hugh Morrison has hit form having had 4 wins from 8 runners in past 5 days. He has 5 running today, so no possibility of singling one out, but keep an eye open for solitary runners next week.


Betting on the exchanges
There’s not so many blog visitors of a weekend so I’ll post my next Exchange Betting strategy on Monday.

Friday, 11 June 2010

Bafana, Bafana!

In today’s blog:
World Cup Specials
Today’s Selections
Review of yesterday’s blog
Sprinterstogo
Betting on the Exchanges – strategy 2

World Cup Specials
Today marks the start of the first “African” World Cup and this is the start of a World Cup Specials section. With a bank of £100 we are going to make a wager on every game (if possible) with the objective to make as much as possible. There are two games today with the hosts South Africa playing World Cup veterans Mexico, and Uruguay playing France.
I reckon South Africa are in for a rude awakening on the world football stage and Mexico are no pushover; take MEXICO @ 13/8 (Bet365 & Stan James) to win for 1pt (£10).
As for France, they are not the side they were 4 years ago and Uruguay went through qualifying scoring plenty and conceding few. They look huge at 14/5 with Boylesports (as low as 9/4 with others); take URUGUAY @ 14/5 to win for 1pt (£10).

Today’s Selections
There are meetings everywhere today. Of the afternoon Flat meetings; at Sandown, Sir Michael Stoute has a great strike-rate and his runners are in form but both of his here are in tricky races. At York, Saunders CAPTAIN CAREY has all the ticks in the boxes, but I am not a great lover of 5f races. So its onto the evening meetings and if MUREB does not win for Suroor/Dettori in the 6:45 then there is something wrong. Suroor’s only runner of the day. The 7:55 at that meeting is particularly competitive, with only runners of the day from Roger Charlton, Luca Cumani and Barry Hills; this is a race to watch and take note of.
Also this evening at Chepstow, Sir Mark Prescott has his only runner today in the 6:25 CAFÉ ELEKTRIC and is another that should win. Also at that meeting, the fillies maiden at 8:05 is well contested with Stoute, Beckett and Cecil sending single representatives to the course, in Cecil’s case his only runner today. I would be tempted to put all 3 in a combination of straight forecasts (6 in total).
With the rain-storms across the country changing the going, I’m going to give racing selections a miss today and enjoy the football instead. BAFANA, BAFANA!

Review of yesterday’s blog (Thursday 10th June)
Not a good day for the blog selection Artic Shadow, which pulled-up after just a mile. This was after a period of considerable weakness in the market which suggests all was not right with the horse prior to the race. The rules say that a horse should be capable of running to its merits, if it isn’t then it should not run. I took 14/1 and was never in a position to lay-off once the race started.
I was right about the race fav Prophete De Guye and 2nd fav Knock Em Dead – neither was capable of winning the race, and you may have layed those to lose instead.
Although I did not abandon my principle of sticking to trainers-in-form yesterday, I did not provide you with a winner – yet trainers in form were rattling them in. Cumani was 2 from 2 yesterday, Stoute 2 from 3.

Sprinterstogo
I came across this blog a few weeks back and it came up with a cracking winner yesterday in LUCKY NUMBERS at Haydock which I posted up on twitter. At the time posted on the blog it was 10/1 but was the subject of considerable market support having an SP of 4/1. Blog writer “The Laird” focuses on sprinters and he seems to have his finger on the pulse as he has provided a few winners from limited selections in recent weeks. Take note: http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com

Betting on the exchanges
The 2nd strategy for novice punters who have been drawn to horse-racing and this blog by the Royal Ascot meeting. In anticipation of more visits to this blog from browsers looking for “tips” that are unfamiliar with betting exchanges (www.betfair.com), I am writing-up a few scenario’s for novices to have a go at, and the 1st such strategy was published on yesterday’s blog.
Having played the exchanges since the summer of 2001, I’ve been a “bettor”, a layer and a trader at times; and each has its benefits and pitfalls and I’ve probably found them all.

