Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Since March 2010, this blog has recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

For the 2016-17 Jumps Season, this blog recorded a LOSS of £40.87

from wagers on 55 individual races (6 winners, 12 placed)

Total Staked = £609.00

There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives 30% of your lost wagers.

advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 20 January 2018

Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock

It's been a tricky week for following the horses, but all came good yesterday at Chepstow.  I didn't write a blog as my early thoughts were that the racing looked too tough (and I had a busy morning of meetings at the office that stopped me posting a blog).  However, the form worked out well and I ended up having progressively larger wagers on the fav's at Chepstow which all won - yes, every race at Chepstow yesterday was won by the fav. When I read the Racing Post yesterday I could not see anything opposing BECAUSESHESAIDSO in the final race on the card and expected the horse to start at under 2/1 - so the early 6/1 was very welcome and appreciated when the horse eventually won by 14-lengths.

Saturday brings us 3 meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Taunton with soft or very heavy ground at all 3 meetings and as I write there have already been a host of non-runners declared.  The Bet365 Chase over 2m5f at Ascot at 3:00pm is an interesting race. The early fav for this 6-runner race is Acting Lass who has won both of his chase starts, and he races off OR143 which means he's giving 4lb to Guitar Pete who we know is a proven chaser who will handle the ground and he looks at his best now with trainer Nicky Richards. Robinshill will likely not stay this trip on this ground, and Kilcrea Vale would be of interest if he could recapture his form of last season but, again. One who could be a big player is Fortunate George who won here at Ascot in November over 2m5f, but made an early error here LTO over 3-mile which essentially took him out of the race. If he jumps well early-on he could be thereabouts as he has no stamina doubts and should  handle the ground. Finally, Minella Daddy returns from a 390-day break and we just don't know how fit he will be. At the odds, the 3/1 available on GUITAR PETE looks value to me as I'm surprised he's not the fav for this race.

The meeting at Haydock looks particularly tricky as when it's heavy ground there you know the racing will be tough - and watching the weather forecast on the tv, there cold be snow at Haydock this afternoon!  The feature race is the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase over almost 3m2f (at 3:15pm) and the fav is Hainan who won here on heavy ground LTO over 3m4f but only 4 horses finished that race which makes it difficult to rate and I think he has to prove he's up to OR140. Rock The Kasbah has to prove he can handle this ground as he was beaten on similar as a hurdler when odds-on. Tintern Theatre looks an out & out staying chaser and so why didn't he race over 3-mile as a hurdler? Yala Enki will ensure the race is a stamina test but he looks weighted to his best on OR147.  Walk In The Mill was beaten fair'n'square LTO so will heavy ground suit him better? It could be worth having a punt on a longshot, and Captain Redbeard won the Tommy Whittle Chase LTO here in December and is up 9lb for that win but he does run this course well and he's 12/1. Knockanrawley could be thereabouts if he's been slow coming to fitness this season, but he had every chance to show his best LTO.  For me, it's an eachway wager on CAPTAIN REDBEARD at 12/1 (quarter-odds 1,2,3 with Bet365).

That's my 2 for the day:-
Ascot 3:00 GUITAR PETE - £10 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
Haydock 3:15 CAPTAIN REDBEARD - £5 eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Thursday, 18 January 2018