Strategy 2
Racing at Royal Ascot will be ultra-competitive as it is every year and a good way to try and prevent losses accumulating is by adopting a “back-to-lay” policy.
For the major racing festivals and meetings, the liquidity of the exchange markets is huge and there should be no problem placing wagers on the morning of the racing, usually at odds greater than industry SP (starting price).
If you have a fancy for a particular runner, place a wager at the best odds available – and with the increased turnover don’t take the odds available ask for them at the next increment (ie, don’t take 6.20, ask for 6.40 or 6.60). Then, when the money is “on”, place a “lay” to recover your stake at a much lower value. If it’s a close race and your selection is involved in the finish then – so long as at some point the selection looks like having a winning chance – the odds in-running should go below 2.10. What I tend to do is place a “lay” at about 3.05 to recover my stake, and another “lay” at 1.80 to take a small profit.
The upside to this is that if your selection runs well without winning then you are likely (but not guaranteed) to recover your stake, and may even make a profit from the race; the downside is that if your selection wins then you only collect a much reduced payout.

Example: Selection is best-priced at 8/1 with traditional bookmakers, and is priced at 9.40 on the exchanges. Your normal bet is £20 to win.

Place bet on Win market: £20 @ 9.40 anticipated profit (if winning) £168 (less 5% commission)
Place “lay” (and select to “keep” in-running) £20 @ 3.05 anticipated liability £41
Place “lay” (and select to “keep” in-running) £20 @ 1.80 anticipated liability £16

If your selection runs well enough to be involved in the finish without winning then the “lay” set at 3.05 should be taken and you emerge from the race even, without loss. If the selection is in a winning position inside the final furlong then the “lay” set at 1.80 should be taken – you are then in a profit situation (minimum of £20 less 5% commission) win or lose. If your selection wins then you collect the £168 profit from your initial “win” wager, less the liability on the “lays” of £57; profit on winning wager is £111 less 5% commission.

More Exchange betting strategies to follow will appear in the blog in the run-up to Royal Ascot next week.

Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourite. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday, 10 June 2010

Dolphin Rocks

A tremendously brave run for our only selection yesterday DOLPHIN ROCK who won at the generous odds of 9/2. Leading almost from the off, DOLPHIN ROCKS was able to dictate the pace and then, when the challenges came, battle-on bravely to run out a solid winner with a performance that showed a lot of promise. Quite why there was weak support in the market prior to the race is anyone’s guess – I thought the SP would be 3/1 or even shorter (hence my advice to take the 4/1 on offer in the morning). This was trainer TD Barron’s only runner at Haydock and he is a trainer in form having had winners at 13/8 and 7/2 with his sole runners on Sunday and Monday (sent none out on Tuesday) and a 55% strike-rate win & place (5w:6p:20r) and a 75% win & place strike-rate in the past 7-days. His stable is bouncing.

Review of yesterday’s blog (Wednesday 10th June)
A great day for the blog yesterday as, along with a 9/2 winner from our only selection, we spotted the weakness of the Sir Michael Stoute runner JEDI sent nearly 300 miles to Hamilton. At the time of posting, JEDI was 9/4 and that looked short to me, but the money kept pouring on from the Stoute supporters who thought him a good thing. I said in the blog that “I fear the horse will want further than this 12f, as his half-brothers Hi Calypso and Warringah did” and that’s how it proved, the horse coming home 4th at 7/4 and the RP race-comment was “He left the impression that he will be suited by a longer trip”. If you want the best racing advice and comment, read the Wayward Lad blog.

Today’s Selections
Plenty of flat racing today at Nottingham, Newbury and Yarmouth this afternoon and Haydock this evening. However, it is at Uttoxeter this evening that my attention has been drawn and the 3-mile class 4 handicap chase at 7:40. The fav for this race, Prophete De Guye, won a weak race over C&D last-time-out and has a 7lb penalty for that win. Technically 2lb “well-in” as his handicap rating has gone up 9lb but has yet to take effect, he will be the focus of the shop-punters. This is the chasing debut for 2nd-fav Knock Em Dead and this is a tough initiation. I was initially drawn to Skippers Lad who missed most of the winter campaign waiting for the return of good going which he gets today. The trip of 3-mile will suit him too, but a glance through the form-book shows that ARTIC SHADOW gave him 6lb and a 5-length beating over C&D last July. ARTIC SHADOW also does not like soft going and ran 4 times on it without success over the winter, including pulling-up LTO. His trainer Tim Vaughan is in rare form having sent out 9 winners from 22 runners in the last 11 days, so we know his string are fit to run a race. I would rate Skippers Lad a 5/1 chance (he’s available at 10/1 generally) but he is a bit of a plodder, and as ARTIC SHADOW is 7lb better-off with him on their last meeting (when he beat Skippers Lad by 5-lengths!) and given the form his trainer is in and with going and trip in his favour, he's rated a 3/1 chance. As he’s available at 12/1 with the Tote (10’s and 11’s elsewhere) he must rate todays value wager.

Uttoxeter 7:40 - ARTIC SHADOW @ 1pt each-way @ 12/1

Betting on the exchanges
With Royal Ascot next week, I’ve noticed there is a lot more activity regarding racing threads on twitter and this is likely to increase to a “climax” on Ladies Day next Thursday. In anticipation of more visits to this blog from browsers looking for “tips” that are unfamiliar with betting exchanges (www.betfair.com), I am writing-up a few scenario’s for novices to have a go at.
Having played the exchanges since the summer of 2001, I’ve been a “bettor”, a layer and a trader at times; and each has its benefits and pitfalls and I’ve probably found them all.

Strategy 1
A simple way to offer some protection to your wagers is to place a bet using both the win market and the place-only markets. The place-only market can offer some real value if your selection is not one of the market leaders, especially if you place your bet a couple of hours before the race.
First, decide on the amount of money you are prepared to wager on your selection (for this example we’ll use £20). On the place-only market for the race find the odds available for your selection then divide your stake by those odds; that is the amount to wager on the place-only market on your selection. For example, if the place-only odds for your selection are 3.20
£20 ÷ 3.20 = £6.25
Then, place the remaining balance of your wager (£20 - £6.25 = £13.75) on your selection in the “win” market.
If your selection runs well enough to be placed then you lose nothing (well, just 5% commission on place market winnings of £13.75); but if your selection wins then you collect big-style.
This style of betting offers the “protection” of an each-way bet but, as the stakes are adjusted according to the odds by a simple calculation, it maximises the return should your selection win.

More Exchange betting strategies to follow will appear in the blog in the run-up to Royal Ascot next week.

Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Wednesday, 9 June 2010

Clash of the Titans

The news that Derby winner WORKFORCE is entered for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot is tremendous.
Let’s hope that the horse makes the race and that O’Brien sends over Fame And Glory for a true “clash of the titans” and a battle between the generations.
It’s a long time since the Derby winner met the older horses in the Ascot race and this could well be a return to the glory years.

Review of yesterday’s blog (Tuesday 8th June)
Not a great day for the blog.
Henry Cecil’s ON HER WAY was reluctant to go to the post and looks likely to have run her last race. Henry Candy’s HOOLIGAN SEAN ran his heart out, up with the pace throughout, but faltered near the line and just lost 3rd place by just a nose. JACK DAWKINS never got in the race and trailed in last.
The only “light” in the blog was advising to give LUTINE BELL a miss, as he came home a poor 8th at the short odds of 11/8.