Lower the grade, higher the risk

One of the problems with weekday wagers on horseracing is that lower grades have a higher risk due to the imponderables of lower consistency of performance, inexperience, and lack of decent form-lines. Last week, I did quite well with my personal wagers (I usually have a small wager every day, more often than not it will be a place-only wager) and made a profit on 5 of the 6 days - I don't usually bet on a Sunday. This week, luck hasn't been going my way and on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday I've lost, thankfully it has only been small amounts. 
Take yesterday as an example.
After reading the form on the train on the way into the office (I've given up taking the laptop on the train as the wifi and mobile signal from my phone is too weak and reception is sporadic - 5 years ago (before 4G) the signal was excellent - what's happened?) with the Racing Post paper coming into its own and the most technological tool used being my highlighter pen (orange), I narrowed down a few likely wagers. There were 2 place-only and one potential "win" wagers. The first to run was at Market Rasen in the 2m7f handicap hurdle at 1:00pm which was a Class 4 race and in the morning there were 12 runners with the early fav One Of Us the most likely winner as I could not find anything to oppose him with. As such, I was on the hunt for a place-only opportunity especially as the exchanges were offering a market for 4 places on the race. I decided MOIDORE had a decent chance of being in the 1st-4: only runner of trainer Charles Pogson who has a decent strike-rate at Market Rasen with hurdlers, the horse was a C&D winner and a winner over the trip on heavy ground after which he was rated OR134 in June 2016 and he'd spent much of 2017 running in Class 3 races. As a consequence, his rating had slipped to OR108 and after a break he'd run well over 2m7f on his return in November LTO.  I thought the race had little depth to it and when the early fav One Of Us was declared a non-runner I was really surprised that the odds on the horse "place-only" to 4-places was 3.10 or 2/1. Sure enough, the horse was going well being covered-up at the rear of the closely packed field, and looked untroubled by the pace of the race and, as they went into the final circuit, the in-running odds for a 1st-4 place went odds-on.  At that point, disaster struck, as the horse bundled-through the 8th flight (of the 11 to be jumped) and un-shipped his jockey! The way the race panned-out I have doubts that MOIDORE would have won, but I feel almost certain he'd have been in the 1st-4, if not the 1st-3, had he not made that jumping error. 
Just twenty minutes later, my 2nd wager of the day ran at Newbury, the Nicky Henderson trained PERCY STREET.  The horse had run 6th (off 22) in the Grade 3 "Fred Winter" Juvenile 2-mile handicap hurdle off OR124.  After a few disappointing runs he had dropped to OR115 and so was dropped into this Class 4 event.  I had taken the early 9/2 and was "sitting pretty" when the race started and the odds on PERCY STREET were 3/1. Unfortunately, the reason why he'd dropped to OR115 quickly became apparent as the horse looks to have lost interest in the game. 
By now I wasn't too happy, but was still hopeful of turning things around with my 3rd selection of the afternoon, which was again a "place-only" wager.  It was the 3:00pm at Newbury, a 2m7f Class 3 handicap chase with 10 runners, and I did not have a great deal of confidence in the markets leaders - Indy Five was having only his 2nd chase race, and Kimberlite Candy was only the fav as he was ridden by Barry Geraghty.  I had previously wagered on TWO SMOKIN BARRELS when he'd run 2nd at Lingfield over this trip in November, so I knew he stayed the trip if he was a bit one-paced.  I thought he was unlucky to fall at the 1st-fence when he last ran on Boxing Day so I thought he had an excellent chance of making the 1st-4 as (again) this race appeared to lack depth.  As the race turned-out, both the market leaders departed early-on, and my selection was going particularly well as they entered the final mile of the race.  TWO SMOKIN BARRELS actually led jumping the 2nd-last fence, but his lack of pace showed again, and he was unable to stay with the leading pair who went on to dispute the finish - but he did plug on to be 3rd, and saved my day.
It's a tricky day today, and of the meetings I prefer the racing at Ludlow to Wincanton.  It is interesting that Jonjo O'Neill puts his talented son, the 7lb claimer Jonjo O'Neill, on CHAMPAGNE AT TARA in the 3-mile handicap chase at 2:00pm.  I tipped this horse when he ran at the Cheltenham Festival last March over 2-mile, and he has a touch of class.  Whether he will stay this 3-mile trip is debateable but, if he does, he could go well. The obvious wager in this race is confirmed stayer and mud lover, Sego Success.  The Hunter-Chase at 3:10pm on the same card is between Mendip Express, who is a horse I've followed for the past couple of seasons, and Virak having his hunter-chase debut. If Virak is anywhere near his old form then he will surely win this race. However, the race for my "place-only" wager is the 3-mile handicap hurdle at 3:45pm and the horse that catches my eye is VINEGAR HILL. He is the only runner here from trainer Stuart Edmunds who doesn't send many to Ludlow.  He's won a couple of 3-mile hurdle races and has recently been chasing, but was pulled-up LTO (in the race in which Two Smokin Barrels fell at the 1st fence) after making a bad error.  At first I thought this was just a confidence building race but, at the ratings, I think the horse has a serious chance. He's currently at 3.80 (or 11/4) to be in the 1st-3 or, if you are feeling a little more risk averse, he's 2.60 (or 6/4) to be in the 1st-4.  I've taken the 3.80 to be in the 1st-3.

Monday, 15 January 2018

Another 2 winners & a cracking day for the blog

For regular readers of the blog, Saturday was another cracking day with 4 races reviewed finding 2 winners in BIG JIM (advised at 11/2, won with an SP of 5/2) and WESTEND STORY (advised at 11/4, won with an SP of 2/1).  Add to that the pointer about champion jockey Richard Johnson going to ride at Wetherby and was sure to be on a winner or two, and the great man ws in top-form there riding 4 winners from 6 rides at odds of 5/2, 4/1, 2/1 and 11/4 with his losing rides having SP's of 14/1 (horse had no chance) and 11/8 which came in 2nd beaten just a length.  A £1 win "Canadian" (5 selections in doubles, trebles, and accumulators) on the 5 horses with early-morning odds under 10/1 would have returned £496.75 for a £26 outlay, and that is at returned starting prices.