Today’s Selections
There are 4 flat meetings at Beverley, Hamilton, Yarmouth and Haydock.
There is nothing that excites me running at Beverley.
At Haydock, trainer TD Barron sends just DOLPHIN ROCK for the 3:50. At first glance this looks a tough assignment but there have been 3 withdrawn in this race and DOLPHIN ROCK has improved a lot since moving to Barron and that improvement may not yet have peaked. Odds of 4/1 are available, and it may be best to take that.
There’s a meeting at Hamilton this evening and the major race there is the Lanark Silver Bell handicap. Sir Michael Stoute sends one up for this. He’s a rare visitor having sent just 4 here in the past 5 seasons and finding success with 2 of those. But his runner in this – JEDI – will need to improve on his latest run, and I fear the horse will want further than this 12f, as his half-brothers Hi Calypso and Warringah did, and stock of his sire Pivotal usually want a bit of “give” in the going. I would not take a short price about this one, and current odds of 9/4 look too short to me.
Give Yarmouth a wide berth.

So, just the one selection; DOLPHIN ROCK in the 3:50 at Haydock, take 4/1.

Looking ahead
Next week is Royal Ascot and I will be giving the racing the full form study treatment between now and next Tuesday.

Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourite. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tuesday, 8 June 2010

Sporting Double – World Cup and Royal Ascot

What a cracking start to the summer we have next week with England playing their opening group match on Saturday and Royal Ascot starting next Tuesday.
Much as I want England to do well I have to be realistic and, with their effort revolving around Wayne Rooney, the risk of elimination before the final is high. My idea of the tournament winner is Argentina.
Royal Ascot is one of my favourite meetings and provides the backbone of form to rely on for the rest of the summer months.

Review of yesterday’s blog (Monday 7th June)
Talk about hitting the crossbar! Both the selections were 2nd with BESTY taking advantage of the draw and going 4 lengths clear 2f out, he was collared by the odds-on fav just 75 yards from the line and went down by less-than a length. I advised taking the 11/1 in the morning ew and BESTY started at 15/2. NIGHT LILY also went close, coming with a rattling run and just failing by a head to beat the rank outside and long-time leader. I advised taking the 11/2 in the morning and NIGHT LILY started at 9/2. This was a great ew double.

I also highlighted YOU CAN OF COURSE and - although not nominated as a selection – he ran a good 3rd having been subject to a lot of support to start the 7/2 fav (was 13/2 when blog was published).

Today’s Selections
There are meetings at Salisbury and Redcar this afternoon.

At Salisbury, Henry Candy sends HOOLIGAN SEAN for the 3:55 – his full brother won this race last year, tho’ this will be more difficult. Henry Cecil had 2 winners yesterday and he has just ON HER WAY for the 4:30. Her half-sister Chater Way was rated OR103 before going to Hong Kong and this looks a great opportunity, especially as Cecil has a 32% strike-rate here. Current odds of 5/1 look fair.

At Redcar, Sir Mark Prescott sends his only runner today 208 miles for the 3:00 – LUTINE BELL. The man has his stable “on fire” at the moment but, even so, I cannot have this one at current odds of 7/4. Dandy Nicholls has his stable hitting form with Royal Ascot round the corner and he send 2 horses to Redcar, of which JACK DAWKINS in the 3:55 looks very interesting. Didn’t run well LTO, but he usually needs a run and that’s how it was last season when he won off OR90. He’s back to that rating today and warrants ew interest at 25/1 (Blue Square) as he’s just 14’s in some places.

Looking ahead
Next week is Royal Ascot and - so long as the rain stays away - we can expect a feast of racing.

Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourite. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Monday, 7 June 2010

Workforce – another Sea The Stars?

Can lightening strike twice? Can we be lucky enough to have a Derby winner as good as Sea The Stars again with Workforce this summer? Well, it happened with Nijinsky in 1970 and Mill Reef in 1971 (and don’t forget the greatest racehorse of the 20th Century – Brigadier Gerard – born in the same year as Mill Reef); so it is possible. It is all dependent on whether this performance can be repeated against older horses – that is the true measure of greatness. What is unfortunate is that Sea The Stars is not around this season to provide the ultimate yardstick – however, Fame And Glory would have been a worthy 3yo champion colt in any other year and he could prove an able opponent to Workforce.

However, what about Extreme Impact? The 4yo half-brother Workforce now a gelding and in training with Evan Williams, having been sold out of Dermot Weld’s yard last October for just 10,000 guineas after 2 poor runs as a 3yo. Could this horse be destined for future jumping glory – the 1st half-brother to a Derby winner to take the Gold Cup? It cannot be out of the question for connections to reconsider a return to the flat with him.

Review of last blog (Thursday 3rd June)
From a shortlist of 7 qualifiers, which was narrowed down to just 3 - there being 2 qualifiers in 1 race; another was outclassed (I provided the name of the winner); and the other was in a very competitive race – the blog provided 2 winners @ ‘evens’ and 4/9 and a 2nd @ 9/1 (opened at 14’s) in DYLANESQUE that was beaten just a head having led to about 10 yards before the line.

Today’s Selections
Apologies for the late posting of today’s blog – I try and publish my blog before noon – but there’s nothing at the afternoon meetings at Folkstone or Newton Abbot that take my fancy today. Trainer, Neil Mulholland has an interesting one at Newton Abbot in the last race at 5:00pm in YOU CAN OF COURSE who ran very consistently and well last autumn. Off for the worst of the winter, he returned with a lacklustre display 5-weeks ago and should strip fitter today. He has a decent claimer in Mark Quinlan who gets a valuable 8lb, but for me the value has gone already as YCOC is now 13/2 (Corals) from 8’s.

There’s better racing at Pontefract and Windsor on the flat tonight.

At Pontefract in the 8:15 there is Brian Smart’s only runner today BESTY who ran met the improving sprinter Kelly’s Eye LTO (has won again since). BESTY has the best of the draw tonight and his half-brother Brunelleschi prefers 6f over 5f. Could be a good value each-way punt at 11/1 (generally).

Paul D’Arcy can do no wrong and his only runner today NIGHT LILY still looks well-treated despite a 6lb hike for beating subsequent winner Johnny Lesters Hair; the current 11/2 available generally looks good value.

Blog Of The Week
From last week it has to be The NHC run by Dan Kelly (http://thenhc.blogspot.com).
This young man is very selective with his wagers and leaves no stone unturned in his form-study. I must admit to being a follower of his blog and so far he’s done me proud.

Visitor stats
Thursday 3rd June was my best day for site visits so far when 20 regulars visited the blog. It may not be many, but I presume that you are all racing enthusiasts with an eye for a wager and looking for an angle to put you ahead of the crowd and on the value side of punting. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourite. Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday, 3 June 2010

The times they are changing

Great start to yesterday’s review of the trainers in form with a clever win from FORJATT at the remarkable odds of 6/4, given it was put-up at 8/11 in the RP BF.

Next up was CITY STYLE who, tho’ outclassed by rival Rio De La Plata ran on well enough to come 3rd at the generous odds of 9/1.

Then it was the first of my “naps” FOREST CROWN and, as expected, this 3yo filly who is a half-sister to Group 1 winner Crowded House improved considerably on her earlier run and won “head-in-chest”. This horse ran off OR83 and on this display could be 110+.

Cumani’s LUC JORDAN may have been thought to have disappointed but Mark Johnston had sent Submariner over 200 miles for this and the stable money was down. Even so, there was a significant market move for Cumani’s horse from 4/1 in the morning to 5/2 at the off.

Stoute’s only runner TIMELESS STRIDE was expected to do the business – and was my next “nap” – but again there was a major gamble going-down on another, the eventual winner Kellys Eye who won this with tonnes in hand.

I thought John Gosden’s ZANAZZI looked very green early on, but he ran on well over the final quarter-mile to finish 2nd beating the race fav, and I would expect it to improve an enormous amount for the experience.

There was a huge move for Baldings only runner WHITE DEVIL – my 3rd “nap” - from 16’s this morning (it was 10/1 at the time I posted my blog) to 4/1 before settling to 6/1 at the off. It was only beaten half-a-length into 2nd.

For those of you who trade the exchanges, my qualifiers have performed well as a trader does not need to find a winner to turn a profit. If you have benefitted then leave a comment, thanks.