I had some good feedback on twitter, including one generous gesture from a winning reader of the blog who donated £50 to the Retired Greyhound Trust of £50 on my behalf. Remember, the blog is free-to-all, in the past I've only charged a nominal sum for sending the blog out early by email (before it goes online) but this season, as I'm taking more of a "back-seat", I have put that service on hold for the time being until my circumstances change.  The donate button is still "live" and if you want to make  contribution by way of a "thanks for the advice", please do - or if you would rather make a donation to a registered charity on my behalf from your winnings please contact me via twitter and I will recommend a suitable charity.

Regular readers of the blog will know that I have a share in a syndicate managed by Nick Bradley, and another of his syndicates had a tremendous result on Sunday when Doctor Phoenix won the Grade A Dan Moore Memorial (handicap) Chase at Fairyhouse worth 59,000 Euros to the winner!  Nick Bradley picked up this horse at the sales at the end of the 2016-17 jumps season for just £10,000 and sent the horse to Gordon Elliot and the horse has now won 2 of his 4 starts since joining him.  I have to admit, I thought the horse did not have much improvement in him but Gordon Elliot has proved me wrong and he's found at least 10lb and there may be a bit more to come. Soft ground, an extended 2-mile trip, and a strong pace to chase are what suits Doctor Phoenix best and connections have entered the horse for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham where I expect they will looking for some place money to pay for the drinks bill!

There are just 2 meetings today at Ayr and Plumpton, and with the ground likely to be very soft or heavy at both meetings due to the atrocious weather blitzing the country today, I can't advise a wager (I don't like Mondays, anyway) and if you are having a wager, I'd suggest keeping stakes small. 

Saturday, 13 January 2018

Another good winner for the blog

What a cracking start to 2018 - just 2 blogs written this week on Thursday (my first of the year) and Friday, and both found a winner with my main recommended wager. After DRESDEN won Thursday at and SP of 5/2, yesterday I tipped FLY HOME HARRY who won at an SP of 7/1.  When I post a blog in the week I will post a link to it on twitter.
You probably know my twitter handle @wayward_lad and I suggest that you follow me on twitter if you don't want to miss a blog.

There is some good racing today with meetings at Warwick, Wetherby and Kempton with the Betfred Classic handicap chase at Warwick at 3:35pm being the highlight of the day, and Missed Approach who I tipped for glory in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury (probably just lacked a bit of fitness that day) can find compensation in this. He's been dropped 6lb in the handicap which is a bonus, and the soft ground should not be a problem as he's won over 3-mile on heavy ground. Goodtoknow ran 2nd in this race last year when beaten by subsequent Grand National winner One For Arthur, but he came into that race in better form than he's shown this year. The horse I fear most is course winner Krackatoa King who stays this trip well and come into the race in top form. His riders 5lb allowance could make all the difference as he will be carrying 17lb less than Missed Approach.  Unfortunately, the best odds available this morning is 5/1 (there was plenty of 7/1 last night) and so the best of the value has gone. That Richard Johnson has opted not to ride (and his book of rides at Wetherby isn't great) suggests there is a doubt over whether he will stay this trip carry top-weight of 11st 12lb.  It's one of these "win or bust" wagers, don't bother with eachway on Missed Approach

 Earlier on the card, the 2-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 1:15pm looks an interesting betting race as the fav Swift Crusader didn't stay 2m4f LTO and it's hoped this return to 2-mile will see a return to form.  I'm not so sure, and as I think Azzuri has "topped-out" at OR129 it may pay to look at the 9yo BIG JIM who has missed most of last season (only ran once) and ran ok on his seasonal debut in November. He should improve on that today and if he can recapture the form of his last win in April 2016 then off OR120 he could be hard to beat.  Odds of 11/2 are available and that looks value to me for a horse that won this race in 2016.

The 3-mile Class 2 handicap hurdle at 2:25pm is the sort of race I like - competitive, and yet over a trip that will sort out the proper stayers from the also-rans. Top-weight Prime Venture could be very good or his 12lb uplift inthe handicap for his LTO win could be a bit much. The fav is the 6yo Black Ivory but he didn't win on his only try at this trip and yet races off a mark 10lb higher than he did on that day - I think he can be opposed. The horse I like in this race is THE ORGANIST who is a proven stayer, comes here in form and has no problem with the ground - odds of 7/1 look a fair to me.  Given the competitive nature of this race, eachway is the way to go.

Wetherby is interesting as champion jockey Richard Johnson rides there. I expect the reason he's at Wetherby is to ride the promising 7yo hurdler Westend Story in the 2:50pm Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m4f as the form of his race LTO has worked out very well and he could possibly be about 7lb well-in running off an unchanged mark of OR124. As such, odds of 11/4 look good value to me.

What I will be placing wagers on today are:-
Warwick 3:35 - MISSED APPROACH - £10 win @ 5/1
and KRACKATOA KING - £5 eachway @ 9/1
Warwick 1:15 - BIG JIM - £5 win @ 11/2
Warwick 2:25 - THE ORGANIST - £5 eachway @ 7/1
Wetherby 2:50 - WESTEND STORY - £10 win @ 11/4