There are 7 trainers “in-form” with just a single runner today:-
M Johnston with LADY ÉCLAIR in the Hamilton 4:40 – should win this;
B Smart with STORM COMMAND in the 5:10 at Hamilton (Sir Mark Prescott has his only Hamilton runner in this race – Bona Foruna);
W Haggas with DEVER DREAM in the Lingfield 4:50 – should win this;
M Bell with RED AMY in the Lingfield 2:50 – looks a tricky handicap;
M Jarvis (who can do no wrong at the moment) with DYLANESQUE in the Sandown 7:15 – this half-sister to Alessandro Volta (3rd in Irish Derby) should be capable of huge improvement on its 2yo form;
Barry Hills with HAIL PROMENADER and A Balding with ISPHAHAM both in the Sandown 7:50.

I wont be able to post the in-form trainers over the next few days as I’m away on a break (off to see my 7yo son who lives with his mum in Cornwall) but I will return on Monday. If you are enjoying the profits of this blog posting then please leave a comment. There are not many of you out there from the blog visitor stats (probably only 20 or so) as such, currently you’re able to exploit what I consider is a “gap” in the market. You can also find me on twitter (Wayward_Lad) and I usually send out a “tweet” when the blog page is posted (saves you scanning the blog page when there’s nothing new to read).

Keep winning with Wayward Lad!

Wednesday, 2 June 2010

The Dirty Dozen

Yesterday, there were six trainers “in-form” (that is, having achieved a 40%+ strike-rate win & place, from all runners in the past 14-days) with just a solitary runner; from the six there were 2 winners:-
TUPELO - sent out by Paul D’Arcy to win the 6:15 at Yarmouth at 9/4, and
GREEN POPPY - sent out by Brian Smart to win the 5:30 at Redcar at 9/2.

Neither of these horses had any real chance based on the form-book, yet both won “comfortably”. GREEN POPPY making-all and winning unchallenged, and TUPELO winning cleverly under a good ride by Liam Jones after being the subject of a considerable gamble from 7/1 in the morning (was 10/1 in the RP BF) to start at 9/4. That was the 5th winning 2yo from 8 sent to Yarmouth by Paul D’Arcy in recent seasons – take note.

Of the others, both TOP TIGRESS from Willie Haggas and KAYAAN from Sir Michael Stoute were the subject of good market support but neither justified it. LUCKY ART from Mrs Carr, and my selection from the six, BEACON HILL from John Gosden's yard; both finished down the field – although BEACON HILL was the subject of a market move from 6/1 in the morning to 9/4. With 2 winners from the six qualifiers producing a 2.75pt profit to a 1pt level stake and lots more available at morning prices (could have been 6pts+) it may be worth wagering on every qualifier irrespective of chance on the formbook.

There is a huge number of qualifiers today. There are 24 trainers with a 40%+ strikerate, and 12 send out a single runner from their stable.

To Nottingham this afternoon:-
M Jarvis (68.2% strikerate) sends FORJATT for the 3:45 – currently 8/11 fav
Al Zarooni (50.0%) sends CITY STYLE for the 4:50 – currently 6/1
R Beckett (52.6%) sends FOREST CROWN for the 5:25 (5/1) and Paul D’Arcy sends his LADY PATTERN (14/1) for the same race.

To Ripon this evening:-
W Haggas (42.9%) sends SILVER SHINE for the 6:40 – currently 7/1
Sir M Stoute (50.0%) sends TIMELESS STRIDE for the 7:40 – currently 5/2 fav
Mrs Carr (46.7%) sends EXCUSEZ MOI for the 8:10 – currently 14/1
J Hetherton (62.5%) sends KING IN WAITING for the 9:10 – currently 11/4 fav

To Kempton this evening :-
Luca Cumani (63.2%) sends LUC JORDAN for the 6:50 – currently 4/1
John Gosden (44.8%) sends ZANAZZI for the 7:50 – currently 9/4
A Balding (48.4%) sends WHITE DEVIL for the 8:50 (10/1) and Alan Bailey (50.0%) sends his TEWIN WOOD (9/1) for the same race.

I wont even try to sort that lot out but the one’s I am most interested in are:-
Stoute’s TIMELESS STRIDE making the long trip up to Ripon from Newmarket (this one has 3 relatives rated 15lb+);

Beckett’s FOREST CROWN at Nottingham as several others from the same dam have OR’s above 100 and this could mature into a decent mare;

Balding’s WHITE DEVIL at Kempton mainly as Balding has a great record here and this horse handles the AW and yet still looks unexposed on the surface.

Tuesday, 1 June 2010

St Nicholas Abbey out of Derby

Strange day was Saturday. Lots of racing yet none of it seemed exciting. The trainer in-form selections didn't produce a winner, although Al Zarooni's ECLIPTIC ran a cracker to be 2nd at 13/2. For me, TOMBI was disappointing as it looked (on paper) to hold half a chance. The winner of that race - LOOK BUSY - was tipped-up by another blog that I follow (http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com/) and that blog also gave the Haydock winner HIGH STANDING to make it 2 from 2 on the day. I'm not a great follower of sprinters and if you want a decent opinion of their relative merits then give that blog a look.

Another blog I follow (http://laytheplacebet.blogspot.com/) had its recent run of success come to an end with only 1 succesful lay from 6 selections over the bank holiday weekend. Let's hope he pulls it around this week as place-laying can be a solid cash-cow if you play the odds right.

I place-laid just a single runner on Saturday at Catterick (its not something I put up on the blog before-hand as I watch the market odds and they only really develop in the 20 mins before the off) BECKERMET in the class 3, 7f handicap with 9-runners and the fav at 7/2, and 5 runners at 8/1 or shorter in the RP betting forecast. Competitive field and I thought Beckermet would be 8/1+ as from 24 races over 7f or longer its never-ever won and only been placed 6 times - all its wins have been over 5-6f, so clearly it does not stay 7f. Add to that Catterick favours a front-runner and there were 2 in the field so a good clip was guaranteed and it was a no-brainer. I could not believe it when I saw Beckermet was 4/1 and I place-laid at an average of 2.05 - it came 7th and the race-report says it all "prominent early, mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong".


Back to todays racing, and there's an interesting jumps meeting at Ffos Las tonight. None of my "trainer in-form" selections come from there tho'. There are 24 flat trainers with a 40%+ strike-rate "win & place" in the past 14-days, and today 14 of them send out runners, and 6 send out just a single horse to the track:-
W Haggas in the Yarmouth 6:45 with KAYAAN
Sir M Stoute in the Yarmouth 6:45 with TOP TIGRESS
I'll give these 3yo maidens a miss in this.
P D'Arcy in the Yarmouth 6:15 with TUPELO
Another one that should be passed-over, this being a class 6 2yo "seller", however D'Arcy has a tremendous 30% strike-rate at Yarmouth and is 4 wins from 8, 2yo runners.
Mrs R A Carr in the Redcar 4:00 with LUCKY ART
Mrs Carr has her string in tip-top form (only unplaced runner at the weekend was Beckermet - see above) but this lover of Thirsk will want it softer than today's Goo0to-Firm.
B Smart in the Redcar 5:30 with GREEN POPPY
Another class 6, this time a 6f amateur riders race for which GREEN POPPY is the RP fav - why? A race best avoided.
Which leaves us with John Gosden's BEACON HILL in the 4:45 at Leicester. Gosden is 9 from 27 here and 2 from 8 with his 2yo's and that is good enough for me despite it being a hotly contested maiden.

So that's today selections:
BEACON HILL 1pt e/w in the Leicester 4:45 - currently 6/1 (don't take less than 5/1).
I expect a better run from TUPELO but it needs a proverbial "rocket" to win this - has Mr D'Arcy worked the oracle?

And finally, Aidan O'Brien has pulled one-time Derby fav St Nicholas Abbey from the race with a "suspected pulled-muscle" - I doubt it will see the track again, and should now go straight to the paddocks in Kentucky.